Estoril Sol, SGPS, S.A (ESON) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · PT · Market cap €40.3M
Fair value as of: Aug 15, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 15, 2026, revised from €2.39 to €10.14 (+323.5%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +5.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 200% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (€8.63). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.96 – €12.50 · fair‑value band €8.63 – €12.15 · the €3.38 price screens below the €10.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.
Analysis
Estoril Sol, SGPS, S.A (ESON) currently trades at €3.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €10.14, implying the stock looks roughly 200.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Estoril Sol, SGPS, S.A generated revenue of €225M at a net margin of -4.6%. Revenue grew 1.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €112M. Fundamentals as of Aug 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €8.63 (bear case) to €12.15 (bull case); at €3.38, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at 200%, ESON screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€19.03) versus Asset-Based (€4.91). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Estoril Sol, SGPS, S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the gaming activities and real estate businesses in Portugal and internationally. It owns gaming casinos, including casino do Estoril, Casino Lisboa, and Casino da Póvoa. The company also offers online casino games and online sports betting.
Full company description
Estoril Sol, SGPS, S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the gaming activities and real estate businesses in Portugal and internationally. It owns gaming casinos, including casino do Estoril, Casino Lisboa, and Casino da Póvoa. The company also offers online casino games and online sports betting. In addition, it owns a plot of land, and urban building for resale. The company was incorporated in 1958 and is headquartered in Estoril, Portugal. Estoril Sol, SGPS, S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Finansol - Sociedade de Controlo, SGPS, S.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Estoril Sol, SGPS, S.A reported revenue of €111M in FY2025 versus €80.7M in FY2021, a compound +8.4%/yr. Reported net income was −€25.3M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Resorts & Casinos · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS | $45.68 | $51.60 | +13% |
| Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 | HK$34.20 | HK$40.46 | +18% |
| Sands China Ltd 1928 | HK$14.34 | HK$2.05 | -86% |
| MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, MGM | $43.98 | $17.73 | -60% |
| Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN | $102.97 | $69.39 | -33% |
| Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR | $63.09 | $18.01 | -71% |
| Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD | $82.98 | $151.24 | +82% |
| Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR | $29.74 | $80.92 | +172% |
| Genting Singapore Limited G13 | 0.6400 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +8% |
| Vail Resorts, Inc MTN | $148.36 | $132.94 | -10% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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