Jiangsu Horizon Chain (2625) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$549M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price −12.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 67% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (32/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.98). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (16 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
16‑month range HK$2.00 – HK$8.05 · fair‑value band HK$2.98 – HK$3.85 · the HK$2.10 price screens below the HK$3.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Jiangsu Horizon Chain (2625) currently trades at HK$2.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.50, implying the stock looks roughly 67.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Jiangsu Horizon Chain generated revenue of HK$1.5B at a net margin of 2.4%. Revenue grew 11.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.0%. Net debt stands at HK$361M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$2.98 (bear case) to HK$3.85 (bull case); at HK$2.10, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 76% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 67%, 2625 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$4.89) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.7900). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 4
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Jiangsu Horizon Chain Supermarket Company Limited engages in the retail operation of supermarket and convenience stores under the Hongxinlong brand in the People's Republic of China.
Full company description
Jiangsu Horizon Chain Supermarket Company Limited engages in the retail operation of supermarket and convenience stores under the Hongxinlong brand in the People's Republic of China. The company sells grains and oil and food and other products; garment and wooden products; household and non-staple food products; and fashion and apparel, children's wear, cosmetics and personal care, jewelry, footwear, household appliances, consumer electronics, liquor, and miscellaneous products, as well as accessories. It is also involved in the operation of retail stores, shopping malls, and central kitchen; supply and sale of meals; and lease of shop floor area or shop premises, including restaurants, hotels and pharmacies, etc. Jiangsu Horizon Chain Supermarket Company Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Yangzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Jiangsu Horizon Chain reported revenue of HK$1.5B in FY2025 versus HK$1.4B in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$36.6M in FY2025, compounding +0.4%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Department Stores · 127 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Department Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falabella S.A FALABELLA | 6,380 CLP | 8,005 CLP | +25% |
| El Puerto de Liverpool, S.A. LIVEPOLC1 | 99.62 MXN | 220.59 MXN | +121% |
| 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings 5326 | 3.65 MYR | 1.59 MYR | -56% |
| Cencosud S.A CENCOSUD | 1,949 CLP | 2,425 CLP | +24% |
| Vishal Mega Mart Limited VMM | ₹107.00 | ₹30.46 | -72% |
| SHINSEGAE Inc 004170 | 399,000 KRW | 177,841 KRW | -55% |
| Organización Soriana, S. A. B. de C. V., SORIANAB | 30.04 MXN | 54.64 MXN | +82% |
| Lotte Shopping Co 023530 | 97,300 KRW | 76,636 KRW | -21% |
| La Comer, S.A. LACOMERUBC | 34.37 MXN | 44.99 MXN | +31% |
| Lojas Renner S.A LREN3 | R$11.74 | R$33.36 | +184% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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