Moelis & Company (MC) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $5.0B
Moelis & Company
MC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +3.2% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 84% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 79/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $28.40 – $76.45 · fair‑value band $8.03 – $13.38 · the $66.63 price screens above the $10.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Moelis & Company (MC) currently trades at $66.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.70, implying the stock looks roughly 83.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Moelis & Company generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of 14.5%. Revenue grew 4.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 41.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $241M. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $8.03 (bear case) to $13.38 (bull case); at $66.63, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -84%, MC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($92.12) versus Asset-Based ($5.12). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 78 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Moelis & Company operates as an investment banking advisory company in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Australia.
Full company description
Moelis & Company operates as an investment banking advisory company in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Australia. It offers advisory services in the areas of mergers and acquisitions, recapitalizations and restructurings, capital markets transactions, and other corporate finance matters, as well as strategic advisory, capital markets, capital structure advisory, and private capital advisory. The company serves public multinational corporations, middle market private companies, financial sponsors, entrepreneurs, governments, and sovereign wealth funds clients. Moelis & Company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Moelis & Company reported revenue of $1.5B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was $233M in FY2025, compounding −10.6%/yr from FY2021.
MC screens 84% overvalued. Compare with Huatai Securities Co →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Moelis & Company Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Higher Revenues
- Moelis & Co (MC) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and Surging Pipeline ...
- Moelis (MC) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates
- Moelis (NYSE:MC) Reports Upbeat Q2 CY2026
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 425 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huatai Securities Co HTSC | $0.2700 | $0.0400 | -85% |
| Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 | 38,750 KRW | 31,645 KRW | -18% |
| Meritz Financial Group 138040 | 117,000 KRW | 87,706 KRW | -25% |
| Korea Investment Holdings 071050 | 239,000 KRW | 318,825 KRW | +33% |
| NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 | 31,000 KRW | 37,133 KRW | +20% |
| Samsung Securities Co 016360 | 107,700 KRW | 126,487 KRW | +17% |
| Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited MOTILALOFS | ₹967.00 | ₹299.65 | -69% |
| Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 | 322,000 KRW | 358,091 KRW | +11% |
| SSI Securities Corporation SSI | 24,250 VND | 28,021 VND | +16% |
| Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA | 313.75 ARS | 120.22 ARS | -62% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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