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Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC (BGCG) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · GB · Market cap 166M GBX

BG Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC BGCG · LSE
Price£3.05
Fair Value£5.07
Upside+66.2%
Quality72/100
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Weak Growth
Highly profitable · 96.3% net margin
generates free cash flow
0.81% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/13)
Wide moat 90/100
Evidence: High Range £3.81 – £6.34 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026

From 11 valuation models · updated 30 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from £3.93 to £5.07 (+29.0%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +1.5% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 66% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (£3.81). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

£4.61 £1.65 Fair Value £5.07 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £1.65 – £4.61 · fair‑value band £3.81 – £6.34 · the £3.05 price screens below the £5.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

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Analysis

Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC (BGCG) currently trades at £3.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £5.07, implying the stock looks roughly 66.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC generated revenue of £52.5M at a net margin of 96.3%. Revenue grew 0.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 28.8%. Net debt stands at £6.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £3.81 (bear case) to £6.34 (bull case); at £3.05, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at 66%, BGCG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income £5.03 £7.44 £43.88 76
Growth DCF £0.1200 £0.1800 £0.2700 72
Gordon GGM £0.1600 £0.2800 £0.3600 70
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
5Y P/E Exit £5.91 £15.06 £27.84 38
10Y P/E Exit £3.74 £10.83 £23.11 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd £6.30 £43.97 £61.70 54
Lynch FV £22.71 £32.45 £42.18 50
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM £0.1600 £0.2800 £0.3600 70
DDM Multi-Stage £0.1600 £0.2600 £0.3000 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple £9.04 £12.05 £15.07 63
P/B Multiple £3.81 £5.07 £6.34 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £1.81 £2.43 £3.62 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF £0.1200 £0.1800 £0.2700 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income £5.03 £7.44 £43.88 76

Widest divergence: Earnings-Based (£32.45) versus Growth DCF (£0.1800). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 52.5M GBX
Revenue growth (YoY) +0.8%
Net margin 96.3%
Return on equity 28.8%
Free cash flow 460K GBX FY2026
P/E ratio 3.5
More key figures
Operating margin 96.6%
EPS (TTM) £0.8700
Dividend yield 0.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +4.3%
Net debt 6.1M GBX FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 72/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 68
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 9
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 76
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 70
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC is an open-end equity mutual fund launched by Witan Investment Services Limited. It is co-managed by Dalton Investments LLC;Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited;Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V.;Matthews International Capital Management, LLC. It invests in public equity markets of Asia / Pacific region.

Full company description

Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC is an open-end equity mutual fund launched by Witan Investment Services Limited. It is co-managed by Dalton Investments LLC;Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited;Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V.;Matthews International Capital Management, LLC. It invests in public equity markets of Asia / Pacific region. It invests in stocks of companies operating across diversified sectors. The fund invests in growth stocks of diversified market capitalizations companies. The fund invests in dividend paying stocks of companies. The fund employs fundamental analysis with bottom-up stock picking approach to create its portfolio. The fund seeks to benchmark the performance of its portfolio against the MSCI All Country Asia Pacific Free Index. Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC was formed in 1907 and is domiciled in United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC reported revenue of £52.5M in FY2026 versus −£1.9M in FY2022. Reported net income was £50.5M in FY2026.

Growth Quality 34/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
£52.5M
Latest YoY
+27.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.2%
Avg. growth/yr (22Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.5%
Revenue
FY22 −£1.9M
FY23 −£14.6M
FY24 −£11.1M
FY25 £41.2M
FY26 £52.5M
Net income
FY22 −£83.6M
FY23 −£12.5M
FY24 −£83.2M
FY25 £40.4M
FY26 £50.5M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) +2.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +2.6 pp

of which total revenue +1.5 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.1 pp

EBIT margin +0.0 pp
Tax rate +0.0 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BGCG

Peer Group

Asset Management · 971 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +66% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 29% · Top 25%
Return on assets 17% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 96% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 97% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.8% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 3.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.14× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 4.28× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 487.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 4.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 37
FUTURE 4 · sector 6
PAST 100 · sector 26
HEALTH 0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 16 · sector 69

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC (BGCG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £5.07 versus a price of £3.05, about +66% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BGCG?
Our model-based fair value for Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC is £5.07 (as of Jul 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is £3.05.
What is the quality score of BGCG?
Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC (BGCG)?
Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £52.5M (latest available figure, as of Jul 11, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of BGCG?
The net profit margin of Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC is about 96.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 96.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC pay a dividend?
Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.79% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 11, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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