EN DE
Watch China First Heavy Industries for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes.
Data-driven stock valuation

China First Heavy Industries (601106) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of China First Heavy Industries stock ¥1.20, price ¥2.87, upside -58.2%, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with one Yes, for free

Industrials CN · ISIN CNE100000L48

CF China First Heavy Industries logo Thin data Oct 27, 2026

China First Heavy Industries

601106 · SHG
Very expensive, weak qualityPrice far above fair value, weak quality and no uptrend.Main risk: Currently loss-making.

Our calculation puts a fair price 58% below what the stock costs today.

Generates free cash flow
Quality 44/100
Fair value ¥1.20 · Strongly overvalued (−58.2%)
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −13.2 %/yr in CNY)
Loss-making · -2.2% net margin (TTM)
High debt
Trails peers (2/13)
Narrow moat 20/100 · thin data
Thin data

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥6.60 ¥2.20 Fair Value ¥1.20 May 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥2.20 – ¥6.60 · fair‑value band ¥0.7600 – ¥1.72 · the ¥2.87 price screens above the ¥1.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 27, 2026.

Follow China First Heavy Industries in your weekly email

Every Wednesday you see whether China First Heavy Industries is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.

We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Company profile

China First Heavy Industries manufactures and sells technical equipment in the People's Republic of China and internationally.

Show moreShow less

The company offers nuclear power equipment; petrochemical equipment, such as coal liquefaction, and hydrogenation reactors, PTA and ethylene oxide reactor, oversized heat exchangers, coal gasifiers, etc.; metallurgical equipment, including continuous casting machine, converters and electric furnaces, cold and hot strip rolling mill, sectional beam, and long product rolling mill, shearing lines, plate levelers, slab sizing presses, and coilers, etc.; forging equipment comprising mechanical, hot die forging, stretch levelers, and large hydraulic presses; and engineering equipment, such as mining excavators, shield tunneling machines, plate bending, and roller mills.

It also provides spare parts and special tolls; design service; product transportation and insurance service; technical guidance and training service; product installation and debugging services; after-sale maintenance services; and warehouse and storage services.

In addition, the company engages in heavy equipment technology development; manufacturing of electrical products; glass fiber and product; and wind power services.

Further, the company offers material technology research and development, and promotion services; import and export services; technical development, consultation, and exchange services, technology transfer and promotion services; international marketing business; and manufacture and sale of concrete structural, and technical services.

It serves nuclear power, petrochemicals, hydrogenation, metallurgy sectors China First Heavy Industries was formerly known as First Heavy Machinery Works. The company was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Qiqihar, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

China First Heavy Industries (601106) currently trades at ¥2.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.20, 58.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Show more

Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥1.20 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the ¥2.87 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.2900, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥0.7600 (bear) to ¥1.72 (bull), the price of ¥2.87 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

China First Heavy Industries reported revenue of 9.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 23.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −19.3%/yr. Reported net income was −311M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 19.7B CNY (≈ $3.0B) Mid · P/S ratio 2.14 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.0300 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin −2.2% · Return on equity −1.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.1% · Operating margin 4.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 20 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −58%, 601106 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥0.7600 Fair Value ¥1.20 Bull ¥1.72
Price ¥2.87 · Upside -58.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF ¥1.03 ¥1.59 ¥2.34 80
Growth DCF ¥1.07 ¥1.59 ¥2.27 78
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥0.7300 ¥1.20 ¥1.72 75
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥1.03 ¥1.59 ¥2.34 80
5Y Revenue Exit ¥0.6400 ¥1.05 ¥1.54 72
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥0.7300 ¥1.20 ¥1.72 75
10Y Revenue Exit ¥0.7600 ¥1.14 ¥1.59 67
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥0.8300 ¥1.24 ¥1.72 68
Multiples
EV/EBITDA n/a ¥0.0400 >¥0.1600 62
EV/Revenue n/a n/a ¥0.1900 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.2100 ¥0.2900 ¥0.4300 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥1.07 ¥1.59 ¥2.27 78
Rev-Margin DCF ¥0.6400 ¥1.07 ¥1.54 72

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 7
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 60
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 36
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 14
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 86
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 56
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 25
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 14
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 86
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 18/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−40.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.0% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.6% (2020) → −0.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+26.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.1% a year for the price.

601106 screens overvalued: fair value 58% below the price. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →

Compare China First Heavy Industries with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 809 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −58.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −0.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −2.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 4.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −22.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.60× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.81× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 2.09× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow 31.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 31.3× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 33
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)20 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)31 · sector 28

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Cummins Inc CMI $522.13 $359.16 −31% vs 601106
SIE SIE €261.40 €149.56 −43% vs 601106
Illinois Tool Works Inc ITW $275.93 $153.97 −44% vs 601106
Sandvik AB SAND kr 353.30 kr 194.33 −45% vs 601106
Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH $904.43 $495.17 −45% vs 601106
AMETEK, Inc AME $242.81 $125.77 −48% vs 601106
Eaton Corporation ETN $371.92 $174.39 −53% vs 601106
Emerson Electric Co EMR $161.70 $62.85 −61% vs 601106
Rockwell Automation, Inc ROK $429.89 $140.20 −67% vs 601106
GE Vernova Inc GEV $855.12 $142.61 −83% vs 601106

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Industrials stocks →

Try a ready-made strategy

Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.

🥇 Backtested Best 🏆 Big Names ⭐ Top Rated 💎 Quality on Sale 🚀 Profitable Growth 🧊 Quality Compounders 💵 Dividend Stars 📈 Strong Momentum 📉 Fallen Angels ⚖️ Deeply Undervalued 🔍 Small-Cap Gems 🏰 Moat at a Fair Price 💼 Insider Buying 🎩 Buffett-Style Quality 📚 Peter Lynch GARP 🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula 🛡️ Graham Defensive

Discover tools

For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China First Heavy Industries Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601106

Frequently asked questions

Is China First Heavy Industries (601106) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.20 versus a price of ¥2.87, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 601106?
Our model-based fair value for China First Heavy Industries is ¥1.20 (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥2.87.
What is the quality score of 601106?
China First Heavy Industries has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.20 (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.7600, optimistic scenario ¥1.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China First Heavy Industries stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.20, about −58% upside versus a price of ¥2.87 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.7600, optimistic scenario ¥1.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
China First Heavy Industries reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does China First Heavy Industries pay a dividend?
China First Heavy Industries currently shows a dividend yield of 1.57% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China First Heavy Industries would have to grow free cash flow by +26.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -13.2 % per year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 601106 use?
Our models discount China First Heavy Industries at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.61, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China First Heavy Industries that is +26.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China First Heavy Industries (601106) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China First Heavy Industries grew -13.2 % a year. The price currently implies +26.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China First Heavy Industries (601106) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China First Heavy Industries (+26.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.20 %: that much free cash flow China First Heavy Industries produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China First Heavy Industries it is ¥1.20 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of ¥2.87. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China First Heavy Industries stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 601106 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥2.87, fair value ¥1.20, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601106?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥2.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.20). For China First Heavy Industries the two are ¥1.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China First Heavy Industries worth?
The market values China First Heavy Industries at about 19.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is ¥2.87; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601106?
Our models span a range for China First Heavy Industries: cautious scenario ¥0.7600, base ¥1.20, optimistic ¥1.72 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price ¥2.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
Balance-sheet figures for China First Heavy Industries (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity −1.3%, debt of 1.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601106 from its 52-week high?
China First Heavy Industries trades at ¥2.87, about 57% below its 52-week high of ¥6.60 and 3% above the low of ¥2.79 (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China First Heavy Industries?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China First Heavy Industries stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price ¥2.87, calculated fair value ¥1.20 (−58%), Quality Score 44/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601106 calculated?
We run China First Heavy Industries through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. China First Heavy Industries itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was ¥2.87. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.20, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China First Heavy Industries right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (¥0.7600 to ¥1.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of China First Heavy Industries

How large is the market capitalisation of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
The market capitalisation of China First Heavy Industries is 19.7B CNY (≈ $3.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China First Heavy Industries is 2.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
Earnings per share at China First Heavy Industries are ¥−0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
The dividend yield of China First Heavy Industries is 1.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
The net margin of China First Heavy Industries is −2.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China First Heavy Industries is −1.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China First Heavy Industries is −3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
The operating margin of China First Heavy Industries is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
Revenue at China First Heavy Industries is growing −22.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −25.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China First Heavy Industries (601106)?
Earnings per share at China First Heavy Industries are growing −95.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China First Heavy Industries (601106) carry?
The net debt of China First Heavy Industries is 9.4B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed

Watch China First Heavy Industries in the live analysis

One click puts China First Heavy Industries on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 28,000+ stock screener.

Watch for free →

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.