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YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, (YPFD) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · AR · Market cap 30.1T ARS

YS YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, YPFD · BA
Price76,675 ARS
Fair Value87,025 ARS
Upside+13.5%
Quality44/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -1.8% net margin
Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (5/10)
Narrow moat 31/100
Evidence: Low Range 39,078 ARS – 134,941 ARS Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026

From 6 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from 72,994 ARS to 87,025 ARS (+19.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +8.9% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 14% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (39,078 ARS to 134,941 ARS). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

83,850 ARS 571.70 ARS Fair Value 87,025 ARS Feb 2021 Jun 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 571.70 ARS – 83,850 ARS · fair‑value band 39,078 ARS – 134,941 ARS · the 76,675 ARS price screens below the 87,025 ARS fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, (YPFD) currently trades at 76,675 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 87,025 ARS, implying the stock looks roughly 13.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, generated revenue of 25.3T ARS at a net margin of -1.8%. Revenue grew 42.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.9%. Net debt stands at 9.6B ARS. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 39,078 ARS (bear case) to 134,941 ARS (bull case); at 76,675 ARS, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 116% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at 14%, YPFD screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
ROIC Compounder 23,107 ARS 31,210 ARS 46,091 ARS 72
EPV 23,107 ARS 31,210 ARS 38,417 ARS 59
EV/EBITDA 45,280 ARS 67,982 ARS 90,696 ARS 54
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV 23,107 ARS 31,210 ARS 38,417 ARS 59
Multiples
EV/EBIT 15,445 ARS 28,202 ARS 40,971 ARS 53
EV/EBITDA 45,280 ARS 67,982 ARS 90,696 ARS 54
EV/Revenue 23,610 ARS 43,512 ARS 63,427 ARS 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 16,931 ARS 22,689 ARS 33,862 ARS 50
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 23,107 ARS 31,210 ARS 46,091 ARS 72

Widest divergence: Multiples (43,512 ARS) versus Asset-Based (22,689 ARS). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 25.3T ARS
Revenue growth (YoY) +42.8%
Net margin -1.8%
Return on equity -2.9%
Free cash flow −118M ARS FY2025
Operating margin 19.0%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) -1,493 ARS
EPS growth (YoY) -86.0%
Net debt 9.6B ARS FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 86

Profitability 16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 35
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 42
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 69
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 96
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 90
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America and Argentina. The company operates through the Upstream, Midstream and Downstream, LNG and Integrated Gas, and New Energies segments.

Full company description

YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America and Argentina. The company operates through the Upstream, Midstream and Downstream, LNG and Integrated Gas, and New Energies segments. It is involved in the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbon fields and production of crude oil and natural gas; the refining, transportation and commercialization of refined products; the production, transportation, and commercialization of petrochemical products; the transportation and commercialization of crude oil; and the commercialization of specialties for the agribusiness industry, and of grains and their by-products. The company also offers fertilizers and crop protection products; flours, oils, and grains; asphalts; naphtha; and petroleum coke. In addition, it engages in the natural gas transportation and commercialization to third parties and to the Midstream and Downstream segments; the separation of natural gas liquids and their fractionation, and storage and transportation to produce ethane, propane, butane, and gasoline, as well as its commercialization; the development of liquefied natural gas liquefaction capacity; and power generation activities. The company was incorporated in 1977 and is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, reported revenue of 18.3B ARS in FY2025 versus 1.2T ARS in FY2021, a compound −65.2%/yr. Reported net income was −826M ARS in FY2025.

Growth Quality 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
18.3B ARS
Latest YoY
−99.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−80.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
−51.2%
Avg. growth/yr (27Y)
+4.5%
Revenue −65.2%/yr
FY21 1.2T ARS
FY22 2.5T ARS
FY23 5.4T ARS
FY24 19.7T ARS
FY25 18.3B ARS
Net income
FY21 257M ARS
FY22 289B ARS
FY23 −1.6T ARS
FY24 2.4T ARS
FY25 −826M ARS

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/YPFD

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Integrated · 54 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +14% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) -2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 19% · Above median
Revenue growth 43% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.76× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.95× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.13× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 51 · sector 16
FUTURE 100 · sector 7
PAST 0 · sector 45
HEALTH 62 · sector 87
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 79

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 26.72 SAR 20.14 SAR -25%
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM $144.51 $90.37 -37%
Chevron Corporation CHEV C$22.88 C$7.97 -65%
PetroChina Company 601857 ¥10.29 ¥16.51 +60%
Shell plc SHELL €38.04 €46.09 +21%
TotalEnergies SE TTE C$13.80 C$7.92 -43%
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PETR3 12,540 ARS 30,914 ARS +147%
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, BP $40.83 $12.71 -69%
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 ¥5.03 ¥4.46 -11%
Equinor ASA EQNR $36.19 $34.53 -5%

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Frequently asked questions

Is YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, (YPFD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 87,025 ARS versus a price of 76,675 ARS, about +14% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of YPFD?
Our model-based fair value for YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, is 87,025 ARS (as of Jul 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 76,675 ARS.
What is the quality score of YPFD?
YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, (YPFD)?
YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 25.3T ARS (latest available figure, as of Jul 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of YPFD?
The net profit margin of YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, is about -1.8%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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