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Manila Water Company (MWTCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Manila Water Company $0.97, price $0.72, upside +34.7%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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MW
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Manila Water Company
MWTCF · USUndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value $0.9700 · Undervalued (+34.7%)
!Quality 51/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +13.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 40.4% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!4.1% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Wide moat 69/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $0.6400 to $2.00
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0862 – $0.7500 · fair‑value band $0.6400 – $2.00 · the $0.7200 price screens below the $0.9700 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Manila Water Company, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides water treatment and distribution, sewerage, and sanitation services in the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company also offers integrated used water, pipework, engineering, procurement, and management services.
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Manila Water Company, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides water treatment and distribution, sewerage, and sanitation services in the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company also offers integrated used water, pipework, engineering, procurement, and management services. It serves residential, commercial, semi-business, and industrial customers. Manila Water Company, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Makati City, the Philippines.
Stock analysis
Manila Water Company (MWTCF) currently trades at $0.7200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.9700, implying the stock looks roughly 25.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $2.07 per share, and 10 of the 16 models we run sit above the $0.7200 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.3700, and 6 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.6400 (bear) to $2.00 (bull), the price of $0.7200 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Manila Water Company reported revenue of 39.8B PHP in FY2025 versus 20.2B PHP in FY2021, a compound +18.5%/yr. Reported net income was 15.8B PHP in FY2025, compounding +44.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.1B · P/E ratio 8.0 · P/S ratio 3.17 · EPS (TTM) $0.0900 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 39.6% · Return on equity 20.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at 35%, MWTCF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.6400
Fair Value $0.9700
Bull $2.00
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$0.6000
$0.8000
$1.27
74
Owner Earnings
$0.9500
$2.07
$3.86
72
EPV
$0.3000
$0.4500
$0.5900
72
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
$0.9500
$2.07
$3.86
72
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.6600
$2.71
$3.69
64
Lynch FV
$0.6800
$0.9700
$1.27
61
PEG = 1.0
$0.6800
$0.9700
$1.27
57
EPV
$0.3000
$0.4500
$0.5900
72
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.2900
$0.5800
$0.8900
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.2900
$0.5100
$0.6200
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$1.30
$1.74
$2.17
63
P/S Multiple
$0.4600
$0.6100
$0.7600
58
P/B Multiple
$0.7500
$1.00
$1.26
55
EV/EBIT
$0.8800
$1.40
$1.93
64
EV/EBITDA
$0.6000
$1.02
$1.45
65
EV/Revenue
n/a
n/a
$0.1000
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.2800
$0.3700
$0.5600
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.6000
$0.8000
$1.27
74
ROIC Compounder
$0.3000
$0.4500
$0.6300
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$1.08
$1.54
$2.00
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
51/100
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Profitability
45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
67
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
10
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
45
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
63
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
98
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
89
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.0% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in PHP (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in PHP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+44.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+40.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.22.7% vs 7.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.44% → 57%
2025 sits 199% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 61 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Utilities sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Utilities
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Water Works Company AWK | $127.86 | $64.66 | −49% |
| Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG | $39.23 | $23.30 | −41% |
| Guangdong Investment Limited 0270 | HK$8.71 | HK$12.82 | +47% |
| Grandblue Environment Co 600323 | ¥29.48 | ¥57.09 | +94% |
| American States Water Company AWR | $81.35 | $38.24 | −53% |
| Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 | ¥7.01 | ¥9.09 | +30% |
| Beijing Capital Eco-Environment Protection Group 600008 | ¥2.71 | ¥3.43 | +27% |
| Chongqing Water Group 601158 | ¥4.00 | ¥1.76 | −56% |
| California Water Service Group CWT | $45.84 | $25.01 | −45% |
| H2O America, through its subsidiaries, HTO | $61.63 | $29.34 | −52% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Manila Water Company (MWTCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.9700 versus a price of $0.7200, about +35% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MWTCF?
Our model-based fair value for Manila Water Company is $0.9700 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.7200.
What is the quality score of MWTCF?
Manila Water Company has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Manila Water Company (MWTCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.9700 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.6400, optimistic scenario $2.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Manila Water Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.9700, about +35% upside versus a price of $0.7200 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.6400, optimistic scenario $2.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Manila Water Company (MWTCF)?
Manila Water Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 41.2B PHP (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Manila Water Company pay a dividend?
Manila Water Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.10% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Manila Water Company (MWTCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Manila Water Company it is $0.9700 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.7200. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Manila Water Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MWTCF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.7200, fair value $0.9700, a gap of about +35% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MWTCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.7200); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.9700). For Manila Water Company the two are $0.2500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Manila Water Company worth?
The market values Manila Water Company at about $2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.7200; our models calculate a fair value of $0.9700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MWTCF?
Our models span a range for Manila Water Company: cautious scenario $0.6400, base $0.9700, optimistic $2.00 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.7200). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MWTCF?
Manila Water Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.9700 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 8.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Manila Water Company (MWTCF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Manila Water Company (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 20.8%, debt of 1.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Manila Water Company?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, Essential Utilities, Inc, Guangdong Investment Limited, Grandblue Environment Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Manila Water Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.7200, calculated fair value $0.9700 (+35%), Quality Score 51/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MWTCF calculated?
We run Manila Water Company through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.9700, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Manila Water Company currently trades 26 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Manila Water Company (MWTCF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.7200. Our model-based fair value is $0.9700, about +35% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Manila Water Company right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($0.6400 to $2.00). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Manila Water Company (MWTCF) come from?
Earnings per share at Manila Water Company grew +3.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.5 %, EBIT margin +0.6 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Manila Water Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Manila Water Company (MWTCF)?
The market capitalisation of Manila Water Company is $2.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Manila Water Company (MWTCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Manila Water Company is 3.17 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Manila Water Company (MWTCF)?
Earnings per share at Manila Water Company are $0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Manila Water Company (MWTCF)?
The dividend yield of Manila Water Company is 4.1% (payout 32.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Manila Water Company (MWTCF)?
The net margin of Manila Water Company is 39.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Manila Water Company (MWTCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Manila Water Company is 20.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Manila Water Company (MWTCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Manila Water Company is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Manila Water Company (MWTCF)?
The operating margin of Manila Water Company is 58.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Manila Water Company (MWTCF)?
Revenue at Manila Water Company is growing +11.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Manila Water Company (MWTCF)?
Earnings per share at Manila Water Company are growing +23.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Manila Water Company (MWTCF) generate?
The free cash flow of Manila Water Company is −1.0B PHP (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Manila Water Company (MWTCF) carry?
The net debt of Manila Water Company is 135B PHP (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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