Holike (603898) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Holike ¥1.74, price ¥11.86, upside -85.3%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.90 – ¥17.75 · fair‑value band ¥0.9700 – ¥3.18 · the ¥11.86 price screens above the ¥1.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Guangzhou Holike Creative Home Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, design, production, and sale of home customization solutions in China. It arranges wardrobes, cabinets, wooden doors, wall guards, and finished products. Guangzhou Holike Creative Home Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Holike (603898) currently trades at ¥11.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.74, 85.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥6.89 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥11.86 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at ¥0.8100, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥0.9700 (bear) to ¥3.18 (bull), the price of ¥11.86 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Holike reported revenue of 1.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound −16.2%/yr. Reported net income was 14.7M CNY in FY2025, compounding −31.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.7B CNY (≈ $551M) · P/S ratio 2.12 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.0300 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity −0.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9% · Operating margin −9.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 29% fair-value upside, at −85%, 603898 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.1300 to ¥6.89). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥0.9700Fair Value ¥1.74Bull ¥3.18
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.14/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.4% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−43.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−44.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−44.1% vs −23.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 3%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 304 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Holike Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603898
Frequently asked questions
Is Holike (603898) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.74 versus a price of ¥11.86, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603898?
Our model-based fair value for Holike is ¥1.74 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥11.86.
What is the quality score of 603898?
Holike has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Holike (603898)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.74 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.9700, optimistic scenario ¥3.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Holike stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.74, about −85% upside versus a price of ¥11.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.9700, optimistic scenario ¥3.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Holike (603898)?
Holike reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Holike pay a dividend?
Holike currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.36% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Holike (603898)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Holike it is ¥1.74 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥11.86. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Holike stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 603898 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥11.86, fair value ¥1.74, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603898?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥11.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.74). For Holike the two are ¥10.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Holike worth?
The market values Holike at about 3.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥11.86; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603898?
Our models span a range for Holike: cautious scenario ¥0.9700, base ¥1.74, optimistic ¥3.18 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥11.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Holike (603898)?
Balance-sheet figures for Holike (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −0.4%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603898 from its 52-week high?
Holike trades at ¥11.86, about 33% below its 52-week high of ¥17.75 and 23% above the low of ¥9.65 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Holike?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Midea Group, King Slide Works Co, Gree Electric Appliances, Inc, Haier Smart Home Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Holike stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥11.86, calculated fair value ¥1.74 (−85%), Quality Score 44/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603898 calculated?
We run Holike through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Holike itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Holike (603898)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥11.86. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.74, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Holike right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (¥0.9700 to ¥3.18). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Holike (603898) come from?
Earnings per share at Holike grew +3.1 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.6 %, EBIT margin −4.6 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Holike
How large is the market capitalisation of Holike (603898)?
The market capitalisation of Holike is 3.7B CNY (≈ $551M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Holike (603898)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Holike is 2.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Holike (603898)?
Earnings per share at Holike are ¥−0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Holike (603898)?
The dividend yield of Holike is 0.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Holike (603898)?
The net margin of Holike is 0.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Holike (603898)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Holike is −0.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Holike (603898)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Holike is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Holike (603898)?
The operating margin of Holike is −9.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Holike (603898)?
Revenue at Holike is growing −29.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Holike (603898)?
Earnings per share at Holike are growing −86.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Holike (603898) generate?
The free cash flow of Holike is −126M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Holike (603898) hold?
Holike holds more cash than debt, 455M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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