Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $15.2B
Sprott Physical Gold Trust
PHYS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 11 days ago
Share price +3.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 24% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.52 – $40.93 · fair‑value band $29.91 – $49.85 · the $32.20 price screens below the $39.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) currently trades at $32.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $39.88, implying the stock looks roughly 23.9% undervalued today. We read business quality at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $26.9M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 2.7. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $29.91 (bear case) to $49.85 (bull case); at $32.20, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -51% fair-value upside, at 24%, PHYS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($162.72) versus Asset-Based ($6.49). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Sprott Physical Gold Trust is an exchange traded commodity launched and managed by Sprott Asset Management LP. The fund invests in the commodity markets. It primarily invests in physical gold bullion in London Good Delivery bar form. Sprott Physical Gold Trust was formed on August 28, 2009 and is domiciled in Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Sprott Physical Gold Trust reported revenue of $147M in FY2025 versus −$195M in FY2021. Reported net income was $5.9B in FY2025.
Watch PHYS: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Asset Management · 963 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fondul Proprietatea SA FP | $0.0420 | $0.0800 | +90% |
| BlackRock, Inc BLK | $1,036 | $504.81 | -51% |
| Blackstone Inc BX | $124.56 | $16.35 | -87% |
| Investor AB INVEB | kr 394.40 | kr 788.80 | +100% |
| Brookfield Corporation BN | C$62.45 | C$10.12 | -84% |
| KKR & Co KKR | $100.94 | $44.88 | -56% |
| AB Industrivärden INDUA | kr 532.50 | kr 1,065 | +100% |
| Jio Financial Services Limited JIOFIN | ₹242.98 | ₹40.19 | -83% |
| Bajaj Holdings BAJAJHLDNG | ₹10,398 | ₹9,202 | -12% |
| HDFC Asset Management Company HDFCAMC | ₹2,729 | ₹301.41 | -89% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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