Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Novo Nordisk A/S $59.76, price $38.71, upside +54.4%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $34.77 – $137.40 · fair‑value band $28.55 – $84.57 · the $38.71 price screens below the $59.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Novo Nordisk A/S, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and distribution of pharmaceutical products. It operates through two segments, Obesity and Diabetes Care, and Rare Disease. The Obesity and Diabetes care segment provides products for diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular, and other emerging therapy areas.
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Novo Nordisk A/S, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and distribution of pharmaceutical products. It operates through two segments, Obesity and Diabetes Care, and Rare Disease. The Obesity and Diabetes care segment provides products for diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular, and other emerging therapy areas. The Rare Disease segment offers products in the areas of rare blood disorders, rare endocrine disorders, and hormone replacement therapy. The company also provides NovoPen 6 and NovoPen Echo Plus, smart insulin pens; Dose Check, an insulin dose guidance application; growth hormone pens and injection needles; and Wegovy pill an oral glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist therapy for weight management. It operates in Europe, Canada, the United States, Japan, Korea, Oceania, Southeast Asia, Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. Novo Nordisk A/S was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Bagsvaerd, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) currently trades at $38.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $59.76, implying the stock looks roughly 35.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $65.05 per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the $38.71 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $20.58, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $28.55 (bear) to $84.57 (bull), the price of $38.71 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Novo Nordisk A/S reported revenue of 309B DKK in FY2025 versus 141B DKK in FY2021, a compound +21.7%/yr. Reported net income was 102B DKK in FY2025, compounding +21.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $191B · P/E ratio 10.1 · P/S ratio 3.36 · EPS (TTM) $4.26 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 33.1% · Return on equity 71.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 29.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at 54%, NVO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $28.55Fair Value $59.76Bull $84.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.1% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+24.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.20.7% vs 13.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.43% → 41%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in DKK, Denmark: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.2% a year for the price and −1.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 73 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Below median
Fair Value upside+61.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)71.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets19.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)37.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)61.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth24.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.61× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
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Is Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $59.76 versus a price of $38.71, about +54% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NVO?
Our model-based fair value for Novo Nordisk A/S is $59.76 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $38.71.
What is the quality score of NVO?
Novo Nordisk A/S has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $59.76 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.55, optimistic scenario $84.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Novo Nordisk A/S stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $59.76, about +54% upside versus a price of $38.71 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $28.55, optimistic scenario $84.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)?
Novo Nordisk A/S reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 328B DKK (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Novo Nordisk A/S pay a dividend?
Novo Nordisk A/S currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.17% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Novo Nordisk A/S would have to grow free cash flow by +18.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.5 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NVO use?
Our models discount Novo Nordisk A/S at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.35, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Novo Nordisk A/S that is +18.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Novo Nordisk A/S grew +19.5 % a year. The price currently implies +18.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Novo Nordisk A/S (+18.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.56 %: that much free cash flow Novo Nordisk A/S produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Novo Nordisk A/S it is $59.76 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $38.71. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Novo Nordisk A/S stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, NVO trades below its calculated fair value: price $38.71, fair value $59.76, a gap of about +54% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NVO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($38.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($59.76). For Novo Nordisk A/S the two are $21.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Novo Nordisk A/S worth?
The market values Novo Nordisk A/S at about $191B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $38.71; our models calculate a fair value of $59.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NVO?
Our models span a range for Novo Nordisk A/S: cautious scenario $28.55, base $59.76, optimistic $84.57 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $38.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NVO?
Novo Nordisk A/S trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.1 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $59.76 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.1, P/B 6.5, P/S 3.8, EV/EBITDA 7.8.
What is the PEG ratio of NVO?
The PEG ratio of Novo Nordisk A/S is 3.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Novo Nordisk A/S (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 71.4%, debt of 0.61 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NVO from its 52-week high?
Novo Nordisk A/S trades at $38.71, about 37% below its 52-week high of $61.72 and 11% above the low of $34.77 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $59.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Novo Nordisk A/S?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Eli Lilly and Company, Johnson & Johnson,, AbbVie Inc, Roche Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Novo Nordisk A/S stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $38.71, calculated fair value $59.76 (+54%), Quality Score 57/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NVO calculated?
We run Novo Nordisk A/S through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $59.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Novo Nordisk A/S currently trades 35 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was $38.71. Our model-based fair value is $59.76, about +54% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Novo Nordisk A/S right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($28.55 to $84.57). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) come from?
Earnings per share at Novo Nordisk A/S grew +14.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.5 %, EBIT margin +0.1 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Novo Nordisk A/S
How large is the market capitalisation of Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)?
The market capitalisation of Novo Nordisk A/S is $191B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Novo Nordisk A/S is 3.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)?
Earnings per share at Novo Nordisk A/S are $4.26 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)?
The dividend yield of Novo Nordisk A/S is 4.2% (payout 37.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)?
The net margin of Novo Nordisk A/S is 33.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Novo Nordisk A/S is 71.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Novo Nordisk A/S is 29.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)?
The operating margin of Novo Nordisk A/S is 61.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)?
Revenue at Novo Nordisk A/S is growing +24.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)?
Earnings per share at Novo Nordisk A/S are growing +67.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) carry?
The net debt of Novo Nordisk A/S is 104B DKK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026