Global Equity Fair Value Report July 2026
Dr. Peter Klein · Fair Value Calculator Research · As of: 2026-07-16 · Methodology version: mcw_v1+displayfv
Abstract.
Across 27,537 covered stocks, the global equity market trades +33.7 % above its aggregate fair value on a capitalisation-weighted basis. The valuation premium concentrates in large caps and the technology sector, while several regions and sectors trade near or below fair value. All tables are available as CSV, free to use with attribution.
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1. Data & methodology
- Universe: 35,000+ valued stocks; this analysis includes 27,537 names (publicly visible, minimum data quality and model coverage, one listing per company).
- Per-stock fair value: an evidence-weighted blend of 21 valuation models plus 25 quality factors; display-corrected values (outlier guards).
- Aggregation: capitalisation-weighted (Σ market cap vs Σ market cap × FV/price), FV/price ratios winsorised to [0.25, 4.0]; cross-listings deduplicated.
- Concentration: the 50 largest names account for 30% of aggregate market value (top 100: 37.3%).
2. Result: overall market
The market trades +33.7 % versus aggregate fair value on a capitalisation-weighted basis (from the price perspective this equals an average gap of -25.2 % to fair value).
3. Sectors
| Sector | vs fair value | n |
|---|
| Information Technology | +110.5 % | 3,477 |
| Industrials | +43.6 % | 5,036 |
| Health Care | +33.3 % | 2,020 |
| Consumer Staples | +32.8 % | 1,581 |
| Utilities | +31.0 % | 620 |
| Real Estate | +28.9 % | 1,741 |
| Materials | +28.3 % | 3,383 |
| Communication Services | +22.5 % | 1,079 |
| Energy | +20.0 % | 1,085 |
| Consumer Discretionary | +19.2 % | 3,537 |
| Financials | -3.0 % | 3,298 |
4. Regions
| Region | vs fair value | n |
|---|
| Oceania | +53.9 % | 1,061 |
| North America | +48.4 % | 6,730 |
| Asia | +14.7 % | 15,406 |
| Europe | +10.0 % | 3,980 |
| South America | -10.8 % | 338 |
5. Countries (top 20 by deviation)
| Country | vs fair value | n |
|---|
| Taiwan | +63.8 % | 1,847 |
| Australia | +53.9 % | 1,061 |
| India | +51.4 % | 3,271 |
| USA | +48.9 % | 6,034 |
| Korea | +46.2 % | 1,474 |
| Norway | +44.3 % | 175 |
| Canada | +37.8 % | 599 |
| Switzerland | +27.5 % | 179 |
| Finland | +25.7 % | 156 |
| UK | +24.4 % | 851 |
| Italy | +18.1 % | 279 |
| Thailand | +18.0 % | 718 |
| Malaysia | +8.7 % | 871 |
| China | +8.6 % | 4,060 |
| Sweden | +7.8 % | 462 |
| France | +6.9 % | 471 |
| Singapore | +2.6 % | 415 |
| Germany | -0.4 % | 357 |
| Poland | -6.4 % | 314 |
| Vietnam | -11.5 % | 171 |
6. Size classes
| Class | vs fair value | n |
|---|
| Large & mega caps (≥ $10B) | +38.4 % | 2,191 |
| Mid caps ($2–10B) | +14.5 % | 3,937 |
| Small caps (< $2B) | +10.7 % | 21,409 |
7. Limitations
- Model-based estimates: fair values are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.
- Capitalisation weighting: large companies dominate the aggregates; equal-weighted views would look milder.
- Winsorisation dampens single-name extremes and can slightly bias tail groups.
- Point-in-time: all figures refer to the stated as-of date.
8. How to cite
Klein, P. (2026). Global Equity Fair Value Report, July 2026. Fair Value Calculator Research.
https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/research/2026-07-global-equity-fair-value-report/
Data and charts are free to use with attribution ("Source: fairvalue-calculator.com") under CC BY 4.0.
Not financial advice and no buy or sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.
