Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Applied Digital Corporation stock $3.25, price $17.82, upside -81.8%, quality 20 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.8800 – $49.65 · fair‑value band $2.42 – $4.85 · the $17.82 price screens above the $3.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 31, 2026.
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Applied Digital Corporation designs, develops, and operates digital infrastructure solutions to high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence industries in North America. It operates through: Data Center Hosting Business, and HPC Hosting Business.
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The company offers infrastructure services to crypto mining customers; and GPU computing solutions for critical workloads related to AI, machine learning, and other HPC tasks. It also engages in the designing, constructing, and managing of data centers to support HPC applications.
The company was formerly known as Applied Blockchain, Inc. and changed its name to Applied Digital Corporation in November 2022. Applied Digital Corporation has an lease agreement with CoreWeave for an additional 150MW at its Polaris Forge 1 Campus in Ellendale, North Dakota.
Applied Digital Corporation is based in Dallas, Texas.
Stock analysis
Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) currently trades at $17.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.25, 81.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 81/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $2.42 (bear) to $4.85 (bull), the price of $17.82 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Applied Digital Corporation reported revenue of $611M in FY2026 versus $8.5M in FY2022, a compound +190.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$244M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $5.4B Mid · P/S ratio 6.70 · EPS (TTM) $−1.62 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −53.0% · Return on equity −13.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −8.5% · Operating margin −18.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 8 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 35% fair-value upside, at −82%, APLD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$2.42Fair Value $3.25Bull$4.85
Price $17.82 · Upside -81.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham)$2.85$3.82$5.7154
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$2.85$3.82$5.7154
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.28/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+183.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+122.6%
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+62.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−244.4% (2022) → −38.7% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Live AI and HPC capacity under multi-year leases fuels rapid revenue growth, yet the core weakness remains deep unprofitability and rising debt driven by expansion costs.
Main risk: Financing needs outpacing revenue growth would prevent conversion of the contracted backlog into sustainable cash flow and strain operations.
Applied Digital is already delivering hundreds of megawatts of live AI and HPC capacity backed by multi-year leases that drove revenue more than fourfold in the latest quarter, yet expansion costs keep it deeply unprofitable with rising debt. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the company convert its contracted backlog into sustainable cash flow before financing needs outpace revenue growth, or will execution risks cap the upside?
Compare Applied Digital Corporation with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 485 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score20 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−81.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−53.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−18.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)322.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.79× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper
P/B3.01× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)6.15× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.83× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 43
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)2· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Applied Digital Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/APLD
Frequently asked questions
Is Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.25 versus a price of $17.82, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of APLD?
Our model-based fair value for Applied Digital Corporation is $3.25 (as of Oct 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $17.82.
What is the quality score of APLD?
Applied Digital Corporation has a Quality Score of 20/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Applied Digital Corporation (APLD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.25 (as of Oct 31, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.42, optimistic scenario $4.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Applied Digital Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.25, about −82% upside versus a price of $17.82 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.42, optimistic scenario $4.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Applied Digital Corporation (APLD)?
Applied Digital Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $872M (latest available figure, as of Oct 31, 2026).
Does Applied Digital Corporation pay a dividend?
Applied Digital Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 0.11% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 31, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Applied Digital Corporation (APLD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Applied Digital Corporation it is $3.25 per share (as of Oct 31, 2026), against a price of $17.82. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Applied Digital Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 31, 2026, APLD trades above its calculated fair value: price $17.82, fair value $3.25, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of APLD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.25). For Applied Digital Corporation the two are $14.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Applied Digital Corporation worth?
The market values Applied Digital Corporation at about $5.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 31, 2026). Per share that is $17.82; our models calculate a fair value of $3.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about APLD?
Our models span a range for Applied Digital Corporation: cautious scenario $2.42, base $3.25, optimistic $4.85 per share (as of Oct 31, 2026, price $17.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of APLD?
The PEG ratio of Applied Digital Corporation is 1.83 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 31, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Applied Digital Corporation (APLD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Applied Digital Corporation (as of Oct 31, 2026): return on equity −13.6%, debt of 2.79 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 20/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is APLD from its 52-week high?
Applied Digital Corporation trades at $17.82, about 64% below its 52-week high of $49.65 and at the low of $17.82 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Applied Digital Corporation?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Applied Digital Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 31, 2026: price $17.82, calculated fair value $3.25 (−82%), Quality Score 20/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of APLD calculated?
We run Applied Digital Corporation through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Applied Digital Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Applied Digital Corporation (APLD)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $17.82. Our model-based fair value is $3.25, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Applied Digital Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (20/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($2.42 to $4.85) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Applied Digital Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Applied Digital Corporation (APLD)?
The market capitalisation of Applied Digital Corporation is $5.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Applied Digital Corporation (APLD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Applied Digital Corporation is 6.70 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Applied Digital Corporation (APLD)?
Earnings per share at Applied Digital Corporation are $−1.62. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Applied Digital Corporation (APLD)?
The dividend yield of Applied Digital Corporation is 0.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Applied Digital Corporation (APLD)?
The net margin of Applied Digital Corporation is −53.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Applied Digital Corporation (APLD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Applied Digital Corporation is −13.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Applied Digital Corporation (APLD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Applied Digital Corporation is −8.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Applied Digital Corporation (APLD)?
The operating margin of Applied Digital Corporation is −18.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Applied Digital Corporation (APLD)?
Revenue at Applied Digital Corporation is growing +322% versus a year earlier (3y avg +123%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) generate?
The free cash flow of Applied Digital Corporation is −$2.8B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) carry?
The net debt of Applied Digital Corporation is $3.5B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 31, 2026