Capita plc (CTAGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Capita plc $0.35, price $3.50, upside -90.0%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1600 – $4.56 · fair‑value band $0.2600 – $0.5300 · the $3.50 price screens above the $0.3500 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Capita plc operates as an outsourcer that supports clients across the public and private sectors in the United Kingdom, India, South Africa, and the rest of Europe. It operates through two divisions: Capita Public Service and Capita Experience.
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Capita plc operates as an outsourcer that supports clients across the public and private sectors in the United Kingdom, India, South Africa, and the rest of Europe. It operates through two divisions: Capita Public Service and Capita Experience. The company offers central government services, including intelligent automation; citizen experience; customer communications and digital services; operations, and transformation; learning and development; procurement; and public services procurement framework services. It also provides local government services, such as building resilient; digital operations; financial transformation; housing; local education authority software; planning, building control, and regulatory; property asset; and revenue and benefits services. In addition, the company offers customer journey mapping, behavioral science, and data and insight services; AI solutions; defense training and people development, data transformation and science, and AI services for defense; software solutions and specialist support services for education; learning experience and technologies, and organizational and learning transformation services; and administration and software, consulting services, and data solutions for pensions. Further, it provides health solutions, such as digitally enabled clinical administrative services, as well as health technology, including data science, automation, and AI. Additionally, the company offers customer service, contact center, collections, and data analytics services for telecoms, media, and technology companies; customer service solutions for the utility sector; and financial services, such as retail, pensions, and mortgages solutions. The company was formerly known as The Capita Group plc and changed its name to Capita plc in January 2012. Capita plc was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Capita plc (CTAGF) currently trades at $3.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3500, 90.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.2600 (bear) to $0.5300 (bull), the price of $3.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Capita plc reported revenue of £2.2B in FY2025 versus £3.2B in FY2021, a compound −8.9%/yr. Reported net income was −£164M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $398M · P/S ratio 0.18 · EPS (TTM) $−1.92 · Net margin −7.5% · Return on equity −139% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.9% · Operating margin 10.7% · Revenue (TTM) £2.3B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −90%, CTAGF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.2600Fair Value $0.3500Bull $0.5300
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −11.1% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.0% (2020) → −4.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Capita plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CTAGF
Frequently asked questions
Is Capita plc (CTAGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.3500 versus a price of $3.50, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CTAGF?
Our model-based fair value for Capita plc is $0.3500 (as of Jul 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.50.
What is the quality score of CTAGF?
Capita plc has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Capita plc (CTAGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.3500 (as of Jul 15, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2600, optimistic scenario $0.5300. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Capita plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.3500, about −90% upside versus a price of $3.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2600, optimistic scenario $0.5300. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Capita plc (CTAGF)?
Capita plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £2.3B (latest available figure, as of Jul 15, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Capita plc (CTAGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Capita plc it is $0.3500 per share (as of Jul 15, 2026), against a price of $3.50. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Capita plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Jul 15, 2026, CTAGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.50, fair value $0.3500, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CTAGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.3500). For Capita plc the two are $3.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Capita plc worth?
The market values Capita plc at about $398M (market capitalisation, as of Jul 15, 2026). Per share that is $3.50; our models calculate a fair value of $0.3500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CTAGF?
Our models span a range for Capita plc: cautious scenario $0.2600, base $0.3500, optimistic $0.5300 per share (as of Jul 15, 2026, price $3.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is CTAGF from its 52-week high?
Capita plc trades at $3.50, about 23% below its 52-week high of $4.56 and at the low of $3.50 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.3500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Capita plc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Cintas Corporation, Thomson Reuters Corporation, Copart, Inc, Global Payments Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Capita plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Jul 15, 2026: price $3.50, calculated fair value $0.3500 (−90%), Quality Score 39/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CTAGF calculated?
We run Capita plc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.3500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Capita plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Capita plc (CTAGF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $3.50. Our model-based fair value is $0.3500, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Capita plc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.5300). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.2600 to $0.5300) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Capita plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Capita plc (CTAGF)?
The market capitalisation of Capita plc is $398M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Capita plc (CTAGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Capita plc is 0.18 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Capita plc (CTAGF)?
Earnings per share at Capita plc are $−1.92. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Capita plc (CTAGF)?
The net margin of Capita plc is −7.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Capita plc (CTAGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Capita plc is −139% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Capita plc (CTAGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Capita plc is −2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Capita plc (CTAGF)?
The operating margin of Capita plc is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Capita plc (CTAGF)?
Revenue at Capita plc is growing −2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Capita plc (CTAGF)?
Earnings per share at Capita plc are growing −93.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Capita plc (CTAGF) generate?
The free cash flow of Capita plc is −£4.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Capita plc (CTAGF) carry?
The net debt of Capita plc is £193M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Jul 15, 2026