Orpheus Uranium Limited (AGREF) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $28.2M
Orpheus Uranium Limited
AGREF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 29, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 12 days ago
Below-average quality, and screening another 26% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.0748). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0008 – $1.70 · fair‑value band $0.0544 – $0.0748 · the $0.0800 price screens above the $0.0595 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 29, 2026.
Analysis
Orpheus Uranium Limited (AGREF) currently trades at $0.0800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0595, implying the stock looks roughly 25.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $959K. It earns a return on equity of -27.7%. Fundamentals as of Jul 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.0544 (bear case) to $0.0748 (bull case); at $0.0800, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -26%, AGREF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($0.1100) versus Asset-Based ($0.0100). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Orpheus Uranium Limited, through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties. It explores for uranium, copper, gold, nickel, lithium, and zinc deposits. The company was formerly known as Argonaut Resources NL and changed its name to Orpheus Uranium Limited in February 2024.
Full company description
Orpheus Uranium Limited, through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties. It explores for uranium, copper, gold, nickel, lithium, and zinc deposits. The company was formerly known as Argonaut Resources NL and changed its name to Orpheus Uranium Limited in February 2024. Orpheus Uranium Limited was incorporated in 1985 and is based in Unley, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2016 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
Orpheus Uranium Limited reported revenue of $4.2K in FY2024 versus $0 in FY2016. Reported net income was −$2.2M in FY2024.
AGREF screens 26% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 475 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.19 | $9.14 | -36% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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