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China First Heavy Industries (601106) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what China First Heavy Industries is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Industrials · CN · ISIN CNE100000L48

CF Thin data Sep 13, 2026

China First Heavy Industries

601106 · SHG

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value ¥0.9700 · Strongly overvalued (−69%)
!Quality 41/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −13.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -2.3% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (5/13)
!Narrow moat 19/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on balance sheet: 20 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 26 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥6.60 ¥2.20 Fair Value ¥0.9700 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥2.20 – ¥6.60 · fair‑value band ¥0.5700 – ¥1.44 · the ¥3.09 price screens above the ¥0.9700 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

China First Heavy Industries manufactures and sells technical equipment in the People's Republic of China and internationally.

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China First Heavy Industries manufactures and sells technical equipment in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company offers nuclear power equipment; petrochemical equipment, such as coal liquefaction, and hydrogenation reactors, PTA and ethylene oxide reactor, oversized heat exchangers, coal gasifiers, etc.; metallurgical equipment, including continuous casting machine, converters and electric furnaces, cold and hot strip rolling mill, sectional beam, and long product rolling mill, shearing lines, plate levelers, slab sizing presses, and coilers, etc.; forging equipment comprising mechanical, hot die forging, stretch levelers, and large hydraulic presses; and engineering equipment, such as mining excavators, shield tunneling machines, plate bending, and roller mills. It also provides spare parts and special tolls; design service; product transportation and insurance service; technical guidance and training service; product installation and debugging services; after-sale maintenance services; and warehouse and storage services. In addition, the company engages in heavy equipment technology development; manufacturing of electrical products; glass fiber and product; and wind power services. Further, the company offers material technology research and development, and promotion services; import and export services; technical development, consultation, and exchange services, technology transfer and promotion services; international marketing business; and manufacture and sale of concrete structural, and technical services. It serves nuclear power, petrochemicals, hydrogenation, metallurgy sectors China First Heavy Industries was formerly known as First Heavy Machinery Works. The company was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Qiqihar, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

China First Heavy Industries (601106) currently trades at ¥3.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.9700, implying the stock looks roughly 218.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥0.9600 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the ¥3.09 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.5000, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥0.5700 (bear) to ¥1.44 (bull), the price of ¥3.09 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

China First Heavy Industries reported revenue of 9.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 23.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −19.3%/yr. Reported net income was −311M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 21.2B CNY (≈ $3.2B) · P/S ratio 2.41 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.0300 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin −3.2% · Return on equity −1.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.1% · Operating margin 3.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −69%, 601106 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥0.5700 Fair Value ¥0.9700 Bull ¥1.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF ¥0.5900 ¥0.9900 ¥1.56 79
Growth DCF ¥0.6200 ¥1.00 ¥1.51 77
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥0.5600 ¥1.03 ¥1.55 74
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥0.5900 ¥0.9900 ¥1.56 79
5Y Revenue Exit ¥0.4700 ¥0.8800 ¥1.37 71
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥0.5600 ¥1.03 ¥1.55 74
10Y Revenue Exit ¥0.4900 ¥0.8500 ¥1.29 66
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥0.5600 ¥0.9600 ¥1.42 67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA ¥0.6800 ¥1.04 ¥1.39 66
EV/Revenue ¥0.4600 ¥0.8200 ¥1.18 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.3800 ¥0.5000 ¥0.7500 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥0.6200 ¥1.00 ¥1.51 77
Rev-Margin DCF ¥0.4700 ¥0.8900 ¥1.33 71

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33

Profitability 7
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 36
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 14
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 57
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 23
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 22
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 86
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 18/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−40.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.2%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.6% (2020) → −0.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+26.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.

601106 screens 219% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 828 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.60× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.63× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.33× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 5.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.5× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)36 · sector 22
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)20 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)26 · sector 25

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
GE Vernova Inc GEV $957.27 $191.09 −80%
SIE SIE €264.65 €139.77 −47%
Eaton Corporation ETN $425.37 $168.65 −60%
Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH $950.23 $398.69 −58%
Atlas Copco AB ATCOA kr 202.80 kr 106.84 −47%
Cummins Inc CMI $556.75 $348.94 −37%
Illinois Tool Works Inc ITW $268.16 $145.84 −46%
Emerson Electric Co EMR $152.19 $58.44 −62%
AMETEK, Inc AME $241.87 $124.66 −48%
Rockwell Automation, Inc ROK $428.39 $125.56 −71%

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China First Heavy Industries · Fair Value
¥0.9700 −219%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China First Heavy Industries Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601106

Frequently asked questions

Is China First Heavy Industries (601106) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.9700 versus a price of ¥3.09, about −69% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 601106?
Our model-based fair value for China First Heavy Industries is ¥0.9700 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.09.
What is the quality score of 601106?
China First Heavy Industries has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.9700 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.5700, optimistic scenario ¥1.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China First Heavy Industries stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.9700, about −69% upside versus a price of ¥3.09 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.5700, optimistic scenario ¥1.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
China First Heavy Industries reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 10.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does China First Heavy Industries pay a dividend?
China First Heavy Industries currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.31% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China First Heavy Industries would have to grow free cash flow by +26.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -13.2 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 601106 use?
Our models discount China First Heavy Industries at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China First Heavy Industries that is +26.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China First Heavy Industries (601106) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China First Heavy Industries grew -13.2 % a year. The price currently implies +26.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China First Heavy Industries (601106) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China First Heavy Industries (+26.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.97 %: that much free cash flow China First Heavy Industries produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China First Heavy Industries it is ¥0.9700 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of ¥3.09. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China First Heavy Industries stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 601106 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥3.09, fair value ¥0.9700, a gap of about −69% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601106?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.9700). For China First Heavy Industries the two are ¥2.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China First Heavy Industries worth?
The market values China First Heavy Industries at about 21.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.09; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.9700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601106?
Our models span a range for China First Heavy Industries: cautious scenario ¥0.5700, base ¥0.9700, optimistic ¥1.44 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price ¥3.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
Balance-sheet figures for China First Heavy Industries (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −1.4%, debt of 1.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601106 from its 52-week high?
China First Heavy Industries trades at ¥3.09, about 53% below its 52-week high of ¥6.60 and 17% above the low of ¥2.63 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.9700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China First Heavy Industries?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China First Heavy Industries stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price ¥3.09, calculated fair value ¥0.9700 (−69%), Quality Score 41/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601106 calculated?
We run China First Heavy Industries through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥0.9700, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. China First Heavy Industries itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with China First Heavy Industries right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (¥0.5700 to ¥1.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of China First Heavy Industries

How large is the market capitalisation of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
The market capitalisation of China First Heavy Industries is 21.2B CNY (≈ $3.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China First Heavy Industries is 2.41 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
Earnings per share at China First Heavy Industries are ¥−0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
The dividend yield of China First Heavy Industries is 1.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
The net margin of China First Heavy Industries is −3.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China First Heavy Industries is −1.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China First Heavy Industries is −3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
The operating margin of China First Heavy Industries is 3.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
Revenue at China First Heavy Industries is growing +7.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −25.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
Earnings per share at China First Heavy Industries are growing −95.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China First Heavy Industries (601106) carry?
The net debt of China First Heavy Industries is 9.4B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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