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Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Curaleaf Holdings $8.96, price $9.95, upside -10.0%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Curaleaf Holdings
CURLF · USWeak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.
!Fair value $8.96 · Overvalued (−10.0%)
!Quality 38/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +15.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -7.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 20/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $5.20 to $16.64
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.21 – $43.77 · fair‑value band $5.20 – $16.64 · the $9.95 price screens above the $8.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Curaleaf Holdings, Inc. engages in the retail and wholesale of cannabis products in the United States and internationally. The company operates licensed cultivation; and pharma-grade cannabis processing and manufacturing facilities.
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Curaleaf Holdings, Inc. engages in the retail and wholesale of cannabis products in the United States and internationally. The company operates licensed cultivation; and pharma-grade cannabis processing and manufacturing facilities. It also supplies cannabis on a wholesale basis to Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and various European countries, including Germany, Italy, Poland, the Czech Republic, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway. In addition, the company operates a medical cannabis clinic and holds a pharmacy license. It serves the medical and adult-use cannabis markets through retail and wholesale channels. The company is based in Stamford, Connecticut.
Stock analysis
Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF) currently trades at $9.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.96, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 11.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $11.16 per share, and 5 of the 10 models we run sit above the $9.95 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.42, and 5 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.20 (bear) to $16.64 (bull), the price of $9.95 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Curaleaf Holdings reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$273M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.8B · P/S ratio 2.14 · EPS (TTM) $−0.4200 · Net margin −21.6% · Return on equity −8.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1% · Operating margin 0.2% · Revenue (TTM) $1.3B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −10%, CURLF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.20
Fair Value $8.96
Bull $16.64
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$6.61
$11.16
$25.35
74
Growth DCF
$6.10
$12.42
$24.78
73
5Y EBITDA Exit
$8.63
$17.27
$34.23
70
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$6.61
$11.16
$25.35
74
5Y Revenue Exit
$1.38
$2.61
$5.09
68
5Y EBITDA Exit
$8.63
$17.27
$34.23
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$2.96
$6.12
$7.34
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
$8.18
$21.38
$44.69
63
Multiples
EV/EBIT
n/a
$0.0400
>$0.1600
61
EV/EBITDA
$9.07
$12.70
$16.33
67
EV/Revenue
n/a
n/a
$0.0300
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.80
$2.42
$3.61
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$6.10
$12.42
$24.78
73
Rev-Margin DCF
$1.43
$3.26
$6.74
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
38/100
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Profitability
13
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
37
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
6
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
72
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
63
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
54
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
47/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+68.7%
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
10.2% (2020) → 2.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+48.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +45.3% a year for the price and +4.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+5.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+8.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+7.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+6.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.8%
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Compare Curaleaf Holdings with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 569 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Health Care sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merck KGaA MRK | €134.45 | €108.94 | −19% |
| Takeda Pharmaceutical Company TAK | $18.90 | $11.45 | −39% |
| Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited TEVA | $39.31 | $20.88 | −47% |
| Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA | ₹1,852 | ₹1,979 | +7% |
| Galderma Group GALD | CHF 163.00 | CHF 110.32 | −32% |
| Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 | ¥44.86 | ¥49.35 | +10% |
| Haleon plc HLN | $9.26 | $8.49 | −8% |
| Sandoz Group SDZ | CHF 71.16 | CHF 40.32 | −43% |
| Zoetis Inc ZTS | $70.30 | $110.50 | +57% |
| Divi's Laboratories Limited DIVISLAB | ₹9,620 | ₹1,871 | −81% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.96 versus a price of $9.95, about −10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CURLF?
Our model-based fair value for Curaleaf Holdings is $8.96 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.95.
What is the quality score of CURLF?
Curaleaf Holdings has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.96 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.20, optimistic scenario $16.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Curaleaf Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.96, about −10% upside versus a price of $9.95 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $5.20, optimistic scenario $16.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF)?
Curaleaf Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Curaleaf Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +48.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CURLF use?
Our models discount Curaleaf Holdings at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.64, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Curaleaf Holdings that is +48.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Curaleaf Holdings grew +15.1 % a year. The price currently implies +48.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Curaleaf Holdings (+48.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.95 %: that much free cash flow Curaleaf Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Curaleaf Holdings it is $8.96 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $9.95. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Curaleaf Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CURLF trades above its calculated fair value: price $9.95, fair value $8.96, a gap of about −10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CURLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.96). For Curaleaf Holdings the two are $0.9900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Curaleaf Holdings worth?
The market values Curaleaf Holdings at about $2.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $9.95; our models calculate a fair value of $8.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CURLF?
Our models span a range for Curaleaf Holdings: cautious scenario $5.20, base $8.96, optimistic $16.64 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $9.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Curaleaf Holdings (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −8.7%, debt of 0.61 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CURLF from its 52-week high?
Curaleaf Holdings trades at $9.95, about 29% below its 52-week high of $14.10 and 75% above the low of $5.67 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Curaleaf Holdings?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Curaleaf Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $9.95, calculated fair value $8.96 (−10%), Quality Score 38/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CURLF calculated?
We run Curaleaf Holdings through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Curaleaf Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $9.95. Our model-based fair value is $8.96, about −10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Curaleaf Holdings right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($5.20 to $16.64). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Curaleaf Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF)?
The market capitalisation of Curaleaf Holdings is $2.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Curaleaf Holdings is 2.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF)?
Earnings per share at Curaleaf Holdings are $−0.4200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF)?
The net margin of Curaleaf Holdings is −21.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Curaleaf Holdings is −8.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Curaleaf Holdings is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF)?
The operating margin of Curaleaf Holdings is 0.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF)?
Revenue at Curaleaf Holdings is growing +5.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF) carry?
The net debt of Curaleaf Holdings is $459M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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