COAL Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · ID · Market cap 138B IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from 28.10 IDR to 40.00 IDR (+42.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +22.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 48% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (38/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (28.00 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range (28.00 IDR to 52.00 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
47‑month range 20.00 IDR – 560.00 IDR · fair‑value band 28.00 IDR – 52.00 IDR · the 27.00 IDR price screens below the 40.00 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
COAL (COAL) currently trades at 27.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 40.00 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 48.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, COAL generated revenue of 243B IDR at a net margin of 1.8%. It earns a return on equity of 1.2%. Net debt stands at 181B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 28.00 IDR (bear case) to 52.00 IDR (bull case); at 27.00 IDR, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at 48%, COAL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (38.91 IDR) versus Multiples (11.64 IDR). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Black Diamond Resources Tbk, through its subsidiary, PT Dayak Membangun Pratama, engages in coal mining activities in Indonesia. The company holds an interest in a mining site covering an area of 4,883 hectares located in Gunung Mas, Central Kalimantan. It also engages in mining support, mining and quarrying, and financial and investment activities.
Full company description
PT Black Diamond Resources Tbk, through its subsidiary, PT Dayak Membangun Pratama, engages in coal mining activities in Indonesia. The company holds an interest in a mining site covering an area of 4,883 hectares located in Gunung Mas, Central Kalimantan. It also engages in mining support, mining and quarrying, and financial and investment activities. PT Black Diamond Resources Tbk was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
COAL reported revenue of 243B IDR in FY2025 versus 172B IDR in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was 4.3B IDR in FY2025, compounding −36.3%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Thermal Coal · 101 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 | ¥42.65 | ¥34.97 | -18% |
| Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT | ₹3,157 | ₹901.17 | -71% |
| Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 | ¥24.30 | ¥23.90 | -2% |
| Yankuang Energy Group 600188 | ¥20.23 | ¥13.24 | -35% |
| Coal India Limited COALINDIA | ₹427.65 | ₹464.01 | +9% |
| China Coal Energy Company 601898 | ¥12.54 | ¥13.97 | +11% |
| Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 | ¥25.13 | ¥21.99 | -12% |
| Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 | ¥16.26 | ¥7.20 | -56% |
| PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk, ADRO | 2,490 IDR | 3,220 IDR | +29% |
| PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk, through its subsidiaries, CUAN | 630.00 IDR | 360.72 IDR | -43% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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