PT Metro Realty Tbk (MTSM) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · ID · Market cap 116B IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from 99.18 IDR to 142.53 IDR (+43.7%) since Jun 26, 2026.
A solid business, but screening 71% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (174.48 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 61.00 IDR – 915.00 IDR · fair‑value band 110.57 IDR – 174.48 IDR · the 500.00 IDR price screens above the 142.53 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
PT Metro Realty Tbk (MTSM) currently trades at 500.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 142.53 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 71.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Metro Realty Tbk generated revenue of 32.8B IDR at a net margin of -0.2%. Revenue grew 89.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -0.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 3.4B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 110.57 IDR (bear case) to 174.48 IDR (bull case); at 500.00 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -13% fair-value upside, at -71%, MTSM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (153.80 IDR) versus Asset-Based (81.09 IDR). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Metro Realty Tbk engages in the property lease and management, property investment, and real estate development businesses in Indonesia.
Full company description
PT Metro Realty Tbk engages in the property lease and management, property investment, and real estate development businesses in Indonesia. The company engages in the buying, selling, rental, and operation of self-owned and leased real estate comprising apartment buildings; residential buildings; and non-living quarters, such as exhibition venues, private storage facilities, malls, shopping centers, and others, as well as provides houses and flats or apartments with or without furniture. The company was formerly known as PT Metro Supermarket Realty Tbk and changed its name to PT Metro Realty Tbk in July 2009. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Metro Realty Tbk reported revenue of 32.8B IDR in FY2025 versus 27.0B IDR in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was −59.2M IDR in FY2025.
MTSM screens 71% overvalued. Compare with Vingroup Joint Stock Company →
Peer Group
Real Estate Services · 520 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vingroup Joint Stock Company VIC | 223,000 VND | 25,731 VND | -88% |
| KE Holdings 2423 | HK$44.76 | HK$18.03 | -60% |
| Swire Properties Limited 1972 | HK$23.90 | HK$18.75 | -22% |
| China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited 1209 | HK$39.92 | HK$34.92 | -13% |
| Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA | 3,725 CLP | 5,571 CLP | +50% |
| SAGAA SAGAA | kr 170.00 | kr 75.55 | -56% |
| Cencosud Shopping S.A CENCOMALLS | 2,324 CLP | 2,976 CLP | +28% |
| WHA Corporation WHAR | 5.45 THB | 4.14 THB | -24% |
| PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk. owns and TOWR | 372.00 IDR | 1,208 IDR | +225% |
| PT Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk MKPI | 20,975 IDR | 19,160 IDR | -9% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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