The Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC (BGFD) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · GB · Market cap 666M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from £16.10 to £16.58 (+3.0%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +7.4% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 65% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (71/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (£12.44). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £5.74 – £10.06 · fair‑value band £12.44 – £20.73 · the £10.04 price screens below the £16.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
The Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC (BGFD) currently trades at £10.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £16.58, implying the stock looks roughly 65.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at £151M. Revenue grew 272.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.6%. Net debt stands at £100M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £12.44 (bear case) to £20.73 (bull case); at £10.04, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at 65%, BGFD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Earnings-Based (£64.93) versus Growth DCF (£0.2100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC is a closed ended equity mutual fund launched and managed by Baillie Gifford & Co Ltd. It is co-managed by Baillie Gifford & Co. The fund invests in the public equity markets of Japan. It seeks to invest in stocks of companies operating across diversified sectors.
Full company description
The Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC is a closed ended equity mutual fund launched and managed by Baillie Gifford & Co Ltd. It is co-managed by Baillie Gifford & Co. The fund invests in the public equity markets of Japan. It seeks to invest in stocks of companies operating across diversified sectors. The fund primarily invests in growth stocks of small and mid cap companies. It employs fundamental analysis with a bottom-up stock picking approach to create its portfolio. The fund benchmarks the performance of its portfolio against the TOPIX Total Return Index. The Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC was formed in 1981 and is domiciled in the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC reported revenue of £74.4M in FY2025 versus £165M in FY2021, a compound −18.0%/yr. Reported net income was £123M in FY2025, compounding −6.4%/yr from FY2021.
Watch BGFD: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Asset Management · 973 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fondul Proprietatea SA FP | $0.0420 | $0.0800 | +90% |
| BlackRock, Inc BLK | $1,136 | $465.75 | -59% |
| Blackstone Inc BX | $124.56 | $16.35 | -87% |
| Investor AB INVEB | kr 423.70 | kr 847.40 | +100% |
| Brookfield Corporation BN | C$62.45 | C$10.12 | -84% |
| KKR & Co KKR | $100.94 | $44.88 | -56% |
| AB Industrivärden INDUA | kr 532.50 | kr 1,065 | +100% |
| Jio Financial Services Limited JIOFIN | ₹242.98 | ₹40.19 | -83% |
| Hedef Holding HEDEF | 267.25 TRY | 320.98 TRY | +20% |
| Bajaj Holdings BAJAJHLDNG | ₹10,398 | ₹9,202 | -12% |
Compare The Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Financial Services stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is The Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC (BGFD) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of BGFD?
What is the quality score of BGFD?
What is the revenue of The Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC (BGFD)?
What is the net profit margin of BGFD?
Does The Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track The Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.