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Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Naturgy Energy Group $44.23, price $33.53, upside +31.9%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Naturgy Energy Group
GASNF · USUndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value $44.23 · Undervalued (+31.9%)
!Quality 55/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +0.9 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 61/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.25 – $33.90 · fair‑value band $27.51 – $55.29 · the $33.53 price screens below the $44.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Naturgy Energy Group, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the supply, liquefaction, regasification, transport, storage, distribution, and sale of gas. It operates through Distribution Networks and Energy Markets segments.
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Naturgy Energy Group, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the supply, liquefaction, regasification, transport, storage, distribution, and sale of gas. It operates through Distribution Networks and Energy Markets segments. The company is involved in the regulated gas and electricity distribution; management of transport infrastructure; trade and shipping of liquefied natural gas; supply, procurement, and management of other gas infrastructure; and management of gas pipeline. It also manages conventional thermal generation facilities; facilities and generation projects using wind energy, mini hydro, solar and cogeneration, as well as hydroelectric power; photovoltaic generation projects; and renewable electricity generation projects. In addition, the company is involved in renewable gas projects, such as biomethane and green hydrogen; supply of gas, electricity and services to end customers. It operates in Spain, Australia, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Panama, the rest of Latin America, and the rest of Europe. The company was formerly known as Gas Natural SDG, S.A. and changed its name to Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. in June 2018. Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. was incorporated in 1843 and is based in Madrid, Spain.
Stock analysis
Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF) currently trades at $33.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $44.23, implying the stock looks roughly 24.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $44.23 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the $33.53 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.60, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $27.51 (bear) to $55.29 (bull), the price of $33.53 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Naturgy Energy Group reported revenue of €19.4B in FY2025 versus €22.1B in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was €2.0B in FY2025, compounding +13.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $32.5B · P/E ratio 11.4 · P/S ratio 1.19 · EPS (TTM) $2.57 · Net margin 10.4% · Return on equity 22.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1% · Operating margin 17.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 32%, GASNF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $27.51
Fair Value $44.23
Bull $55.29
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.94 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$25.91
$39.24
$63.01
79
Growth DCF
$27.28
$40.20
$61.62
78
Residual Income
$14.73
$17.59
$25.11
75
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$25.91
$39.24
$63.01
79
Owner Earnings
$14.77
$24.00
$40.47
74
5Y Revenue Exit
$26.20
$43.45
$67.63
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$28.79
$47.90
$72.20
74
5Y P/E Exit
$21.18
$34.85
$50.50
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$24.68
$39.80
$57.35
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$27.37
$42.75
$60.41
68
10Y P/E Exit
$22.68
$34.10
$45.86
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$16.71
$29.94
$36.89
66
EPV
$21.46
$26.77
$31.40
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$18.69
$24.37
$30.15
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$18.69
$25.52
$33.73
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$33.18
$44.23
$55.29
63
P/S Multiple
$31.33
$41.78
$52.22
58
P/B Multiple
$15.32
$20.43
$25.53
55
EV/EBIT
$38.61
$54.93
$71.26
65
EV/EBITDA
$36.88
$52.62
$68.36
67
EV/Revenue
$29.26
$46.23
$63.20
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$5.67
$7.60
$11.35
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$27.28
$40.20
$61.62
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$26.20
$44.04
$65.41
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$14.73
$17.59
$25.11
75
ROIC Compounder
$22.06
$28.55
$35.19
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$23.57
$33.68
$43.78
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
55/100
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Profitability
45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
27
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
71
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
68
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
99
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
76
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.1% vs 3.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 18%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.3% a year for the price and −2.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+1.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−1.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)−0.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)−0.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)−0.1%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atmos Energy Corporation ATO | $156.38 | $77.00 | −51% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €45.25 | €45.97 | +2% |
| NiSource Inc NI | $39.50 | $19.90 | −50% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$7.08 | HK$4.79 | −32% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹172.70 | ₹132.97 | −23% |
| Italgas S.p.A IG | €8.35 | €9.19 | +10% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥18.54 | ¥36.99 | +100% |
| UGI Corporation UGI | $36.24 | $32.74 | −10% |
| ENN Energy Holdings 2688 | HK$48.76 | HK$107.85 | +121% |
| Southwest Gas Holdings SWX | $81.87 | $57.47 | −30% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $44.23 versus a price of $33.53, about +32% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GASNF?
Our model-based fair value for Naturgy Energy Group is $44.23 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $33.53.
What is the quality score of GASNF?
Naturgy Energy Group has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $44.23 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $27.51, optimistic scenario $55.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Naturgy Energy Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $44.23, about +32% upside versus a price of $33.53 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $27.51, optimistic scenario $55.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF)?
Naturgy Energy Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €19.1B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Naturgy Energy Group would have to grow free cash flow by +1.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.9 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GASNF use?
Our models discount Naturgy Energy Group at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.45, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Naturgy Energy Group that is +1.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Naturgy Energy Group grew +4.9 % a year. The price currently implies +1.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Naturgy Energy Group (+1.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.22 %: that much free cash flow Naturgy Energy Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Naturgy Energy Group it is $44.23 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $33.53. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Naturgy Energy Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, GASNF trades below its calculated fair value: price $33.53, fair value $44.23, a gap of about +32% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GASNF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($33.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($44.23). For Naturgy Energy Group the two are $10.70 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Naturgy Energy Group worth?
The market values Naturgy Energy Group at about $32.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $33.53; our models calculate a fair value of $44.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GASNF?
Our models span a range for Naturgy Energy Group: cautious scenario $27.51, base $44.23, optimistic $55.29 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $33.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
Which stocks are comparable to Naturgy Energy Group?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Atmos Energy Corporation, Uniper SE, NiSource Inc, The Hong Kong and China Gas Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Naturgy Energy Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $33.53, calculated fair value $44.23 (+32%), Quality Score 55/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GASNF calculated?
We run Naturgy Energy Group through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $44.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Naturgy Energy Group currently trades 24 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $33.53. Our model-based fair value is $44.23, about +32% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Naturgy Energy Group right now?
Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($27.51 to $55.29) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF) come from?
Earnings per share at Naturgy Energy Group grew +4.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.6 %, EBIT margin +3.6 %, tax rate −1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Naturgy Energy Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF)?
The market capitalisation of Naturgy Energy Group is $32.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Naturgy Energy Group is 11.4 (as of Jun 20, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Naturgy Energy Group is 1.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF)?
Earnings per share at Naturgy Energy Group are $2.57 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF)?
The net margin of Naturgy Energy Group is 10.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Naturgy Energy Group is 22.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Naturgy Energy Group is 8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF)?
The operating margin of Naturgy Energy Group is 17.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF)?
Revenue at Naturgy Energy Group is growing −6.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −17.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF)?
Earnings per share at Naturgy Energy Group are growing +13.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Naturgy Energy Group (GASNF) carry?
The net debt of Naturgy Energy Group is €12.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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