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bpost NV (BPOST) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · BE · Market cap €307M

BN bpost NV BPOST · BR
Price€1.39
Fair Value€2.22
Upside+60.0%
Quality46/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -0.8% net margin
High debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (4/13)
Narrow moat 23/100
Evidence: High Range €1.20 – €3.62 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 12 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from €1.27 to €2.22 (+74.8%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price −13.2% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 60% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (€1.20 to €3.62). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€8.65 €1.35 Fair Value €2.22 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €1.35 – €8.65 · fair‑value band €1.20 – €3.62 · the €1.39 price screens below the €2.22 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

bpost NV (BPOST) currently trades at €1.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.22, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, bpost NV generated revenue of €4.4B at a net margin of -0.8%. Revenue declined 5.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -4.4%. Net debt stands at €1.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €1.20 (bear case) to €3.62 (bull case); at €1.39, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 21% fair-value upside, at 60%, BPOST screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €4.65 €8.70 €13.45 80
Rev-Margin DCF €0.8600 €3.32 74
Gordon GGM €1.01 €1.50 €1.96 70
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €4.40 €8.82 €14.21 38
Owner Earnings €3.94 €8.20 €13.41 31
5Y Revenue Exit €0.5800 €2.79 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €9.94 €20.48 €32.17 41
10Y Revenue Exit €0.9100 €2.98 €5.26 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €7.43 €15.21 €24.65 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €1.01 €1.50 €1.96 70
DDM Multi-Stage €1.01 €1.39 €1.76 61
Multiples
EV/EBITDA €17.31 €26.03 €34.76 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €1.77 €2.38 €3.55 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €4.65 €8.70 €13.45 80
Rev-Margin DCF €0.8600 €3.32 74

Widest divergence: Multiples (€26.03) versus Growth DCF (€0.8600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €4.4B
Revenue growth (YoY) -5.1%
Net margin -0.8%
Return on equity -4.4%
Free cash flow €303M FY2025
Operating margin 2.3%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) €-0.1700
EPS growth (YoY) -96.8%
Net debt €1.8B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27

Profitability 17
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 18
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 10
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 77
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

bpost NV/SA, together with its subsidiaries, provides parcel logistics solutions in Belgium, France, the Netherlands, the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates through three segments: BU Bpost, BU Paxon, and BU Landmark Global.

Full company description

bpost NV/SA, together with its subsidiaries, provides parcel logistics solutions in Belgium, France, the Netherlands, the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates through three segments: BU Bpost, BU Paxon, and BU Landmark Global. The company offers postal, parcel, and logistics services, including in-shop delivery, in-home installations, two-man handling, and return/repair/recycle services, as well as cross-border and transportation management services. It also provides e-commerce logistics; fulfillment services; back-office; and proximity and convenience services, as well as sells various banking and financial, postal, and retail products. In addition, the company engages in the distribution of magazines, comics, novels, and puzzle books; automation and the deployment of robots for webshops; customized last-mile and outsourced supply-chain solutions; and repair of smartphones, drones, and coffee machines, as well as delivering and installation of white goods, smart home devices, and furniture. Further, it is involved in express deliveries; freight breakdown, sorting and processing of freight, import and export customs activities, and freight forwarding; freight distribution management systems and warehousing; storage, logistics, and distribution of refrigerated and frozen products; and administrative and financial document services. The company was formerly known as De Post-La Poste and changed its name to bpost NV/SA in June 2010. bpost NV/SA was founded in 1830 and is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

bpost NV reported revenue of €4.5B in FY2025 versus €4.3B in FY2021, a compound +1.1%/yr. Reported net income was −€40.2M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 33/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€4.5B
Latest YoY
+3.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.7%
Avg. growth/yr (24Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.8%
Revenue +1.1%/yr
FY21 €4.3B
FY22 €4.4B
FY23 €4.3B
FY24 €4.3B
FY25 €4.5B
Net income
FY21 €251M
FY22 €233M
FY23 €65.7M
FY24 −€205M
FY25 −€40.2M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "bpost NV Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BPOST

Peer Group

Integrated Freight & Logistics · 218 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside +60% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Revenue growth -5% · Below median
Debt / equity 4.27× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.50× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.08× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 7.7× · Pricier than median
PEG 5.69× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 45
FUTURE 0 · sector 8
PAST 0 · sector 27
HEALTH 0 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 55

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS $103.91 $103.34 -1%
FedEx Corporation FDX $326.77 $347.68 +6%
Deutsche Post AG DHL €55.32 €53.18 -4%
DSV A/S DSV kr 1,380 kr 712.57 -48%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT $275.96 $133.80 -52%
S.F. Holding 002352 ¥32.96 ¥48.64 +48%
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 HK$185.20 HK$224.26 +21%
Hyundai Glovis Co 086280 199,700 KRW 468,982 KRW +135%
YTO Express Group 600233 ¥18.48 ¥26.51 +43%
JD Logistics, Inc 2618 HK$14.17 HK$21.45 +51%

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Frequently asked questions

Is bpost NV (BPOST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €2.22 versus a price of €1.39, about +60% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BPOST?
Our model-based fair value for bpost NV is €2.22 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €1.39.
What is the quality score of BPOST?
bpost NV has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of bpost NV (BPOST)?
bpost NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €4.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of BPOST?
The net profit margin of bpost NV is about -0.8%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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