Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC (BGCG) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · GB · Market cap 166M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from £3.93 to £5.07 (+29.0%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +1.5% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 66% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (£3.81). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.65 – £4.61 · fair‑value band £3.81 – £6.34 · the £3.05 price screens below the £5.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC (BGCG) currently trades at £3.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £5.07, implying the stock looks roughly 66.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC generated revenue of £52.5M at a net margin of 96.3%. Revenue grew 0.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 28.8%. Net debt stands at £6.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £3.81 (bear case) to £6.34 (bull case); at £3.05, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at 66%, BGCG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Earnings-Based (£32.45) versus Growth DCF (£0.1800). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC is an open-end equity mutual fund launched by Witan Investment Services Limited. It is co-managed by Dalton Investments LLC;Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited;Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V.;Matthews International Capital Management, LLC. It invests in public equity markets of Asia / Pacific region.
Full company description
Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC is an open-end equity mutual fund launched by Witan Investment Services Limited. It is co-managed by Dalton Investments LLC;Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited;Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V.;Matthews International Capital Management, LLC. It invests in public equity markets of Asia / Pacific region. It invests in stocks of companies operating across diversified sectors. The fund invests in growth stocks of diversified market capitalizations companies. The fund invests in dividend paying stocks of companies. The fund employs fundamental analysis with bottom-up stock picking approach to create its portfolio. The fund seeks to benchmark the performance of its portfolio against the MSCI All Country Asia Pacific Free Index. Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC was formed in 1907 and is domiciled in United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC reported revenue of £52.5M in FY2026 versus −£1.9M in FY2022. Reported net income was £50.5M in FY2026.
of which total revenue +1.5 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch BGCG: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Asset Management · 971 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fondul Proprietatea SA FP | $0.0420 | $0.0800 | +90% |
| BlackRock, Inc BLK | $1,136 | $465.75 | -59% |
| Blackstone Inc BX | $124.56 | $16.35 | -87% |
| Investor AB INVEB | kr 423.70 | kr 847.40 | +100% |
| Brookfield Corporation BN | C$62.45 | C$10.12 | -84% |
| KKR & Co KKR | $100.94 | $44.88 | -56% |
| AB Industrivärden INDUA | kr 532.50 | kr 1,065 | +100% |
| Jio Financial Services Limited JIOFIN | ₹242.98 | ₹40.19 | -83% |
| Hedef Holding HEDEF | 267.25 TRY | 320.98 TRY | +20% |
| Bajaj Holdings BAJAJHLDNG | ₹10,398 | ₹9,202 | -12% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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