bpost NV (BPOST) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · BE · Market cap €307M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from €1.27 to €2.22 (+74.8%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price −13.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 60% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (€1.20 to €3.62). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.35 – €8.65 · fair‑value band €1.20 – €3.62 · the €1.39 price screens below the €2.22 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
bpost NV (BPOST) currently trades at €1.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.22, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, bpost NV generated revenue of €4.4B at a net margin of -0.8%. Revenue declined 5.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -4.4%. Net debt stands at €1.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €1.20 (bear case) to €3.62 (bull case); at €1.39, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 21% fair-value upside, at 60%, BPOST screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€26.03) versus Growth DCF (€0.8600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
bpost NV/SA, together with its subsidiaries, provides parcel logistics solutions in Belgium, France, the Netherlands, the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates through three segments: BU Bpost, BU Paxon, and BU Landmark Global.
Full company description
bpost NV/SA, together with its subsidiaries, provides parcel logistics solutions in Belgium, France, the Netherlands, the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates through three segments: BU Bpost, BU Paxon, and BU Landmark Global. The company offers postal, parcel, and logistics services, including in-shop delivery, in-home installations, two-man handling, and return/repair/recycle services, as well as cross-border and transportation management services. It also provides e-commerce logistics; fulfillment services; back-office; and proximity and convenience services, as well as sells various banking and financial, postal, and retail products. In addition, the company engages in the distribution of magazines, comics, novels, and puzzle books; automation and the deployment of robots for webshops; customized last-mile and outsourced supply-chain solutions; and repair of smartphones, drones, and coffee machines, as well as delivering and installation of white goods, smart home devices, and furniture. Further, it is involved in express deliveries; freight breakdown, sorting and processing of freight, import and export customs activities, and freight forwarding; freight distribution management systems and warehousing; storage, logistics, and distribution of refrigerated and frozen products; and administrative and financial document services. The company was formerly known as De Post-La Poste and changed its name to bpost NV/SA in June 2010. bpost NV/SA was founded in 1830 and is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
bpost NV reported revenue of €4.5B in FY2025 versus €4.3B in FY2021, a compound +1.1%/yr. Reported net income was −€40.2M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 218 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $103.91 | $103.34 | -1% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $326.77 | $347.68 | +6% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €55.32 | €53.18 | -4% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,380 | kr 712.57 | -48% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $275.96 | $133.80 | -52% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥32.96 | ¥48.64 | +48% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$185.20 | HK$224.26 | +21% |
| Hyundai Glovis Co 086280 | 199,700 KRW | 468,982 KRW | +135% |
| YTO Express Group 600233 | ¥18.48 | ¥26.51 | +43% |
| JD Logistics, Inc 2618 | HK$14.17 | HK$21.45 | +51% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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