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China Tianrui Group (1252) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$740M

CT China Tianrui Group 1252 · HK
PriceHK$0.2400
Fair ValueHK$0.3840
Upside+60.0%
Quality55/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 5.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (11/13)
Narrow moat 26/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.2856 – HK$0.4752 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.3637 to HK$0.3840 (+5.6%) since Aug 5, 2026.

A solid business, screening 60% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.2856). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$7.12 HK$0.0480 Fair Value HK$0.3840 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0480 – HK$7.12 · fair‑value band HK$0.2856 – HK$0.4752 · the HK$0.2400 price screens below the HK$0.3840 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

China Tianrui Group (1252) currently trades at HK$0.2400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3840, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, China Tianrui Group generated revenue of HK$6.5B at a net margin of 5.0%. Revenue grew 14.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.6%. Net debt stands at HK$11.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.2856 (bear case) to HK$0.4752 (bull case); at HK$0.2400, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -60% fair-value upside, at 60%, 1252 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$2.95 HK$3.84 HK$5.22 80
Residual Income HK$3.35 HK$3.09 HK$2.19 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.02 HK$2.86 HK$3.92 74
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$2.85 HK$3.78 HK$5.36 38
Owner Earnings HK$1.75 HK$2.36 HK$3.38 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$2.02 HK$2.78 HK$3.87 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.81 HK$4.15 HK$5.91 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$1.66 HK$2.16 HK$2.76 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$2.33 HK$2.89 HK$3.46 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.81 HK$3.66 HK$4.55 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$2.17 HK$2.54 HK$2.87 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.6200 HK$0.7500 HK$0.8500 54
EPV HK$0.6200 HK$0.7400 HK$0.8400 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.16 HK$1.54 HK$1.93 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.16 HK$1.54 HK$1.93 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.16 HK$1.54 HK$1.93 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.80 HK$2.48 HK$3.16 53
EV/EBITDA HK$3.29 HK$4.48 HK$5.66 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.52 HK$2.28 HK$3.04 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$2.55 HK$3.42 HK$5.10 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$2.95 HK$3.84 HK$5.22 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.02 HK$2.86 HK$3.92 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$3.35 HK$3.09 HK$2.19 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.6200 HK$0.7400 HK$0.8400 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.8200 HK$1.18 HK$1.53 68

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$3.42) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.7400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$6.5B
Revenue growth (YoY) +14.7%
Net margin 5.0%
Return on equity 1.6%
Free cash flow HK$1.2B FY2024
P/E ratio 1.8 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 8.6%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0200
EPS growth (YoY) +149%
Net debt HK$11.9B FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36

Profitability 16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 84
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 26
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 55
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 18
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Tianrui Group Cement Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and sale of cement, clinker, and limestone aggregates in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

China Tianrui Group Cement Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and sale of cement, clinker, and limestone aggregates in the People's Republic of China. It also offers sand and gravel aggregates; and concrete, packing bags, construction materials, cement packaging, and slag powder, as well as engages in the mining and the sale of limestone. It sells its products under the Tianrui brand. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Ruzhou, the People's Republic of China. China Tianrui Group Cement Company Limited is a subsidiary of Yu Kuo Company Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years

China Tianrui Group reported revenue of HK$6.1B in FY2024 versus HK$12.2B in FY2020, a compound −15.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$279M in FY2024, compounding −37.7%/yr from FY2020.

Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2024)
HK$6.1B
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−13.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−4.7%
Avg. growth/yr (15Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.9%
Revenue −15.8%/yr
FY20 HK$12.2B
FY21 HK$12.7B
FY22 HK$11.1B
FY23 HK$7.9B
FY24 HK$6.1B
Net income −37.7%/yr
FY20 HK$1.9B
FY21 HK$1.2B
FY22 HK$449M
FY23 −HK$634M
FY24 HK$279M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2013-2024) −5.2 % p.a.
Revenue per share −1.4 pp

of which total revenue +0.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.2 pp

EBIT margin −2.5 pp
Tax rate −1.7 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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China Tianrui Group · Fair Value
HK$0.3840 +60%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Tianrui Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1252

Peer Group

Building Materials · 259 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside +60% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Revenue growth 15% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.11× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 1.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.05× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.11× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 1.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 21
FUTURE 74 · sector 2
PAST 7 · sector 15
HEALTH 95 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 52

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Building Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
UltraTech Cement Limited ULTRACEMCO ₹11,891 ₹4,718 -60%
China Jushi Co 600176 ¥43.31 ¥13.22 -69%
Grasim Industries Limited GRASIM ₹3,308 ₹1,245 -62%
CEMEX, S.A. CEMEXCPO 21.71 MXN 12.27 MXN -43%
Anhui Conch Cement Company 600585 ¥17.49 ¥26.14 +49%
Ambuja Cements Limited AMBUJACEM ₹421.00 ₹216.73 -49%
Shree Cement Limited SHREECEM ₹25,570 ₹8,215 -68%
TCC Group 1101B 43.15 TWD 9.76 TWD -77%
Taiwan Glass Ind. Corp 1802 57.60 TWD 13.98 TWD -76%
J.K. Cement Limited JKCEMENT ₹5,349 ₹2,184 -59%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Tianrui Group (1252) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3840 versus a price of HK$0.2400, about +60% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1252?
Our model-based fair value for China Tianrui Group is HK$0.3840 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.2400.
What is the quality score of 1252?
China Tianrui Group has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Tianrui Group (1252)?
China Tianrui Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$6.5B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1252?
The net profit margin of China Tianrui Group is about 5.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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