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Rural Funds Group (RFNDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Rural Funds Group $0.21, price $1.50, upside -86.0%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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RF
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Rural Funds Group
RFNDF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $0.2100 · Strongly overvalued (−86.0%)
!Quality 53/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +9.9 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 45.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!7.8% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Moderate moat 56/100
!The models disagree: range $0.2100 to $0.8400
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.6697 – $1.71 · fair‑value band $0.2100 – $0.8400 · the $1.50 price screens above the $0.2100 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Rural Funds Group is an agricultural Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) listed on the ASX under the code RFF. RFF owns a diversified portfolio of Australian agricultural assets which are leased predominantly to corporate agricultural operators.
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Rural Funds Group is an agricultural Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) listed on the ASX under the code RFF. RFF owns a diversified portfolio of Australian agricultural assets which are leased predominantly to corporate agricultural operators. RFF targets distribution growth of 4% per annum by owning and improving farms that are leased to good counterparties. RFF is a stapled security, incorporating Rural Funds Trust (ARSN 112 951 578) and RF Active (ARSN 168 740 805). Rural Funds Group was incorporated Austalia.
Stock analysis
Rural Funds Group (RFNDF) currently trades at $1.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2100, 86.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $1.27 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $1.50 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $0.1100, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $0.2100 (bear) to $0.8400 (bull), the price of $1.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Rural Funds Group reported revenue of A$114M in FY2025 versus A$71.0M in FY2021, a compound +12.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$31.5M in FY2025, compounding −28.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $584M · P/E ratio 11.7 · P/S ratio 3.22 · EPS (TTM) $0.1200 · Dividend yield 7.8% · Net margin 27.6% · Return on equity 5.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −86%, RFNDF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.2100
Fair Value $0.2100
Bull $0.8400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0030 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
n/a
$0.0200
>$0.0800
77
Residual Income
$1.29
$1.22
$1.21
76
Growth DCF
n/a
$0.1100
>$0.4400
75
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
n/a
$0.0200
>$0.0800
77
5Y Revenue Exit
n/a
$0.1900
>$0.7600
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$0.8900
$2.48
72
10Y Revenue Exit
n/a
$0.1300
>$0.5200
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$0.6400
$2.35
65
Multiples
P/S Multiple
$0.7200
$0.9500
$1.19
58
P/B Multiple
$0.7200
$0.9500
$1.19
55
EV/EBIT
$0.0900
$0.5700
$1.05
58
EV/EBITDA
n/a
$0.4600
$0.9100
57
EV/Revenue
n/a
n/a
$0.1200
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.9500
$1.27
$1.89
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
n/a
$0.1100
>$0.4400
75
Rev-Margin DCF
n/a
$0.1800
>$0.7200
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$1.29
$1.22
$1.21
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
53/100
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Profitability
32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
72
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
60
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
41
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
40
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
38
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
81
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
64
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
74
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.6% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.4%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+6.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11.0% vs −7.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.67% → 43%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+44.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +41.3% a year for the price and −0.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+1.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+1.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+1.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+1.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.6%
RFNDF screens overvalued: fair value 86% below the price. Compare with Equinix, Inc →
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Specialty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equinix, Inc EQIX | $1,015 | $137.29 | −86% |
| American Tower Corporation AMT | $163.69 | $166.27 | +2% |
| Digital Realty Trust, Inc DLR | $177.18 | $127.38 | −28% |
| Iron Mountain Incorporated IRM | $111.50 | $40.40 | −64% |
| Crown Castle Inc CCI | $67.84 | $82.54 | +22% |
| SBA Communications Corporation SBAC | $162.81 | $178.33 | +10% |
| Lamar Advertising Company LAMR | $143.98 | $120.53 | −16% |
| Weyerhaeuser Company WY | $20.01 | $7.50 | −63% |
| Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc GLPI | $38.79 | $63.16 | +63% |
| Rayonier Inc RYN | $18.88 | $10.02 | −47% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Rural Funds Group (RFNDF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.2100 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $1.50, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RFNDF?
Our model-based fair value for Rural Funds Group is $0.2100 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $1.50.
What is the quality score of RFNDF?
Rural Funds Group has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rural Funds Group (RFNDF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.2100 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2100, optimistic scenario $0.8400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rural Funds Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.2100, about −86% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $1.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2100, optimistic scenario $0.8400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rural Funds Group (RFNDF)?
Rural Funds Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $139M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Rural Funds Group pay a dividend?
Rural Funds Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.80% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Rural Funds Group (RFNDF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Rural Funds Group would have to grow free cash flow by +44.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RFNDF use?
Our models discount Rural Funds Group at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.82, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Rural Funds Group that is +44.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Rural Funds Group (RFNDF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Rural Funds Group grew +9.9 % a year. The price currently implies +44.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Rural Funds Group (RFNDF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Rural Funds Group (+44.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Rural Funds Group (RFNDF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.34 %: that much free cash flow Rural Funds Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Rural Funds Group (RFNDF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rural Funds Group it is $0.2100 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.50. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Rural Funds Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, RFNDF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.50, fair value $0.2100, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RFNDF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.2100). For Rural Funds Group the two are $1.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rural Funds Group worth?
The market values Rural Funds Group at about $584M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.50; our models calculate a fair value of $0.2100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RFNDF?
Our models span a range for Rural Funds Group: cautious scenario $0.2100, base $0.2100, optimistic $0.8400 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is RFNDF from its 52-week high?
Rural Funds Group trades at $1.50, at its 52-week high of $1.50 and 29% above the low of $1.17 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.2100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rural Funds Group?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Equinix, Inc, American Tower Corporation, Digital Realty Trust, Inc, Iron Mountain Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rural Funds Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.50, calculated fair value $0.2100 (−86%), Quality Score 53/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RFNDF calculated?
We run Rural Funds Group through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.2100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Rural Funds Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rural Funds Group (RFNDF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $1.50. Our model-based fair value is $0.2100, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rural Funds Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.8400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($0.2100 to $0.8400). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Rural Funds Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Rural Funds Group (RFNDF)?
The market capitalisation of Rural Funds Group is $584M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Rural Funds Group (RFNDF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Rural Funds Group is 11.7 (as of Jun 23, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Rural Funds Group (RFNDF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rural Funds Group is 3.22 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Rural Funds Group (RFNDF)?
Earnings per share at Rural Funds Group are $0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Rural Funds Group (RFNDF)?
The dividend yield of Rural Funds Group is 7.8% (payout 97.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Rural Funds Group (RFNDF)?
The net margin of Rural Funds Group is 27.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rural Funds Group (RFNDF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rural Funds Group is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rural Funds Group (RFNDF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rural Funds Group is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rural Funds Group (RFNDF)?
The operating margin of Rural Funds Group is 53.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rural Funds Group (RFNDF)?
Revenue at Rural Funds Group is growing +10.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Rural Funds Group (RFNDF)?
Earnings per share at Rural Funds Group are growing +258% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Rural Funds Group (RFNDF) carry?
The net debt of Rural Funds Group is $803M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 58.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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