Medtronic plc (MDT) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $106B
Medtronic plc
MDT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $73.33 to $65.57 (−10.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +2.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($35.87 to $87.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $63.45 – $115.57 · fair‑value band $35.87 – $87.04 · the $85.92 price screens above the $65.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Medtronic plc (MDT) currently trades at $85.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $65.57, implying the stock looks roughly 23.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Medtronic plc generated revenue of $36.4B at a net margin of 13.2%. Revenue grew 9.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.9%. Net debt stands at $26.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $35.87 (bear case) to $87.04 (bull case); at $85.92, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -24%, MDT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($69.14) versus Asset-Based ($25.89). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Medtronic plc develops, manufactures, and sells device-based medical therapies to healthcare systems, physicians, clinicians, and patients in the United States, Ireland, and internationally.
Full company description
Medtronic plc develops, manufactures, and sells device-based medical therapies to healthcare systems, physicians, clinicians, and patients in the United States, Ireland, and internationally. The Cardiovascular Portfolio segment offers implantable cardiac pacemakers, cardioverter defibrillators, and cardiac resynchronization therapy devices; cardiac ablation products; insertable cardiac monitor systems; TYRX products; and remote monitoring and patient-centered software. It also provides aortic valves, surgical valve replacement and repair products, endovascular stent grafts and accessories, and transcatheter pulmonary valves, and percutaneous coronary intervention products, percutaneous angioplasty balloons, and other products. The Neuroscience Portfolio segment offers medical devices and implants, biologic solutions, spinal cord stimulation and brain modulation systems, implantable drug infusion systems, and interventional products, as well as nerve ablation system under the Accurian name. The segment offers its products for spinal surgeons, neurosurgeons, neurologists, pain management specialists, anesthesiologists, orthopedic surgeons, urologists, urogynecologists, and interventional radiologists, as well as ear, nose, and throat specialists, and energy surgical instruments. The Medical Surgical Portfolio segment offers surgical stapling devices, vessel sealing instruments, wound closure and electrosurgery products, AI-powered surgical video and analytics platform, robotic-assisted surgery products, hernia mechanical devices, mesh implants, gynecology products, gastrointestinal and hepatologic diagnostics and therapies, and therapies to treat diseases and conditions, and patient monitoring and airway management products. The Diabetes Operating Unit segment provides insulin pumps and consumables, continuous glucose monitoring systems and sensors, and InPen, a smart insulin pen. Medtronic plc was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Galway, Ireland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Medtronic plc reported revenue of $36.4B in FY2026 versus $31.7B in FY2022, a compound +3.5%/yr. Reported net income was $4.8B in FY2026, compounding −1.2%/yr from FY2022.
MDT screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Abbott Laboratories, →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Medtronic Expands CE Mark Indication For Affera System For Ventricular Arrhythmias Treatment
- Medtronic announces expanded CE Mark indication for Affera™ Mapping and Ablation System and Sphere-9™ Catheter for treatment of ventricular
- I'm Calling It: Medtronic (MDT) Will Soar 40% by the End of 2026
- Do Wall Street Analysts Like Medtronic Stock?
Peer Group
Medical Devices · 350 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Devices stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abbott Laboratories, ABT | $100.68 | $74.79 | -26% |
| Stryker Corporation SYK | $316.44 | $186.28 | -41% |
| Boston Scientific Corporation BSX | $43.04 | $38.44 | -11% |
| Edwards Lifesciences Corporation EW | $85.73 | $41.02 | -52% |
| Siemens Healthineers AG SHL | €34.59 | €33.87 | -2% |
| DexCom, Inc DXCM | $74.96 | $38.95 | -48% |
| Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co 300760 | ¥149.43 | ¥147.63 | -1% |
| Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare Co 688271 | ¥109.00 | ¥43.60 | -60% |
| Demant A/S DEMANT | kr 276.60 | kr 161.17 | -42% |
| Getinge AB GETIB | kr 206.80 | kr 192.14 | -7% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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