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SMAWF fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of SMAWF $180, price $309, upside -41.8%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US · Home Germany · ISIN DE0007236101

S SMAWF logo Broad data Sep 29, 2026

SMAWF

SMAWF · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $179.96 · Strongly overvalued (−41.8%)
✓Quality 62/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +6.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓1.7% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 58/100
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$342.10 $83.59 Fair Value $179.96 Apr 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $83.59 – $342.10 · fair‑value band $119.50 – $240.42 · the $309.29 price screens above the $179.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

Siemens, a technology company, focuses in the areas of automation and digitalization in Europe, Commonwealth of Independent States, Africa, the Middle East, the Americas, Asia, and Australia. It operates through Digital Industries, Smart Infrastructure, Mobility, Siemens Healthineers, and Siemens Financial Services (SFS) segments.

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Siemens, a technology company, focuses in the areas of automation and digitalization in Europe, Commonwealth of Independent States, Africa, the Middle East, the Americas, Asia, and Australia. It operates through Digital Industries, Smart Infrastructure, Mobility, Siemens Healthineers, and Siemens Financial Services (SFS) segments. The Digital Industries segment provides automation systems and software for factories, numerical control systems, servo motors, drives and inverters, and integrated automation systems for machine tools and production machines; process control systems, machine-to-machine communication products, sensors and radio frequency identification systems; production and product lifecycle management software, and simulation and testing of mechatronic system. The Smart Infrastructure segment offers products, systems, solutions, services, and software to support sustainable transition from fossil and renewable energy sources; sustainable buildings and communities; and buildings, electrification, and electrical products. The Mobility segment provides rail passenger and freight transportation, such as metro systems, trams and light rail, and commuter trains, as well as trains and passenger coaches; locomotives and solutions for automated transportation and leasing; products and solutions for rail automation and electrification; maintenance and digital services; and digital and cloud-based solutions, and related services. The Siemens Healthineers segment develops, manufactures, and sells various diagnostic and therapeutic products and services; and provides clinical consulting and training services. The Siemens Financial Services segment offers debt and equity investments; leasing, lending, and working capital; structured, equipment, and project financing; and financial advisory services. The company was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany.

Stock analysis

SMAWF (SMAWF) currently trades at $309.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $179.96, 41.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $225.58 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $309.29 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $61.55, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $119.50 (bear) to $240.42 (bull), the price of $309.29 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

SMAWF reported revenue of €78.9B in FY2025 versus €62.3B in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was €9.6B in FY2025, compounding +11.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $246B · P/E ratio 27.9 · P/S ratio 3.40 · EPS (TTM) $11.09 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 12.2% · Return on equity 12.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −42%, SMAWF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $119.50 Fair Value $179.96 Bull $240.42
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.74 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $147.64 $220.81 $364.31 79
Growth DCF $155.85 $227.77 $358.08 77
Residual Income $96.49 $117.27 $158.85 76
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $147.64 $220.81 $364.31 79
Owner Earnings $143.74 $215.40 $355.94 75
5Y Revenue Exit $99.28 $154.35 $234.15 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $126.21 $200.27 $298.00 74
5Y P/E Exit $150.52 $241.73 $349.94 70
10Y Revenue Exit $112.08 $163.76 $222.02 67
10Y EBITDA Exit $132.52 $194.84 $265.10 69
10Y P/E Exit $147.81 $222.89 $300.15 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $96.55 $166.04 $203.00 67
EPV $56.18 $73.34 $88.60 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $58.11 $74.31 $91.49 69
DDM Multi-Stage $58.11 $79.89 $107.61 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $223.62 $298.16 $372.71 63
P/S Multiple $174.71 $232.94 $291.18 58
P/B Multiple $181.03 $241.37 $301.71 55
EV/EBIT $129.99 $187.02 $244.05 65
EV/EBITDA $138.50 $198.37 $258.24 67
EV/Revenue $81.01 $133.35 $185.68 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $45.93 $61.55 $91.87 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $155.85 $227.77 $358.08 77
Rev-Margin DCF $99.28 $157.76 $231.44 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $96.49 $117.27 $158.85 76
ROIC Compounder $56.18 $73.34 $88.60 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $157.91 $225.58 $293.26 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 65
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 51
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 42
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 59
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 61
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 88
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 78/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.4% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.9% vs 6.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 12%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.2% a year for the price and +3.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+6.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.7%

SMAWF screens overvalued: fair value 42% below the price. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 789 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 62 · Above median
Fair Value upside −48.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 12.6% · Above median
Return on assets 3.5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 9.7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 12.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.68× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 27.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 3.87× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.02× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 22.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 22.7× · Pricier than median
PEG 5.38× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
GE Vernova Inc GEV $950.49 $142.61 −85%
SIE SIE €271.90 €150.42 −45%
Eaton Corporation ETN $433.27 $173.12 −60%
Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH $970.37 $494.81 −49%
Emerson Electric Co EMR $155.10 $62.54 −60%
Illinois Tool Works Inc ITW $257.28 $153.33 −40%
Cummins Inc CMI $516.57 $359.11 −30%
AMETEK, Inc AME $250.74 $125.77 −50%
Rockwell Automation, Inc ROK $442.45 $139.31 −69%
Sandvik AB SAND kr 362.00 kr 193.59 −47%

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SMAWF · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SMAWF Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SMAWF

Frequently asked questions

Is SMAWF overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $179.96 versus a price of $309.29, about −42% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SMAWF?
Our model-based fair value for SMAWF is $179.96 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $309.29.
What is the quality score of SMAWF?
SMAWF has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SMAWF?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $179.96 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $119.50, optimistic scenario $240.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SMAWF stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $179.96, about −42% upside versus a price of $309.29 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $119.50, optimistic scenario $240.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SMAWF?
SMAWF reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €79.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does SMAWF pay a dividend?
SMAWF currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.73% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into SMAWF?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SMAWF would have to grow free cash flow by +11.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.7 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SMAWF use?
Our models discount SMAWF at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.29, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SMAWF that is +11.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SMAWF delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SMAWF grew +6.7 % a year. The price currently implies +11.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SMAWF growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SMAWF (+11.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SMAWF?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.96 %: that much free cash flow SMAWF produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SMAWF?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SMAWF it is $179.96 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $309.29. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SMAWF stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, SMAWF trades above its calculated fair value: price $309.29, fair value $179.96, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMAWF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($309.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($179.96). For SMAWF the two are $129.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SMAWF worth?
The market values SMAWF at about $246B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $309.29; our models calculate a fair value of $179.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMAWF?
Our models span a range for SMAWF: cautious scenario $119.50, base $179.96, optimistic $240.42 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $309.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SMAWF?
SMAWF trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.9 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $179.96 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 5.4, P/B 3.9, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 22.7.
What is the PEG ratio of SMAWF?
The PEG ratio of SMAWF is 5.38 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of SMAWF?
Balance-sheet figures for SMAWF (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 12.6%, debt of 0.68 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMAWF from its 52-week high?
SMAWF trades at $309.29, about 10% below its 52-week high of $342.10 and 34% above the low of $230.45 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $179.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SMAWF?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SMAWF stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $309.29, calculated fair value $179.96 (−42%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMAWF calculated?
We run SMAWF through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $179.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. SMAWF itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SMAWF?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $309.29. Our model-based fair value is $179.96, about −42% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SMAWF right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($240.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($119.50 to $240.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of SMAWF come from?
Earnings per share at SMAWF grew +4.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.8 %, EBIT margin +1.4 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of SMAWF

How large is the market capitalisation of SMAWF?
The market capitalisation of SMAWF is $246B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SMAWF?
The price-to-sales ratio of SMAWF is 3.40 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SMAWF?
Earnings per share at SMAWF are $11.09 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SMAWF?
The dividend yield of SMAWF is 1.7% (payout 48.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SMAWF?
The net margin of SMAWF is 12.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SMAWF?
The return on equity (ROE) of SMAWF is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SMAWF?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SMAWF is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SMAWF?
The operating margin of SMAWF is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast are earnings growing at SMAWF?
Earnings per share at SMAWF are growing −8.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SMAWF carry?
The net debt of SMAWF is €41.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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