Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp (NCDL) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $604M

A solid business, screening 76% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($16.94). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (3 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

30‑month range $11.86 – $15.11 · fair‑value band $16.94 – $28.23 · the $12.82 price screens below the $22.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp (NCDL) currently trades at $12.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.59, implying the stock looks roughly 76.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Net debt stands at $1.1B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 10.3. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $16.94 (bear case) to $28.23 (bull case); at $12.82, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at 76%, NCDL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($86.82) versus Asset-Based ($11.87). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (the "Company") is business development company and was formed on March 13, 2018, as a limited liability company under the laws of the State of Delaware and was converted into a Maryland corporation on June 18, 2019 prior to the commencement of operations.

Full company description

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (the "Company") is business development company and was formed on March 13, 2018, as a limited liability company under the laws of the State of Delaware and was converted into a Maryland corporation on June 18, 2019 prior to the commencement of operations. The Company is a closed-end, externally managed, non-diversified management investment company that has elected to be regulated as a business development company ("BDC") under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the "1940 Act"). The Company's investment objective is to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns primarily through current income by investing primarily in senior secured loans to private equity-owned U.S. middle market companies, which the Company defines as companies with approximately $10.0 million to $100.0 million of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization ("EBITDA"). The Company will focus on privately originated debt to performing U.S. middle market companies, with a portfolio expected to comprise primarily of first-lien senior secured debt and unitranche loans (other than last-out positions in unitranche loans) (collectively "Senior Loans"). The Company will also opportunistically invest in junior capital opportunities (second-lien loans, subordinated debt, last-out positions in unitranche loans and equity-related securities) (collectively "Junior Capital Investments").

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp reported revenue of $202M in FY2025 versus $39.3M in FY2021, a compound +50.6%/yr. Reported net income was $65.6M in FY2025, compounding +24.6%/yr from FY2021.

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Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending prices $100M notes offering Seeking Alpha · Jul 8, 2026
• Wells Fargo Cuts Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) Rating, Sees Pressure on Dividend Coverage Yahoo Finance · Jun 29, 2026
• NCDL Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Nasdaq · Jun 1, 2026

Peer Group

Asset Management · 973 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 94/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.