Packaging Corporation (P1KG34) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · BR · Market cap R$102B
Fair value as of: Jun 24, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +4.3% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range R$514.07 – R$620.20 · fair‑value band R$32.07 – R$102.34 · the R$578.09 price screens above the R$63.17 fair value. As of Jun 24, 2026.
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Packaging Corporation (P1KG34) currently trades at R$578.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$63.17 — implying the stock looks roughly 89.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Packaging Corporation generated revenue of R$9.2B at a net margin of 8.0%. Revenue grew 10.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.3%. Net debt stands at R$3.4B. Fundamentals as of Jun 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$32.07 (bear case) to R$102.34 (bull case); at R$578.09, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -37% fair-value upside — at -89%, P1KG34 screens richer than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jun 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
Packaging Corporation of America manufactures and sells containerboard and uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper products in North America. The company operates through Packaging and Paper segments. The Packaging segment offers various linerboard and corrugated packaging products, such as conventional shipping containers used to protect and transport manufactured goods; multi-color boxes and displays that help to merchandise the packaged product in retail locations; and honeycomb protective packaging products, as well as packaging for meat, fresh fruit and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products. This segment sells its corrugated products through a direct sales and marketing organization. The Paper segment manufactures and sells commodity and specialty papers, as well as communication papers, including cut-size office papers, and printing and converting papers; and white papers. This segment sells papers through its sales and marketing …
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Packaging Corporation reported revenue of R$9.0B in FY2025 versus R$8.5B in FY2022, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was R$774M in FY2025, compounding −9.1%/yr from FY2022.
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Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jun 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smurfit Kappa Group SMFTF | $44.20 | $27.40 | -38% |
| Smurfit Westrock Plc, SW | $41.28 | $40.96 | -1% |
| International Paper Company IP | $36.89 | $84.00 | +128% |
| Amcor plc AMCR | $38.17 | $17.00 | -55% |
| Ball Corporation BALL | $58.20 | $36.70 | -37% |
| Avery Dennison Corporation A1VY34 | R$405.00 | R$217.71 | -46% |
| CCL Industries Inc CCLB | C$83.16 | C$75.22 | -10% |
| Stora Enso Oyj STER | kr 106.40 | kr 10.71 | -90% |
| ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 | ¥33.57 | ¥23.95 | -29% |
| SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP | 27.00 THB | 16.12 THB | -40% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.
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Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.