Noumi Limited (NOU) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · AU · Market cap A$29.1M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from A$0.1079 to A$0.1081 (+0.2%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price +20.0% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.0611 to A$0.1367) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0640 – A$0.5200 · fair‑value band A$0.0611 – A$0.1367 · the A$0.1200 price screens above the A$0.1081 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Noumi Limited (NOU) currently trades at A$0.1200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1081, implying the stock looks roughly 9.9% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Noumi Limited generated revenue of A$629M at a net margin of -14.6%. Revenue grew 11.2% year over year. Net debt stands at A$599M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0611 (bear case) to A$0.1367 (bull case); at A$0.1200, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -10%, NOU screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$2.53) versus Dividend Discount (A$0.0100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Noumi Limited develops, sources, manufactures, markets, sells, and distributes plant-based and dairy beverages and dairy and nutritional products in Australia, New Zealand, China, Southeast Asia, South Africa, and the Middle East. It operates through Dairy & Nutritionals and Plant-based Milks segments.
Full company description
Noumi Limited develops, sources, manufactures, markets, sells, and distributes plant-based and dairy beverages and dairy and nutritional products in Australia, New Zealand, China, Southeast Asia, South Africa, and the Middle East. It operates through Dairy & Nutritionals and Plant-based Milks segments. The company offers full cream, skim, low fat, lactose-free, flavoured, and fortified/specialty milk; cream; protein drinks; dietary enhancements; and nutritional powders. It also provides long-life plant-based milk products, such as soy, almond, rice, macadamia, coconut, cashew, and others; liquid cooking stocks and meal bases; and on-the-go beverages, which include breakfast drinks, meal replacements, smoothies, and juices. The company sells its products under the Milklab, Australia's Own, Vital Strength, PUREnFERRIN, Crankt, Uprotein, So Natural, Vitalife, PUREnWPC, PUREnMCC, and Noumi Nutritionals brands. It exports its products. Noumi Limited was formerly known as Freedom Foods Group Limited and changed its name to Noumi Limited in November 2021. The company was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Ingleburn, Australia. Noumi Limited is a subsidiary of Arrovest Pty Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Noumi Limited reported revenue of A$596M in FY2025 versus A$547M in FY2021, a compound +2.1%/yr. Reported net income was −A$150M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 652 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,507 | ₹362.37 | -76% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,646 | ₹1,870 | -67% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,062 | ₹327.27 | -69% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 7,550 IDR | 12,864 IDR | +70% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,219,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -17% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹352.60 | ₹144.77 | -59% |
| Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM | 61,600 VND | 52,858 VND | -14% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,665 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +62% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,630 IDR | 4,350 IDR | -6% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 389,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +36% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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