Hang Lung Group Ltd (HNLGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Hang Lung Group Ltd $18.90, price $7.93, upside +138.3%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.56 – $12.97 · fair‑value band $5.87 – $30.19 · the $7.93 price screens below the $18.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Hang Lung Group Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a property developer in Hong Kong and Mainland China. It operates through Property Leasing, Property Sales, and Hotels segments. The company develops properties for sale and lease, such as retail, office, residential and serviced houses and apartments.
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Hang Lung Group Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a property developer in Hong Kong and Mainland China. It operates through Property Leasing, Property Sales, and Hotels segments. The company develops properties for sale and lease, such as retail, office, residential and serviced houses and apartments. It also operates hotels; and shopping malls, office and industrial premises, residential premises, and car parking bays. In addition, it offers property management; financial; apartment operation and management; management; property agency; and hotel investment services, as well as property investment services for rental income. Hang Lung Group Limited was incorporated in 1960 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR (HNLGY) currently trades at $7.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.90, implying the stock looks roughly 58.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $31.00 per share, and 15 of the 16 models we run sit above the $7.93 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $7.87, and 1 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.87 (bear) to $30.19 (bull), the price of $7.93 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR reported revenue of HK$10.4B in FY2025 versus HK$10.9B in FY2021, a compound −1.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.4B in FY2025, compounding −14.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.2B · P/E ratio 12.4 · P/S ratio 1.63 · EPS (TTM) $0.6400 · Dividend yield 10.8% · Net margin 13.2% · Return on equity 1.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 138%, HNLGY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.87Fair Value $18.90Bull $30.19
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.65/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+9.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)10.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−21.9% vs 6.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−5% → 59%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 530 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+12.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.6% · Below median
Return on assets1.7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)13.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)59.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)10.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.51× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HNLGY
Frequently asked questions
Is Hang Lung Group Ltd (HNLGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.90 versus a price of $7.93, about +138% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HNLGY?
Our model-based fair value for Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR is $18.90 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.93.
What is the quality score of HNLGY?
Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hang Lung Group Ltd (HNLGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.90 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.87, optimistic scenario $30.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.90, about +138% upside versus a price of $7.93 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.87, optimistic scenario $30.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hang Lung Group Ltd (HNLGY)?
Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$10.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.84% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hang Lung Group Ltd (HNLGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR it is $18.90 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $7.93. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, HNLGY trades below its calculated fair value: price $7.93, fair value $18.90, a gap of about +138% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HNLGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.90). For Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR the two are $10.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR at about $2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $7.93; our models calculate a fair value of $18.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HNLGY?
Our models span a range for Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $5.87, base $18.90, optimistic $30.19 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $7.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HNLGY?
Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.4 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.90 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.9, P/B 0.2, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 9.4.
What is the PEG ratio of HNLGY?
The PEG ratio of Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR is 2.91 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hang Lung Group Ltd (HNLGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 1.6%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HNLGY from its 52-week high?
Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR trades at $7.93, about 25% below its 52-week high of $10.61 and 2% above the low of $7.80 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $7.93, calculated fair value $18.90 (+138%), Quality Score 64/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HNLGY calculated?
We run Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR currently trades 58 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hang Lung Group Ltd (HNLGY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $7.93. Our model-based fair value is $18.90, about +138% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($5.87 to $30.19). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Hang Lung Group Ltd (HNLGY) come from?
Earnings per share at Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR grew +8.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.6 %, EBIT margin −1.7 %, tax rate −3.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Hang Lung Group Ltd (HNLGY)?
The market capitalisation of Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR is $2.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hang Lung Group Ltd (HNLGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR is 1.63 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hang Lung Group Ltd (HNLGY)?
Earnings per share at Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR are $0.6400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hang Lung Group Ltd (HNLGY)?
The dividend yield of Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR is 10.8% (payout 134%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hang Lung Group Ltd (HNLGY)?
The net margin of Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR is 13.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hang Lung Group Ltd (HNLGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR is 1.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hang Lung Group Ltd (HNLGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hang Lung Group Ltd (HNLGY)?
The operating margin of Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR is 59.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hang Lung Group Ltd (HNLGY)?
Revenue at Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR is growing −3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hang Lung Group Ltd (HNLGY)?
Earnings per share at Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR are growing −6.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hang Lung Group Ltd (HNLGY) generate?
The free cash flow of Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR is $4.0B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hang Lung Group Ltd (HNLGY) carry?
The net debt of Hang Lung Group Ltd ADR is $48.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 12.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 2, 2026