PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, (FASW) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · ID · Market cap 17.6T IDR

Below-average quality, and screening another 81% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1,514 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• A fairly wide model range (757.16 IDR to 1,514 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 4,830 IDR – 8,533 IDR · fair‑value band 757.16 IDR – 1,514 IDR · the 5,312 IDR price screens above the 1,015 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

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Analysis

PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, (FASW) currently trades at 5,312 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,015 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 80.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, generated revenue of 8.0T IDR at a net margin of -10.6%. Revenue declined 2.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -19.4%. Net debt stands at 4.3T IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 757.16 IDR (bear case) to 1,514 IDR (bull case); at 5,312 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -4% fair-value upside, at -81%, FASW screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of packaging papers in Indonesia and other Asian countries. It offers coated duplex boards for use in light-weight packaging materials of pharmaceutical products, shoes, household goods, processed foods, and consumer electronics.

Full company description

PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of packaging papers in Indonesia and other Asian countries. It offers coated duplex boards for use in light-weight packaging materials of pharmaceutical products, shoes, household goods, processed foods, and consumer electronics. The company also provides container board products, such as brown packaging paper that is used for the outer layers of corrugated sheets; fluting paper for the construction of carton boxes; and white liner board for industrial packaging and box making. It sells its products directly to industrial and consumer goods manufacturing companies. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia. PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk operates as a subsidiary of Scgp Solutions (Singapore) Pte Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, reported revenue of 8.1T IDR in FY2025 versus 11.9T IDR in FY2021, a compound −9.2%/yr. Reported net income was −1.1T IDR in FY2025.

FASW screens 81% overvalued. Compare with Stora Enso Oyj →

Peer Group

Packaging & Containers · 273 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.