—
Built from TradingView webhook data. Candles update from confirmed 1H heartbeats. Signal markers show confirmed LONG / SHORT transitions.
Nine years of NAS100 1H signal testing. Selected 3x signal model: +714%. Underlying 1x engine: +432.58%. Cost stress (+0.3%/order): +238.42%. Tabs below show frequency, long/short split, equity curve and risk detail.
Export accounting note: the 1x signal engine produced $374,491 in realised closed-trade P&L across 94 closed trades. The export snapshot including one then-open position was $471,902. The NAS100 buy & hold reference for the same period was approximately $398,828. These 1x accounting details are shown here for completeness; the 3x selected model (+714%) is the headline comparison.
On average 10.6 signals per year — roughly one every 34 days. The strategy is medium-frequency position trading, not intraday or swing.
The last data point (trade #95) reflects the then-open LONG position at export time. Realised equity ends at trade #94 at $374,491. The open P&L is mark-to-market and subject to change.
Backtest Disclaimer: All results are based on historical simulation of a 1x NAS100 Cash CFD on Capital.com / TradingView, with no spread or commission applied unless noted. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The open-trade P&L is mark-to-market and subject to change.
The 2026 figures are partial-year (YTD). The open position (#95) is classified as a signal event but its P&L is not included in the realised net profit of $374,491. This is not financial advice.
▲ Long Signal Logic
Price must sustain above the 250-bar moving average. If price stays above the upper hysteresis band for 75 consecutive bars, a Long signal fires. Any active Short is closed and the strategy switches to Long.
▼ Short Signal Logic
Price must sustain below the 250-bar moving average. If price stays below the lower hysteresis band for 75 consecutive bars, a Short signal fires. Any active Long is closed and the strategy switches to Short.
Early Short Exit (−30%)
When the strategy is Short and price recovers above the MA, it can flip back to Long after approximately 53 bars (75 × 0.70) — bypassing the normal cooldown. The Long side outperformed Short significantly in backtests, so this asymmetry is intentional.
Hysteresis Band (0.05%)
A tiny buffer of 0.05% around the MA prevents micro-oscillations directly at the MA line from counting as real signal changes. This materially reduces whipsaws in sideways markets.
Cooldown (135 bars)
After a normal direction change, no new counter-signals are accepted for 135 bars. This guards against excessive back-and-forth during choppy conditions. The early short-exit mechanism is explicitly allowed to override the cooldown.
Max Entry Distance (5%)
New signals are only accepted when price is within 5% of the MA. This prevents late entries after extreme moves where the risk/reward ratio is already unfavorable.
The selected public signal is the 3x interpretation of the 1H NAS100 regime model. The underlying 1x engine is shown to separate signal quality from leverage. The 0.3% stress test shows how the edge holds under realistic costs. Benchmarks are shown for direct comparison.
| Model / Scenario | Role | Return | Max Drawdown | Trades | Win Rate | Profit Factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selected Extra Signal · 3x Active Long/Short Selected public model | 3x signal | ~+714% | ~66% | — | — | — |
| Underlying 1x Signal Engine (early short exit −30%) Selected 1x engine | 1x engine | +432.58% | 19.06% | 96 | 45.83% | 2.20 |
| 0.3% Cost Stress Test Stress tested | Stress | +238.42% | 22.39% | 94 | 40.43% | 1.692 |
| NAS100 Buy & Hold (1x) Passive benchmark | Benchmark | ~+214% | ~38% | — | — | — |
| MSCI World (1x) Global benchmark | Benchmark | ~+191% | ~28% | — | — | — |
The 3x figures are extrapolated from the 1x NAS100 CFD backtest. Benchmarks (NAS100 1x, MSCI World 1x) show unleveraged buy & hold returns over the same period. Real 3x ETPs (WisdomTree) carry daily reset, volatility decay and product costs not reflected in these figures.
If the Nasdaq reverts to a historical 7–9% annual return after its recent strong run, blind 3x Buy & Hold becomes significantly more dangerous. This strategy aims to detect regime changes — however, versus 1x Buy & Hold it remains materially riskier and should only be used as a satellite position.
€100,000 → approx. €34,000
€75,000 → approx. €25,500
A drawdown of this magnitude is severe, even with full automation. If you cannot hold through this — emotionally and financially — the 3x version is not suitable for you.
0.2% / order → Optimistic test
0.3% / order → Realistic main test
0.5% / order → Hard stress test
Always plan for at least 0.3%. At 0.3%, the edge survives but shrinks meaningfully. Spread and execution quality are critical.
The 3x strategy result is a model-based interpretation of the NAS100 1h signal applied with leveraged exposure. It is not a full historical bar-by-bar simulation of the actual WisdomTree ETPs. The benchmarks (NAS100 1x and MSCI World 1x) are approximate unleveraged buy-and-hold figures for the same period. Real results can differ materially due to daily reset path dependency, volatility decay, spreads, swap costs, financing costs, tracking difference, taxes, and execution slippage.
Underlying 1x Signal Engine Selected 1x engine
0.3% Cost Stress Test Stress tested
Over this backtest period, the active 3x strategy (8.14x) significantly outperformed both the unleveraged NAS100 buy & hold (3.14x) and the MSCI World (2.91x). The strategy achieves this by actively switching between leveraged long and short exposure, rather than staying long through every drawdown.
The trade-off is a maximum drawdown of 66% — substantially higher than the ~38% for NAS100 and ~28% for MSCI World. This is an aggressive satellite allocation suited to experienced investors who understand leveraged ETP dynamics.
Not just a curve-fit — the final version was selected after rejecting weaker logic, stress-testing costs, and checking the economic reasoning behind each rule.
MA250
tested
entries
exit +30%
135 bars
stress test
comparison
tracking
The strategy is not a guaranteed trading system, but it passed a meaningful proof-of-concept process. The final version improved both return and drawdown versus the baseline, explicitly rejected weaker cash and delayed-short variants, and remained profitable under a 0.3% per-order cost stress test.
Because of the large 3x drawdown risk of approximately 66%, it should be treated as an aggressive satellite strategy — not as a full portfolio replacement. The 3x result is model-based and does not fully reflect the frictions of the actual WisdomTree ETPs.
This is an illustrative sizing example for a €1M portfolio, not a recommendation. 1x buy-and-hold remains the foundation. The 3x strategy is a high-risk satellite. Never allocate more than your personal risk tolerance allows — consult a professional.
LONG signal → WisdomTree NASDAQ 100 3x Daily Leveraged
SHORT signal → WisdomTree NASDAQ 100 3x Daily Short
Use limit orders only. Always check the spread before executing. Avoid illiquid off-hours. Ideally trade during US market hours with maximum liquidity.
- 01Use limit orders only — never market-buy against a wide spread.
- 02Check the spread manually before every trade. If unusually wide, skip the signal or wait.
- 03Only trade during liquid market hours — ideally during US session overlap.
- 04Always plan with at least 0.3% cost per order. 0.2% is optimistic. 0.5% is a stress test.
- 05Cap the 3x position at 7.5% of total portfolio. Never exceed €100k in the 3x variant.
- 06Size your position so you can comfortably hold through a 66% drawdown — both financially and psychologically.
Payments are processed securely by PayPal.