Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.83 – ¥49.26 · fair‑value band ¥1.88 – ¥14.62 · the ¥12.52 price screens above the ¥6.51 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Hynar Water Group Co., Ltd. provides industrial wastewater treatment and water supply services in China. The company offers investment, design, construction, and operation services for sewage treatment plants and their supporting pipelines in industrial parks, as well as drinking water supply facilities.
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Hynar Water Group Co., Ltd. provides industrial wastewater treatment and water supply services in China. The company offers investment, design, construction, and operation services for sewage treatment plants and their supporting pipelines in industrial parks, as well as drinking water supply facilities. It also provides sludge treatment and disposal system solutions; and smart water services. Hynar Water Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 2001 and is based in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961) currently trades at ¥12.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.51, implying the stock looks roughly 92.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥2.19 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the ¥12.52 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at ¥0.8600, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥1.88 (bear) to ¥14.62 (bull), the price of ¥12.52 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 374M CNY in FY2025 versus 549M CNY in FY2021, a compound −9.2%/yr. Reported net income was −178M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.2B CNY (≈ $331M) · P/S ratio 5.54 · EPS (TTM) ¥−1.21 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin −47.6% · Return on equity −31.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5% · Operating margin −3.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −48%, 300961 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥1.88Fair Value ¥6.51Bull ¥14.62
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.29/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.0%
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.6%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
25.2% (2020) → 1.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+38.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 63 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−59% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.67× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.52× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.83× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF8.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA11.4× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)67· sector 63
DIVIDEND (yield)21· sector 46
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300961
Frequently asked questions
Is Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥6.51 versus a price of ¥12.52, about −48% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300961?
Our model-based fair value for Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. is ¥6.51 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥12.52.
What is the quality score of 300961?
Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥6.51 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.88, optimistic scenario ¥14.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥6.51, about −48% upside versus a price of ¥12.52 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.88, optimistic scenario ¥14.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961)?
Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 365M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +38.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -8.0 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 300961 use?
Our models discount Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.52, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. that is +38.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. grew -8.0 % a year. The price currently implies +38.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (+38.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.59 %: that much free cash flow Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. it is ¥6.51 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of ¥12.52. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 300961 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥12.52, fair value ¥6.51, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300961?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥12.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥6.51). For Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. the two are ¥6.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. at about 2.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is ¥12.52; our models calculate a fair value of ¥6.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300961?
Our models span a range for Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario ¥1.88, base ¥6.51, optimistic ¥14.62 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price ¥12.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −31.6%, debt of 0.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300961 from its 52-week high?
Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. trades at ¥12.52, about 47% below its 52-week high of ¥23.56 and 15% above the low of ¥10.89 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥6.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, SBS, Essential Utilities, Inc, Guangdong Investment Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price ¥12.52, calculated fair value ¥6.51 (−48%), Quality Score 46/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300961 calculated?
We run Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥6.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. right now?
The model range is unusually wide (¥1.88 to ¥14.62). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961)?
The market capitalisation of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. is 2.2B CNY (≈ $331M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. is 5.54 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961)?
Earnings per share at Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. are ¥−1.21. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961)?
The dividend yield of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. is 1.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961)?
The net margin of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. is −47.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. is −31.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961)?
The operating margin of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. is −3.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961)?
Revenue at Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. is growing −10.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961)?
Earnings per share at Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. are growing +12.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. (300961) carry?
The net debt of Hynar Water Group Co. Ltd. is 578M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 16.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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