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Hidili Industry International Development Limited (HIIDQ) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · US · Market cap $316M

HI Hidili Industry International Development Limited logo Hidili Industry International Development Limited HIIDQ · US
Price$0.9000
Fair Value$0.1530
Upside-83.0%
Quality22/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -56.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (4/12)
Narrow moat 10/100
Evidence: Medium Range $0.1190 – $0.2040 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 12 valuation models · updated 25 days ago

Below-average quality, and screening another 83% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.2040). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (22/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$6.86 $0.9000 Fair Value $0.1530 Apr 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.9000 – $6.86 · fair‑value band $0.1190 – $0.2040 · the $0.9000 price screens above the $0.1530 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Hidili Industry International Development Limited (HIIDQ) currently trades at $0.9000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1530, implying the stock looks roughly 83.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 22/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Hidili Industry International Development Limited generated revenue of $1.9B at a net margin of -56.0%. Revenue declined 35.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -41.6%. Net debt stands at $6.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.1190 (bear case) to $0.2040 (bull case); at $0.9000, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -83%, HIIDQ screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $0.7900 $1.03 $1.32 80
Rev-Margin DCF $0.7600 $1.09 $1.47 74
Gordon GGM $3.15 $5.68 $7.82 70
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $0.7800 $1.05 $1.40 38
5Y Revenue Exit $0.7600 $1.09 $1.50 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $0.8200 $1.22 $1.66 41
10Y Revenue Exit $0.7400 $1.03 $1.40 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $0.8000 $1.11 $1.50 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $3.15 $5.68 $7.82 70
DDM Multi-Stage $3.15 $4.72 $6.07 61
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $0.9500 $1.23 $1.51 54
EV/Revenue $0.7700 $1.05 $1.33 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.6700 $0.8900 $1.33 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $0.7900 $1.03 $1.32 80
Rev-Margin DCF $0.7600 $1.09 $1.47 74

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($4.72) versus Asset-Based ($0.8900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $1.9B
Revenue growth (YoY) -35.2%
Net margin -56.0%
Return on equity -41.6%
Free cash flow $25.2M FY2025
P/E ratio 1.2
More key figures
Operating margin -24.7%
EPS (TTM) $5.54
EPS growth (YoY) -76.3%
Net debt $6.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 22/100

Of which business quality 22 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22

Profitability 1
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 23
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 0
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Hidili Industry International Development Limited, an investment holding company engages in the mining, manufacturing, and sale of raw and clean coal in the People's Republic of China. It also mines for coking coal; and provides clean coal washing services.

Full company description

Hidili Industry International Development Limited, an investment holding company engages in the mining, manufacturing, and sale of raw and clean coal in the People's Republic of China. It also mines for coking coal; and provides clean coal washing services. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Panzhihua, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hidili Industry International Development Limited reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound −9.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$623M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 41/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$1.9B
Latest YoY
−10.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−23.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.5%
Avg. growth/yr (19Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.7%
Revenue −9.1%/yr
FY21 $2.8B
FY22 $4.3B
FY23 $2.4B
FY24 $2.2B
FY25 $1.9B
Net income
FY21 $645M
FY22 $537M
FY23 −$746M
FY24 −$634M
FY25 −$623M

HIIDQ screens 83% overvalued. Compare with China Shenhua Energy Company →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hidili Industry International Development Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HIIDQ

Peer Group

Thermal Coal · 101 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 22 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −83% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets -2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -56% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -25% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -35% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 1.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.68× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.16× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 12.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 22
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 0 · sector 21
HEALTH 100 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 31

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Coal Oil & gas

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

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Frequently asked questions

Is Hidili Industry International Development Limited (HIIDQ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.1530 versus a price of $0.9000, about −83% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HIIDQ?
Our model-based fair value for Hidili Industry International Development Limited is $0.1530 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $0.9000.
What is the quality score of HIIDQ?
Hidili Industry International Development Limited has a Quality Score of 22/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Hidili Industry International Development Limited (HIIDQ)?
Hidili Industry International Development Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.9B (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HIIDQ?
The net profit margin of Hidili Industry International Development Limited is about -56.0%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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