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Sanxun Holdings Group Ltd (6611) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$31.1M

SH Sanxun Holdings Group Ltd 6611 · HK
PriceHK$0.0460
Fair ValueHK$0.0777
Upside+68.9%
Quality34/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -15.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (3/9)
Narrow moat 4/100
Evidence: Low Range HK$0.0777 – HK$0.2364 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 7 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Below-average quality, screening 69% undervalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (34/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.0777). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.0777 to HK$0.2364). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$5.13 HK$0.0460 Fair Value HK$0.0777 Jul 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0460 – HK$5.13 · fair‑value band HK$0.0777 – HK$0.2364 · the HK$0.0460 price screens below the HK$0.0777 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Sanxun Holdings Group Ltd (6611) currently trades at HK$0.0460, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0777, implying the stock looks roughly 68.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Sanxun Holdings Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$1.6B at a net margin of -15.1%. Revenue declined 53.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -14.4%. Net debt stands at HK$856M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0777 (bear case) to HK$0.2364 (bull case); at HK$0.0460, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at 69%, 6611 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.5200 HK$0.7100 HK$1.00 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.5700 HK$0.9600 HK$1.44 74
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.8400 HK$1.13 HK$1.68 50
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.5000 HK$0.7100 HK$1.03 38
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.5700 HK$0.9400 HK$1.48 39
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.5100 HK$0.7500 HK$1.01 36
Multiples
EV/Revenue HK$0.7100 HK$1.13 HK$1.55 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.8400 HK$1.13 HK$1.68 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.5200 HK$0.7100 HK$1.00 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.5700 HK$0.9600 HK$1.44 74

Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$1.13) versus Growth DCF (HK$0.7100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$1.6B
Revenue growth (YoY) -53.8%
Net margin -15.1%
Return on equity -14.4%
Free cash flow HK$73.0M FY2023
Operating margin -1.8%
More key figures
EPS growth (YoY) -32.4%
Net debt HK$856M FY2023

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 34/100

Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 3
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 3
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 21
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 90
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 80
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 78
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Sanxun Holdings Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development business in the People's Republic of China. The company develops and sells residential properties. It is also involved in trading business. Sanxun Holdings Group Limited was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Hefei, the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

Sanxun Holdings Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development business in the People's Republic of China. The company develops and sells residential properties. It is also involved in trading business. Sanxun Holdings Group Limited was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Hefei, the People's Republic of China. Sanxun Holdings Group Limited is a subsidiary of Q Kun Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2019 – FY2023 · reported fiscal years

Sanxun Holdings Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$2.6B in FY2023 versus HK$3.1B in FY2019, a compound −4.2%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$413M in FY2023.

Growth Quality 48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2023)
HK$2.6B
Latest YoY
−41.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−12.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+29.4%
Revenue −4.2%/yr
FY19 HK$3.1B
FY20 HK$3.9B
FY21 HK$5.6B
FY22 HK$4.5B
FY23 HK$2.6B
Net income
FY19 HK$442M
FY20 HK$367M
FY21 HK$259M
FY22 HK$109M
FY23 −HK$413M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sanxun Holdings Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6611

Peer Group

Real Estate - Development · 591 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +74% · Above median
Return on assets -1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -15% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -2% · Below median
Revenue growth -54% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.21× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/FCF 0.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 47
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 0 · sector 10
HEALTH 90 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 58

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DLF Limited DLF ₹661.75 ₹146.13 -78%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,209 ₹583.43 -52%
PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI 6,150 IDR 1,330 IDR -78%
PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT 1,080 IDR 1,674 IDR +55%
PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE 595.00 IDR 1,488 IDR +150%
PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL 73.00 IDR 84.16 IDR +15%
PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA 610.00 IDR 1,525 IDR +150%
Khang Dien House Trading and Investment Joint Stock Company KDH 18,150 VND 20,338 VND +12%
PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI 4,300 IDR 6,239 IDR +45%
PT Puradelta Lestari Tbk DMAS 147.00 IDR 164.33 IDR +12%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Sanxun Holdings Group Ltd (6611) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.0777 versus a price of HK$0.0460, about +69% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 6611?
Our model-based fair value for Sanxun Holdings Group Ltd is HK$0.0777 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.0460.
What is the quality score of 6611?
Sanxun Holdings Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Sanxun Holdings Group Ltd (6611)?
Sanxun Holdings Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.6B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 6611?
The net profit margin of Sanxun Holdings Group Ltd is about -15.1%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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