AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCP) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $6.5B
AGNC Investment Corp
AGNCP · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated today
Share price +1.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 35% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($28.43). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range ($28.43 to $54.48) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.79 – $25.33 · fair‑value band $28.43 – $54.48 · the $25.33 price screens below the $34.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCP) currently trades at $25.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.12, implying the stock looks roughly 34.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, AGNC Investment Corp generated revenue of $1.6B at a net margin of 91.7%. It earns a return on equity of 13.3%. Net debt stands at $100B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $28.43 (bear case) to $54.48 (bull case); at $25.33, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -1% fair-value upside, at 35%, AGNCP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($73.15) versus Asset-Based ($25.09). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AGNC Investment Corp. provides private capital to housing market in the United States. It invests in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the United States government-sponsored enterprise or by the United States government agency.
Full company description
AGNC Investment Corp. provides private capital to housing market in the United States. It invests in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the United States government-sponsored enterprise or by the United States government agency. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal or state corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was formerly known as American Capital Agency Corp. and changed its name to AGNC Investment Corp. in September 2016. AGNC Investment Corp. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AGNC Investment Corp reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $837M in FY2021, a compound +22.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.7B in FY2025, compounding +22.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −3.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −5.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch AGNCP: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- AGNC Investment (AGNC) Stock Could Be Undervalued After A 67% Three Year Run
- Is AGNC Investment (AGNC) A Bargain On Its Earnings Rebound And Dividend Appeal?
- AGNC Investment Corp's Dividend Analysis
- AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know
Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $23.11 | $22.84 | -1% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $16.46 | $14.79 | -10% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $10.23 | $20.75 | +103% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $14.28 | $14.71 | +3% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $12.97 | $7.67 | -41% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.64 | $20.04 | +20% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.62 | $13.45 | -1% |
| Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc ARI | $6.72 | $13.56 | +102% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.62 | $6.20 | -6% |
| Ladder Capital Corp LADR | $9.86 | $7.68 | -22% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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