AIA Group Limited (81299) Fair Value & Analysis
Financials · HK · Market cap HK$935B (≈ $119B) · ISIN US0013172053
What is AIA Group Limited really worth?
A solid business, but trading 930% above our fair value of HK$6.45.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$7.65 to HK$6.45 (−15.7%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price −0.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$9.94). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$4.41 to HK$9.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
39‑month range HK$27.03 – HK$79.42 · fair‑value band HK$4.41 – HK$9.94 · the HK$66.45 price screens above the HK$6.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
AIA Group Limited (81299) currently trades at HK$66.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$6.45, implying the stock looks roughly 929.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$4.30 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$66.45 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$2.06, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, AIA Group Limited generated revenue of HK$26.2B at a net margin of 23.8%. Revenue grew 6.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.9%. Net debt stands at HK$11.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$4.41 (bear case) to HK$9.94 (bull case); at HK$66.45, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financials peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at −90%, 81299 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$4.30) versus Asset-Based (HK$2.06). Highest evidence: Residual Income (68).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
AIA Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance based financial services in Hong Kong. The company offers life insurance, accident, and health insurance and savings plans; and employee benefits, credit life, and pension services to corporate clients.
Full company description
AIA Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance based financial services in Hong Kong. The company offers life insurance, accident, and health insurance and savings plans; and employee benefits, credit life, and pension services to corporate clients. It is also involved in the distribution of investment and other financial services products. It sells its products through a network of agents and partners in Mainland China, Macau, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Brunei, Vietnam, and India. AIA Group Limited was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AIA Group Limited reported revenue of HK$32.6B in FY2025 versus HK$46.9B in FY2021, a compound −8.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$6.2B in FY2025, compounding −4.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −0.4 % · buybacks/dilution +0.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
81299 screens 930% overvalued. Compare with Unum Group →
Peer Group
Financials · 3319 stocks
How this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Life & Health Insurance” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)
Valuation Multiples vs Financials median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Life & Health Insurance stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unum Group UNMA | $21.65 | $37.34 | +73% |
| Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 82318 | HK$48.18 | HK$61.00 | +27% |
| Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation FMCKK | $13.00 | $26.00 | +100% |
| CGABL CGABL | $16.15 | $10.52 | −35% |
| American Financial Group AFGE | $16.12 | $13.69 | −15% |
| AIZN AIZN | $18.44 | $22.31 | +21% |
| Reinsurance Group RZB | $25.34 | $43.96 | +73% |
| MGRB MGRB | $16.13 | $23.73 | +47% |
| Affiliated Managers Group MGR | $19.72 | $35.70 | +81% |
| BOCHGR BOCHGR | €10.50 | €11.80 | +12% |
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