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PT Antam (Persero) Tbk (PAEKY) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $4.5B

PA PT Antam (Persero) Tbk logo PT Antam (Persero) Tbk PAEKY · US
Price$17.00
Fair Value$15.42
Upside-9.3%
Quality71/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 9.7% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
5.77% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/14)
Moderate moat 59/100
Evidence: High Range $11.10 – $31.98 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 17 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 24, 2026, revised from $44.07 to $15.42 (−65.0%) since Jun 25, 2026.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide ($11.10 to $31.98). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$20.75 $6.91 Fair Value $15.42 Apr 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.91 – $20.75 · fair‑value band $11.10 – $31.98 · the $17.00 price screens above the $15.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

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Analysis

PT Antam (Persero) Tbk (PAEKY) currently trades at $17.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.42, implying the stock looks roughly 9.3% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, PT Antam (Persero) Tbk generated revenue of $35.3T at a net margin of 9.7%. Revenue grew 12.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 24.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $3.9T. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $11.10 (bear case) to $31.98 (bull case); at $17.00, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -9%, PAEKY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $28.12 $51.44 $89.03 80
Rev-Margin DCF $34.02 $60.89 $116.99 74
ROIC Compounder $27.97 $40.20 $48.76 72
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $29.79 $44.63 $90.89 38
Owner Earnings $42.52 $91.44 $190.37 31
5Y Revenue Exit $30.93 $53.55 $101.04 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $26.14 $43.86 $78.59 41
5Y P/E Exit $38.40 $85.59 $150.34 38
10Y Revenue Exit $29.88 $66.50 $90.96 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $27.60 $56.42 $105.96 37
10Y P/E Exit $36.34 $82.21 $158.59 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $20.40 $142.27 $199.66 54
Lynch FV $73.50 $105.00 $136.50 50
PEG = 1.0 $73.50 $105.00 $136.50 46
EPV $21.62 $24.67 $27.31 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple $38.25 $51.00 $63.75 63
P/S Multiple $38.25 $51.00 $63.75 58
P/B Multiple $33.05 $44.07 $55.09 55
EV/EBIT $32.60 $42.70 $52.81 53
EV/EBITDA $23.94 $31.16 $38.37 54
EV/Revenue $28.56 $39.82 $51.07 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $7.35 $9.84 $14.69 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $28.12 $51.44 $89.03 80
Rev-Margin DCF $34.02 $60.89 $116.99 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $19.23 $25.64 $107.54 61
ROIC Compounder $27.97 $40.20 $48.76 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $90.43 $129.18 $167.94 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($129.18) versus Asset-Based ($9.84). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $35.3T
Revenue growth (YoY) +12.1%
Net margin 9.7%
Return on equity 24.7%
Free cash flow $4.2T FY2025
P/E ratio 8.8
More key figures
EPS (TTM) $1.84
Dividend yield 5.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +59.9%
Net cash $3.9T FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 71/100

Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 69
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 93
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 40
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 88
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 50
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 83
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 24
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

PT Antam (Persero) Tbk operates as a diversified metals and mining company in Indonesia. The company operates through three segments: Nickel, Precious Metals and Refinery, and Bauxite and Alumina. The company is involved in the exploration, excavation, processing, and marketing of alumina, nickel ore, ferronickel, gold, silver, bauxite, and coal.

Full company description

PT Antam (Persero) Tbk operates as a diversified metals and mining company in Indonesia. The company operates through three segments: Nickel, Precious Metals and Refinery, and Bauxite and Alumina. The company is involved in the exploration, excavation, processing, and marketing of alumina, nickel ore, ferronickel, gold, silver, bauxite, and coal. It also engages in construction, trading, industry, mining, agriculture, printing, and ground transportation businesses; and provision of industrial area management services. In addition, the company exports its products. The company was formerly known as PT Aneka Tambang Tbk and changed its name to PT Antam (Persero) Tbk in February 2026. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Antam (Persero) Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Mineral Industri Indonesia (Persero).

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PT Antam (Persero) Tbk reported revenue of 84.6T IDR in FY2025 versus 38.4T IDR in FY2021, a compound +21.8%/yr. Reported net income was 7.2T IDR in FY2025, compounding +40.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$84.6T
Latest YoY
+22.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+22.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+25.3%
Avg. growth/yr (26Y)
+22.7%
Revenue +21.8%/yr
FY21 38.4T IDR
FY22 45.9T IDR
FY23 41.0T IDR
FY24 69.2T IDR
FY25 84.6T IDR
Net income +40.3%/yr
FY21 1.9T IDR
FY22 3.8T IDR
FY23 3.1T IDR
FY24 3.6T IDR
FY25 7.2T IDR

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Antam (Persero) Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PAEKY

Peer Group

Gold · 259 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −9% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 25% · Top 25%
Return on assets 11% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Revenue growth 12% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.8% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.08× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.28× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.28× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 3.7× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 21 · sector 0
FUTURE 61 · sector 100
PAST 99 · sector 0
HEALTH 96 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 24

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Newmont Corporation NEMCL $112.00 $132.73 +19%
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥28.36 ¥30.58 +8%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM C$191.93 C$154.33 -20%
Barrick Mining Corporation B $34.93 $50.66 +45%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM C$152.57 C$52.47 -66%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV C$284.75 C$97.76 -66%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $76.35 $88.63 +16%
Gold Fields Limited GFI $33.33 $59.06 +77%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $22.57 $34.62 +53%
Northern Star Resources Limited NST A$20.48 A$15.98 -22%

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Frequently asked questions

Is PT Antam (Persero) Tbk (PAEKY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.42 versus a price of $17.00, about −9% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of PAEKY?
Our model-based fair value for PT Antam (Persero) Tbk is $15.42 (as of Jul 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $17.00.
What is the quality score of PAEKY?
PT Antam (Persero) Tbk has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of PT Antam (Persero) Tbk (PAEKY)?
PT Antam (Persero) Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $35.3T (latest available figure, as of Jul 24, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of PAEKY?
The net profit margin of PT Antam (Persero) Tbk is about 9.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does PT Antam (Persero) Tbk pay a dividend?
PT Antam (Persero) Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.77% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 24, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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