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Neuropace Inc (NPCE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Neuropace Inc stock $8.66, price $13.12, that is 34.0% below the price, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Healthcare US

NI Neuropace Inc logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Neuropace Inc

NPCE · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 34% below what the stock costs today.

Revenue last quarter +17% vs. a year ago.
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +19.4 %/yr in USD)
Fair value $8.66 · Overvalued
Quality 38/100
Loss-making · -17.9% net margin (TTM)
High debt
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/10)
Narrow moat 8/100 · thin data
Thin data
Estimate
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$23.85 $1.29 Fair Value $8.66 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.29 – $23.85 · fair‑value band $6.49 – $10.82 · the $13.12 price screens above the $8.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

NeuroPace, Inc. operates as a medical device company in the United States. The company develops RNS system, a brain-responsive neuromodulation system that delivers personalized, real-time treatment at the seizure source for treating drug-resistant focal epilepsy.

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Its RNS System includes RNS neurostimulator, cortical strip and depth leads, and Patient Remote Monitor, as well as other implantable and non-implantable accessories.

In addition, the company provides physician tablet which is used for prescribing and managing clinicians for programming implanted devices and managing patient care; and patient data management system, a secure online database that collects data that have been recorded by the RNS System; and nSight Platform, which provide clinicians with personalized patient reports, as well as programming suggestions.

It sells its products to hospital facilities for initial RNS System implant procedures and for replacement procedures. NeuroPace, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.

Stock analysis

Neuropace Inc (NPCE) currently trades at $13.12, while our estimate is $8.66, 34% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $6.49 (bear) to $10.82 (bull), the price of $13.12 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Neuropace Inc reported revenue of $100.0M in FY2025 versus $45.2M in FY2021, a compound +22.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$21.5M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $447M Small · P/S ratio 4.01 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5700 · Net margin −17.9% · Return on equity −103% · Return on assets (EBIT) −23.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin −22.5% · Revenue (TTM) $107M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 8 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −34%, NPCE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $6.49 Fair Value $8.66 Bull $10.82
Price $13.12 · Downside -34.0%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 34
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 97
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 21
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 10
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 28
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 24
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 19
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

  • SaleMartha MorrellCHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER25,000 shares at $15.97$399,250Dec 15, 202510b5-1 plan

Plus 21 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 9, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−31.7% (2020) → −16.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

NPCE screens overvalued: fair value 34% below the price. Compare with Abbott Laboratories, →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Devices · 401 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 38 · Below median
Fair Value upside −34.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −20.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) −17.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) −22.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 17.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 3.09× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper

P/B 23.51× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 4.18× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)86 · sector 44
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 34

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Devices stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co 300760 ¥178.92 ¥202.57 +13% vs NPCE
Stryker Corporation SYK $325.73 $358.46 +10% vs NPCE
Boston Scientific Corporation BSX $44.02 $48.42 +10% vs NPCE
DexCom, Inc DXCM $81.07 $89.18 +10% vs NPCE
STERIS plc STE $256.94 $279.53 +9% vs NPCE
GE HealthCare Technologies Inc GEHC $84.03 $69.92 −17% vs NPCE
Edwards Lifesciences Corporation EW $104.71 $81.94 −22% vs NPCE
Abbott Laboratories, ABT $110.51 $75.28 −32% vs NPCE
Medtronic plc MDT $102.79 $65.61 −36% vs NPCE
Koninklijke Philips N.V PHIA €27.06 €15.23 −44% vs NPCE

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Neuropace Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Neuropace Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NPCE

Frequently asked questions

Is Neuropace Inc (NPCE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $8.66 versus a price of $13.12, about 34% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NPCE?
Our estimate for Neuropace Inc is $8.66 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.12.
What is the quality score of NPCE?
Neuropace Inc has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Neuropace Inc (NPCE)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $8.66 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $6.49, optimistic scenario $10.82. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Neuropace Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $8.66, about 34% lower versus a price of $13.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.49, optimistic scenario $10.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Neuropace Inc (NPCE)?
Neuropace Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $107M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Neuropace Inc (NPCE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Neuropace Inc it is $8.66 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $13.12.
Is Neuropace Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, NPCE trades above its calculated fair value: price $13.12, fair value $8.66, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NPCE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.66). For Neuropace Inc the two are $4.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Neuropace Inc worth?
The market values Neuropace Inc at about $447M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $13.12; our models calculate a fair value of $8.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NPCE?
Our models span a range for Neuropace Inc: cautious scenario $6.49, base $8.66, optimistic $10.82 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $13.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Neuropace Inc (NPCE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Neuropace Inc (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −103.3%, debt of 3.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NPCE from its 52-week high?
Neuropace Inc trades at $13.12, about 32% below its 52-week high of $19.29 and 7% above the low of $12.24 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Neuropace Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Abbott Laboratories,, Medtronic plc, Stryker Corporation, Boston Scientific Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Neuropace Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $13.12, calculated fair value $8.66 (−34%), Quality Score 38/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.2% above its aggregate fair value. Neuropace Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Neuropace Inc (NPCE)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was $13.12. Our estimate is $8.66, about 34% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Neuropace Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Neuropace Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Neuropace Inc (NPCE)?
The market capitalisation of Neuropace Inc is $447M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Neuropace Inc (NPCE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Neuropace Inc is 4.01 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Neuropace Inc (NPCE)?
Earnings per share at Neuropace Inc are $−0.5700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Neuropace Inc (NPCE)?
The net margin of Neuropace Inc is −17.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Neuropace Inc (NPCE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Neuropace Inc is −103% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Neuropace Inc (NPCE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Neuropace Inc is −23.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Neuropace Inc (NPCE)?
The operating margin of Neuropace Inc is −22.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Neuropace Inc (NPCE)?
Revenue at Neuropace Inc is growing +17.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +30.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Neuropace Inc (NPCE) generate?
The free cash flow of Neuropace Inc is −$11.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Neuropace Inc (NPCE) carry?
The net debt of Neuropace Inc is $49.1M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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