AB Inter RAO Lietuva, (IRL) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · PL · Market cap 196M PLN
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from 12.91 PLN to 2.98 PLN (−76.9%) since Jun 24, 2026.
A solid business, but screening 70% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (4.53 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range (2.24 PLN to 4.53 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 9.51 PLN – 17.96 PLN · fair‑value band 2.24 PLN – 4.53 PLN · the 9.80 PLN price screens above the 2.98 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
AB Inter RAO Lietuva, (IRL) currently trades at 9.80 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.98 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 69.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, AB Inter RAO Lietuva, generated revenue of 313M PLN at a net margin of 4.6%. Revenue declined 17.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 40.4%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 3.0. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 2.24 PLN (bear case) to 4.53 PLN (bull case); at 9.80 PLN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -70%, IRL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (17.88 PLN) versus Asset-Based (0.9400 PLN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AB Inter RAO Lietuva, together with its subsidiaries, supplies electricity in Lithuania, Latvia, Ruusia, and Estonia. The company engages in various forms of electricity trading, purchasing and selling electricity under bilateral contracts with other electricity suppliers, as well as on power exchange services.
Full company description
AB Inter RAO Lietuva, together with its subsidiaries, supplies electricity in Lithuania, Latvia, Ruusia, and Estonia. The company engages in various forms of electricity trading, purchasing and selling electricity under bilateral contracts with other electricity suppliers, as well as on power exchange services. It is also involved in the provision of balancing services for end-users and other wholesalers of electricity; the sale and purchase of regulating and balancing electricity for the transmission system operators; and cross-border electricity trading. In addition, the company generates and supplies wind energy through a wind farm in Western Lithuania; and supplies electricity to end users. It also engages in exporting activities. AB Inter RAO Lietuva was incorporated in 2002 and is based in Vilnius, Lithuania. AB Inter RAO Lietuva is a subsidiary of RAO Nordic Oy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2017 – FY2021 · reported fiscal years
AB Inter RAO Lietuva, reported revenue of 334M PLN in FY2021 versus 179M PLN in FY2017, a compound +16.8%/yr. Reported net income was 14.3M PLN in FY2021, compounding +12.4%/yr from FY2017.
IRL screens 70% overvalued. Compare with Constellation Energy Corporation →
Peer Group
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constellation Energy Corporation CEG | $257.57 | $89.08 | -65% |
| Vistra Corp VST | $158.86 | $47.59 | -70% |
| Adani Power Limited ADANIPOWER | ₹218.45 | ₹75.57 | -65% |
| CGN Power Co 003816 | ¥3.88 | ¥3.13 | -19% |
| NRG Energy, Inc NRG | $137.90 | $56.02 | -59% |
| Gulf Development Public Company GULF | 67.50 THB | 40.44 THB | -40% |
| Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL | ₹1,730 | ₹342.02 | -80% |
| Talen Energy Corporation TLN | $372.37 | $44.67 | -88% |
| Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 | ¥5.80 | ¥4.95 | -15% |
| Power Assets Holdings 0006 | HK$58.45 | HK$31.90 | -45% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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