Saba Energy Ltd (SABA) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CA · Market cap C$5.6M
Fair value as of: Jul 31, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 10 days ago
Share price −25.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 42% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (29/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$0.0663). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
34‑month range C$0.0200 – C$0.5900 · fair‑value band C$0.0663 – C$0.1071 · the C$0.0600 price screens below the C$0.0850 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.
Analysis
Saba Energy Ltd (SABA) currently trades at C$0.0600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.0850, implying the stock looks roughly 41.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Saba Energy Ltd generated revenue of C$6.4M at a net margin of -65.9%. Revenue declined 22.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -28.6%. Fundamentals as of Jul 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$0.0663 (bear case) to C$0.1071 (bull case); at C$0.0600, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at 42%, SABA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Saba Energy Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and gas exploration company in Canada, Indonesia, and Belize. The company holds interest in the Belize Property located in Belize.
Full company description
Saba Energy Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and gas exploration company in Canada, Indonesia, and Belize. The company holds interest in the Belize Property located in Belize. It also has an option to acquire a 100% interest in the Indonesia Property located in Indonesia; and 50% interest in the Cache Cold Lake Property located in Alberta, Canada. The company was formerly known as Blue Sky Global Energy Corp. and changed its name to Saba Energy Ltd. in September 2025. Saba Energy Ltd. is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
Saba Energy Ltd reported revenue of C$4.8M in FY2024 versus C$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −C$2.1M in FY2024.
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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