Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $29.7B
Atmos Energy Corporation
ATO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price −3.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 50% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($120.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($52.83 to $120.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $77.07 – $191.21 · fair‑value band $52.83 – $120.72 · the $171.98 price screens above the $85.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) currently trades at $171.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $85.67, implying the stock looks roughly 50.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Atmos Energy Corporation generated revenue of $4.9B at a net margin of 27.6%. Revenue grew 0.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.6%. Net debt stands at $9.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $52.83 (bear case) to $120.72 (bull case); at $171.98, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -19% fair-value upside, at -50%, ATO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($125.62) versus Economic Profit ($32.70). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Atmos Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the regulated natural gas distribution, and pipeline and storage businesses in the United States. It operates through two segments, Distribution, and Pipeline and Storage.
Full company description
Atmos Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the regulated natural gas distribution, and pipeline and storage businesses in the United States. It operates through two segments, Distribution, and Pipeline and Storage. The Distribution segment is involved in the regulated natural gas distribution and related sales operations in eight states. This segment distributes natural gas to approximately 3.4 million residential, commercial, public authority, and industrial customers; and owned 76,000 miles of underground distribution and transmission mains. The Pipeline and Storage segment engages in the pipeline and storage operations. This segment transports natural gas for third parties and manages five underground storage facilities in Texas; provides ancillary services customary to the pipeline industry, including parking arrangements, lending, and inventory sales; and owned 5,700 miles of gas transmission lines. Atmos Energy Corporation was founded in 1906 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Atmos Energy Corporation reported revenue of $4.7B in FY2025 versus $3.4B in FY2021, a compound +8.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding +15.8%/yr from FY2021.
ATO screens 50% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Atmos Energy Gears Up to Report Q3 Earnings: Here's What to Expect
- Atmos Energy (ATO) Could Be a Great Choice
- Atmos Energy (ATO) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Gas · 103 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naturgy Energy Group NTGY | €28.84 | €35.80 | +24% |
| NiSource Inc NI | $47.07 | $28.59 | -39% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €42.80 | €49.13 | +15% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$7.03 | HK$5.08 | -28% |
| Italgas S.p.A IG | €9.98 | €8.11 | -19% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹171.71 | ₹147.74 | -14% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥16.69 | ¥25.71 | +54% |
| Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL | ₹723.90 | ₹101.36 | -86% |
| UGI Corporation UGI | $35.84 | $27.13 | -24% |
| Southwest Gas Holdings SWX | $92.06 | $70.67 | -23% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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