Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Atmos Energy Corporation is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $77.07 – $191.21 · fair‑value band $52.83 – $120.72 · the $160.30 price screens above the $77.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
Atmos Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the regulated natural gas distribution, and pipeline and storage businesses in the United States. It operates through two segments, Distribution, and Pipeline and Storage.
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Atmos Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the regulated natural gas distribution, and pipeline and storage businesses in the United States. It operates through two segments, Distribution, and Pipeline and Storage. The Distribution segment is involved in the regulated natural gas distribution and related sales operations in eight states. This segment distributes natural gas to approximately 3.4 million residential, commercial, public authority, and industrial customers; and owned 76,000 miles of underground distribution and transmission mains. The Pipeline and Storage segment engages in the pipeline and storage operations. This segment transports natural gas for third parties and manages five underground storage facilities in Texas; provides ancillary services customary to the pipeline industry, including parking arrangements, lending, and inventory sales; and owned 5,700 miles of gas transmission lines. Atmos Energy Corporation was founded in 1906 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
Stock analysis
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) currently trades at $160.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $77.92, implying the stock looks roughly 105.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $114.35 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $160.30 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $32.70, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $52.83 (bear) to $120.72 (bull), the price of $160.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Atmos Energy Corporation reported revenue of $4.7B in FY2025 versus $3.4B in FY2021, a compound +8.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding +15.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $29.7B · P/E ratio 19.8 · P/S ratio 5.04 · EPS (TTM) $8.10 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 25.5% · Return on equity 9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −51%, ATO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $52.83Fair Value $77.92Bull $120.72
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.25 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.50/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9% vs 9%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 33%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Atmos Energy Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 102 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−49% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)28% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)39% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.66× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)19.8× · Pricier than median
P/B2.19× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)6.08× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA15.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG2.15× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)3· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)38· sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)67· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)47· sector 71
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Atmos Energy Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ATO
Frequently asked questions
Is Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $77.92 versus a price of $160.30, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ATO?
Our model-based fair value for Atmos Energy Corporation is $77.92 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $160.30.
What is the quality score of ATO?
Atmos Energy Corporation has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $77.92 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $52.83, optimistic scenario $120.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Atmos Energy Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $77.92, about −51% upside versus a price of $160.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $52.83, optimistic scenario $120.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)?
Atmos Energy Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does Atmos Energy Corporation pay a dividend?
Atmos Energy Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.33% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Atmos Energy Corporation it is $77.92 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of $160.30. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Atmos Energy Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, ATO trades above its calculated fair value: price $160.30, fair value $77.92, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ATO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($160.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($77.92). For Atmos Energy Corporation the two are $82.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Atmos Energy Corporation worth?
The market values Atmos Energy Corporation at about $29.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is $160.30; our models calculate a fair value of $77.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ATO?
Our models span a range for Atmos Energy Corporation: cautious scenario $52.83, base $77.92, optimistic $120.72 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price $160.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ATO?
Atmos Energy Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $77.92 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 2.2, P/S 6.1, EV/EBITDA 15.1.
What is the PEG ratio of ATO?
The PEG ratio of Atmos Energy Corporation is 2.15 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Atmos Energy Corporation (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 9.6%, debt of 0.66 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ATO from its 52-week high?
Atmos Energy Corporation trades at $160.30, about 16% below its 52-week high of $191.43 and 9% above the low of $146.70 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $77.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Atmos Energy Corporation?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, NiSource Inc, Uniper SE, The Hong Kong and China Gas Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Atmos Energy Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price $160.30, calculated fair value $77.92 (−51%), Quality Score 40/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ATO calculated?
We run Atmos Energy Corporation through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $77.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Atmos Energy Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $160.30. Our model-based fair value is $77.92, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Atmos Energy Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($120.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($52.83 to $120.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) come from?
Earnings per share at Atmos Energy Corporation grew +9.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.9 %, EBIT margin +5.8 %, tax rate +3.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Atmos Energy Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)?
The market capitalisation of Atmos Energy Corporation is $29.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Atmos Energy Corporation is 5.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)?
Earnings per share at Atmos Energy Corporation are $8.10 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)?
The dividend yield of Atmos Energy Corporation is 2.3% (payout 46.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)?
The net margin of Atmos Energy Corporation is 25.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Atmos Energy Corporation is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Atmos Energy Corporation is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)?
The operating margin of Atmos Energy Corporation is 39.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)?
Revenue at Atmos Energy Corporation is growing +0.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)?
Earnings per share at Atmos Energy Corporation are growing +14.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) generate?
The free cash flow of Atmos Energy Corporation is −$1.5B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) carry?
The net debt of Atmos Energy Corporation is $9.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 17, 2026