China Rare Earth Holdings (0769) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$2.0B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
A solid business, but screening 86% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1100). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2700 – HK$1.07 · fair‑value band HK$0.0900 – HK$0.1100 · the HK$0.7000 price screens above the HK$0.1000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China Rare Earth Holdings (0769) currently trades at HK$0.7000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1000, implying the stock looks roughly 85.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Rare Earth Holdings generated revenue of HK$757M at a net margin of -13.9%. Revenue grew 49.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$965M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0900 (bear case) to HK$0.1100 (bull case); at HK$0.7000, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -42% fair-value upside, at -86%, 0769 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$0.4600) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.1000). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Rare Earth Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in manufacturing and selling rare earth products and refractory products in the People's Republic of China, Japan, Europe, and internationally. The company provides fluorescent materials, polishing agents, and high temperature ceramics.
Full company description
China Rare Earth Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in manufacturing and selling rare earth products and refractory products in the People's Republic of China, Japan, Europe, and internationally. The company provides fluorescent materials, polishing agents, and high temperature ceramics. It also offers rare earth products for use in electronic devices, computers, electronic motors, LCDs, DVDs, magnetic materials, magnetic memory chips, fiber optics, superconductors, mobile phone batteries, precision optics, and energy-saving environmental protection products. In addition, the company provides refractory products products for use in heat-treatment facilities for the petrochemical, steel metallurgy, non-ferrous metallurgy, glass, construction material, chemical fertilizer, and ceramics industries. In addition, it engages in the trading of rare earth products. The company was formerly known as Yixing Xinwei Holdings Limited and changed its name to China Rare Earth Holdings Limited in May 2000. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Yixing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
China Rare Earth Holdings reported revenue of HK$757M in FY2024 versus HK$1.1B in FY2020, a compound −9.2%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$105M in FY2024.
0769 screens 86% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 478 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 745.46 MXN | -48% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$179.43 | A$81.76 | -54% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 222.38 MXN | 172.99 MXN | -22% |
| Vale S.A VALEN | 250.00 MXN | 139.41 MXN | -44% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥19.00 | ¥19.80 | +4% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥70.43 | ¥9.55 | -86% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹584.60 | ₹501.98 | -14% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥41.02 | ¥10.59 | -74% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 527.80 | kr 461.48 | -13% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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