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China Railway Group Limited (601390) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China Railway Group Limited ¥17.96, price ¥4.33, upside +314.8%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? No
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Industrials · CN · ISIN CNE100000866

CR Thin data Sep 28, 2026

China Railway Group Limited

601390 · SHG

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value ¥17.96 · Strongly undervalued (+314.8%)

!Quality 36/100

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +2.3 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 1.9% net margin (TTM)

!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow

!3.9% dividend yield · Watch coverage

!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)

!Narrow moat 30/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on past: 17 out of 100

26 models, one by oneBear ¥12.16 to bull ¥23.35 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 36/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.17 – ¥9.06 · fair‑value band ¥12.16 – ¥23.35 · the ¥4.33 price screens below the ¥17.96 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

China Railway Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the construction and engineering contractor business in China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Engineering Construction; Design Consulting; Equipment Manufacturing; Specialty Real Estate; Asset Management; and Resource Utilization. It constructs railways, highways, bridges, tunnels, urban rail transits, stations and buildings, municipal facilities, and other projects; offers consulting and planning, feasibility study, survey and design, research and development, and construction supervision of railways, highways, and municipal facilities and others; and manufactures steel structure, switch, and other mechanical products, as well as shield machines and back-up equipment, electrified equipment, and railway construction machinery. The company also develops residential, commercial, tourism, and pension real estate, as well as urban complexes; engages in the operation, maintenance, management, and asset management of infrastructure investment projects; and operates mining and provides mineral products, including concentrates of copper, cobalt, molybdenum, lead, and zinc, as well as cathode copper and cobalt hydroxide. In addition, it is involved in financial trust and management; financial services; capital investment; commodity trade; software and information technology services; talent information network services; and franchise operation. The company was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Stock analysis

China Railway Group Limited (601390) currently trades at ¥4.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥17.96, implying the stock looks roughly 75.9% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥19.30 per share, and 16 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥4.33 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥7.29, and 0 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥12.16 (bear) to ¥23.35 (bull), the price of ¥4.33 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

China Railway Group Limited reported revenue of 1.1T CNY in FY2025 versus 1.1T CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.5%/yr. Reported net income was 22.9B CNY in FY2025, compounding −4.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 107B CNY (≈ $16.0B) · P/E ratio 5.6 · P/S ratio 0.12 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.7600 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 315%, 601390 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥12.16 Fair Value ¥17.96 Bull ¥23.35

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.4476 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

Residual Income ¥12.04 ¥12.57 ¥13.58 75

EPV ¥9.22 ¥11.88 ¥14.20 72

ROIC Compounder ¥9.22 ¥11.88 ¥14.20 71

All 16 models by family

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd ¥6.31 ¥21.96 ¥29.52 62

Lynch FV ¥5.10 ¥7.29 ¥9.48 58

PEG = 1.0 ¥5.10 ¥7.29 ¥9.48 55

EPV ¥9.22 ¥11.88 ¥14.20 72

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM ¥9.06 ¥18.83 ¥29.88 64

DDM Multi-Stage ¥9.06 ¥15.79 ¥19.77 64

Multiples

P/E Multiple ¥14.61 ¥19.47 ¥24.34 61

P/S Multiple ¥11.82 ¥15.76 ¥19.71 56

P/B Multiple ¥11.82 ¥15.76 ¥19.71 53

EV/EBIT ¥18.80 ¥27.30 ¥35.80 64

EV/EBITDA ¥20.69 ¥29.82 ¥38.95 65

EV/Revenue ¥11.51 ¥19.30 ¥27.10 51

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) ¥7.52 ¥10.07 ¥15.03 52

Economic Profit

Residual Income ¥12.04 ¥12.57 ¥13.58 75

ROIC Compounder ¥9.22 ¥11.88 ¥14.20 71

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E ¥12.57 ¥17.96 ¥23.35 66

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39

Profitability 22

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 31

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 20

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 20

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 56

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 87

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 26

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 8

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 80

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 24/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Revenue growth 1 year

−5.8%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−1.8%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+2.3%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.8% a year

Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+12.6%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

+1.9%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−2.0%

Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.0% vs 6.0%, slowing

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 5%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (14 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Very negative

Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.

China Railway Group Ltd's Dividend Analysis Yahoo Finance · Sep 23, 2026
American Vloggers Explore China's Infrastructure under China-U.S. Youth Exchange Yahoo Finance · Jul 11, 2024
Key clients desert PwC China as Big Four rivals circle Yahoo Finance · May 29, 2024
China’s State-Owned Firms, Long Market Laggards, Are Suddenly Stars Yahoo Finance · Apr 25, 2023

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 789 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside +200.0% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 4.3% · Below median

Return on assets 1.1% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 1.9% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 4.3% · Below median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −9.8% · Below median

Dividend yield (TTM) 3.9% · Top 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 1.13× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.6× · Cheapest 25%

P/B 0.29× · Cheapest 25%

P/S (TTM) 0.10× · Cheapest 25%

EV/EBITDA 4.8× · Cheapest 25%

PEG 1.48× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 25

FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 20

PAST (return on equity)17 · sector 28

HEALTH (low debt)44 · sector 94

DIVIDEND (yield)78 · sector 42

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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China Railway Group Limited · Fair Value
¥17.96 +76%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Railway Group Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601390

Frequently asked questions

Is China Railway Group Limited (601390) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥17.96 versus a price of ¥4.33, about +315% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 601390?

Our model-based fair value for China Railway Group Limited is ¥17.96 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥4.33.

What is the quality score of 601390?

China Railway Group Limited has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for China Railway Group Limited (601390)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥17.96 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥12.16, optimistic scenario ¥23.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the China Railway Group Limited stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at ¥17.96, about +315% upside versus a price of ¥4.33 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥12.16, optimistic scenario ¥23.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of China Railway Group Limited (601390)?

China Railway Group Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.1T CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).

Does China Railway Group Limited pay a dividend?

China Railway Group Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.88% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of China Railway Group Limited (601390)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Railway Group Limited it is ¥17.96 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of ¥4.33. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is China Railway Group Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 28, 2026, 601390 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥4.33, fair value ¥17.96, a gap of about +315% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of 601390?

No. The price is what the market pays today (¥4.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥17.96). For China Railway Group Limited the two are ¥13.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is China Railway Group Limited worth?

The market values China Railway Group Limited at about 107B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is ¥4.33; our models calculate a fair value of ¥17.96 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601390?

Our models span a range for China Railway Group Limited: cautious scenario ¥12.16, base ¥17.96, optimistic ¥23.35 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price ¥4.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of 601390?

China Railway Group Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.6 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥17.96 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 0.3, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 4.8.

What is the PEG ratio of 601390?

The PEG ratio of China Railway Group Limited is 1.48 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of China Railway Group Limited (601390)?

Balance-sheet figures for China Railway Group Limited (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 4.3%, debt of 1.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is 601390 from its 52-week high?

China Railway Group Limited trades at ¥4.33, about 31% below its 52-week high of ¥6.30 and 4% above the low of ¥4.17 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥17.96 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to China Railway Group Limited?

From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is China Railway Group Limited stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price ¥4.33, calculated fair value ¥17.96 (+315%), Quality Score 36/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of 601390 calculated?

We run China Railway Group Limited through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥17.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Railway Group Limited currently trades 76 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of China Railway Group Limited (601390)?

The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥4.33. Our model-based fair value is ¥17.96, about +315% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with China Railway Group Limited right now?

The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥12.16). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (¥12.16 to ¥23.35) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Where does the earnings growth of China Railway Group Limited (601390) come from?

Earnings per share at China Railway Group Limited grew +11.1 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.6 %, EBIT margin +4.6 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of China Railway Group Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of China Railway Group Limited (601390)?

The market capitalisation of China Railway Group Limited is 107B CNY (≈ $16.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of China Railway Group Limited (601390)?

The price-to-sales ratio of China Railway Group Limited is 0.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of China Railway Group Limited (601390)?

Earnings per share at China Railway Group Limited are ¥0.7600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of China Railway Group Limited (601390)?

The dividend yield of China Railway Group Limited is 3.9% (payout 22.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of China Railway Group Limited (601390)?

The net margin of China Railway Group Limited is 2.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of China Railway Group Limited (601390)?

The return on equity (ROE) of China Railway Group Limited is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of China Railway Group Limited (601390)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Railway Group Limited is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of China Railway Group Limited (601390)?

The operating margin of China Railway Group Limited is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at China Railway Group Limited (601390)?

Revenue at China Railway Group Limited is growing −9.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at China Railway Group Limited (601390)?

Earnings per share at China Railway Group Limited are growing −14.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does China Railway Group Limited (601390) generate?

The free cash flow of China Railway Group Limited is −31.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does China Railway Group Limited (601390) carry?

The net debt of China Railway Group Limited is 263B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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