MCS Services Ltd (MSG) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · AU · Market cap A$594K
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from A$0.0030 to A$0.0039 (+31.0%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +33.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- The models converge in a tight band (A$0.0039 to A$0.0040), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0010 – A$0.0740 · fair‑value band A$0.0039 – A$0.0040 · the A$0.0040 price screens above the A$0.0039 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
MCS Services Ltd (MSG) currently trades at A$0.0040, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0039, implying the stock looks roughly 2.5% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$38.7M. Revenue declined 3.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -48.3%. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0039 (bear case) to A$0.0040 (bull case); at A$0.0040, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 71% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at -3%, MSG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$0.0300) versus DCF Models (A$0.0300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
MCS Services Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides traffic management services in Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Red Gum Resources Limited. MCS Services Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Joondalup, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MCS Services Ltd reported revenue of A$0 in FY2025 versus A$38.1M in FY2021. Reported net income was −A$396K in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Security & Protection Services · 112 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSA ABLOY AB ASSAB | kr 360.50 | kr 269.97 | -25% |
| Verisure plc VSURE | €9.33 | €12.40 | +33% |
| Allegion plc ALLE | $166.11 | $127.80 | -23% |
| Securitas AB SECUB | kr 147.90 | kr 186.34 | +26% |
| Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 | ¥16.46 | ¥31.47 | +91% |
| MSA Safety Incorporated MSA | $192.04 | $116.42 | -39% |
| ADT Inc ADT | $7.31 | $16.68 | +128% |
| The Brink's Company BCO | $113.96 | $121.18 | +6% |
| Brady Corporation BRC | $95.12 | $72.32 | -24% |
| The GEO Group GEO | $31.45 | $25.50 | -19% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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