Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value ¥1.84 · Strongly overvalued (−80%)
✓Quality 69/100
!Mixed Growth(revenue YoY −6.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.5% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
·0.65% dividend yield
!Trails peers(3/12)
!Narrow moat34/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.39 – ¥16.44 · the ¥9.22 price screens above the ¥1.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co., Ltd. researches and develops, designs, manufactures, sells, and services grinding process system equipment in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
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Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co., Ltd. researches and develops, designs, manufactures, sells, and services grinding process system equipment in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company offers roller presses, high-pressure roller mills, roller systems, powder separators that are used in cement building materials, mining, metallurgy, chemical industry, and other industries. It is also involved in research, manufacturing, and sales of electromechanical equipment, mechanical equipment; providing technical services and technical consulting; procurement, installation, commissioning of mechanical equipment; electronic product manufacturing and sales of electronic product; research and development of aircraft parts. Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Chengdu, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651) currently trades at ¥9.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.84, implying the stock looks roughly 401.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥3.07 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥9.22 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.6800, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd reported revenue of 726M CNY in FY2025 versus 959M CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.7%/yr. Reported net income was 57.5M CNY in FY2025, compounding −26.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 8.8B CNY (≈ $1.3B) · P/E ratio 230.5 · P/S ratio 18.3 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0400 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 7.9% · Return on equity 1.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −80%, 002651 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥1.84Fair Value ¥1.84Bull ¥1.84
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−19.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−20.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−21% vs −8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 9%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 828 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−87% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.7% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)230.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.98× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)11.17× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF10.4× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)57· sector 22
PAST (return on equity)6· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)13· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002651
Frequently asked questions
Is Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.84 versus a price of ¥9.22, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002651?
Our model-based fair value for Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd is ¥1.84 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥9.22.
What is the quality score of 002651?
Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.84 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.84, about −80% upside versus a price of ¥9.22 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651)?
Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 748M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.65% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +33.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.4 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 002651 use?
Our models discount Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.58, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd that is +33.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd grew -2.4 % a year. The price currently implies +33.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (+33.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.35 %: that much free cash flow Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd it is ¥1.84 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of ¥9.22. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 002651 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥9.22, fair value ¥1.84, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002651?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥9.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.84). For Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd the two are ¥7.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd worth?
The market values Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd at about 8.8B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is ¥9.22; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.84 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of 002651?
Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 230.5 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥1.84 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.0, P/S 11.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 1.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002651 from its 52-week high?
Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd trades at ¥9.22, about 45% below its 52-week high of ¥16.67 and 20% above the low of ¥7.69 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price ¥9.22, calculated fair value ¥1.84 (−80%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002651 calculated?
We run Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651) come from?
Earnings per share at Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd grew −5.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.3 %, EBIT margin −8.6 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651)?
The market capitalisation of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd is 8.8B CNY (≈ $1.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd is 18.3 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651)?
Earnings per share at Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd are ¥0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 230.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651)?
The dividend yield of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd is 0.7% (payout 150%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651)?
The net margin of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd is 7.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd is 1.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651)?
The operating margin of Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd is 15.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651)?
Revenue at Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd is growing +11.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651)?
Earnings per share at Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd are growing −25.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd (002651) hold?
Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 1.5B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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