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Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (TKOMF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. $26.94, price $53.83, upside -50.0%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · US · Home Japan · ISIN JP3910660004

TM Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Tokio Marine Holdings Inc.

TKOMF · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $26.94 · Strongly overvalued (−50.0%)
!Quality 56/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +7.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 11.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓3.6% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
✓Wide moat 65/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$55.29 $7.25 Fair Value $26.94 Jul 2015 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.25 – $55.29 · fair‑value band $20.79 – $38.30 · the $53.83 price screens above the $26.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. engages in the non-life and life insurance, and financial and general businesses in Japan and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Domestic Non-Life Insurance Business, Domestic Life Insurance Business, International Insurance Business, and Financial and Other Businesses.

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Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. engages in the non-life and life insurance, and financial and general businesses in Japan and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Domestic Non-Life Insurance Business, Domestic Life Insurance Business, International Insurance Business, and Financial and Other Businesses. The company provides fire and allied lines, hull and cargo, health, personal accident, voluntary automobile, and other insurance products, as well as asset management services. It also offers investment advisory, investment trust, staffing, facility management, and nursing care services. The company was formerly known as Millea Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. in 2008. Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Stock analysis

Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (TKOMF) currently trades at $53.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.94, implying the stock looks roughly 99.8% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 26 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at high.

Scenario range: $20.79 (bear) to $38.30 (bull), the price of $53.83 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. reported revenue of ¥7.6T in FY2026 versus ¥5.8T in FY2022, a compound +7.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥987B in FY2026, compounding +23.8%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $87.3B · P/E ratio 16.9 · P/S ratio 2.20 · EPS (TTM) $3.19 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 13.1% · Return on equity 18.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −50%, TKOMF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $20.79 Fair Value $26.94 Bull $38.30
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
P/E Multiple $5,032 $6,709 $8,386 63
Residual Income $3,376 $4,443 $15,150 58
P/B Multiple $2,996 $3,995 $4,993 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple $5,032 $6,709 $8,386 63
P/B Multiple $2,996 $3,995 $4,993 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1,427 $1,912 $2,853 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $3,376 $4,443 $15,150 58

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 29
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 45
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 11
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 66
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 87
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 73/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.4% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.6% (2021) → 17.8% (2026)

TKOMF screens 100% overvalued. Compare with Chubb Limited →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 116 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 50 · Below median
Fair Value upside −50.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 18.7% · Above median
Return on assets 3.8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 11.8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 37.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −4.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.04× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B 2.52× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.64× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 6.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.74× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)75 · sector 57
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)72 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Chubb Limited CB $334.84 $235.99 −30%
The Progressive Corporation PGR $202.17 $160.75 −20%
The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV $363.04 $279.78 −23%
The Allstate Corporation ALL $227.60 $321.81 +41%
The People's Insurance Company 601319 ¥8.07 ¥9.34 +16%
Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH C$2,223 C$3,241 +46%
Intact Financial Corporation IFC C$250.54 C$167.88 −33%
Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF $162.54 $148.09 −9%
W. R. Berkley Corporation WRB $66.82 $47.22 −29%
QBE Insurance Group QBE A$22.93 A$13.78 −40%

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Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. · Fair Value
$26.94 −100%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TKOMF

Frequently asked questions

Is Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (TKOMF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $26.94 versus a price of $53.83, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TKOMF?
Our model-based fair value for Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. is $26.94 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $53.83.
What is the quality score of TKOMF?
Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (TKOMF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $26.94 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.79, optimistic scenario $38.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $26.94, about −50% upside versus a price of $53.83 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $20.79, optimistic scenario $38.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (TKOMF)?
Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥8.3T (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. pay a dividend?
Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.60% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (TKOMF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. it is $26.94 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $53.83. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TKOMF trades above its calculated fair value: price $53.83, fair value $26.94, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TKOMF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($53.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($26.94). For Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. the two are $26.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. worth?
The market values Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. at about $87.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $53.83; our models calculate a fair value of $26.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TKOMF?
Our models span a range for Tokio Marine Holdings Inc.: cautious scenario $20.79, base $26.94, optimistic $38.30 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $53.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TKOMF?
Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $26.94 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 2.5, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
What is the PEG ratio of TKOMF?
The PEG ratio of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. is 1.74 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (TKOMF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 18.7%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TKOMF from its 52-week high?
Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. trades at $53.83, about 3% below its 52-week high of $55.29 and 67% above the low of $32.27 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $26.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tokio Marine Holdings Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $53.83, calculated fair value $26.94 (−50%), Quality Score 56/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TKOMF calculated?
We run Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $26.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (TKOMF)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $53.83. Our model-based fair value is $26.94, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($38.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($20.79 to $38.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (TKOMF) come from?
Earnings per share at Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. grew +22.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.3 %, EBIT margin +8.1 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (TKOMF)?
The market capitalisation of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. is $87.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (TKOMF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. is 2.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (TKOMF)?
Earnings per share at Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. are $3.19 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (TKOMF)?
The dividend yield of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. is 3.6% (payout 60.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (TKOMF)?
The net margin of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. is 13.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (TKOMF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. is 18.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (TKOMF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (TKOMF)?
The operating margin of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. is 37.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (TKOMF)?
Revenue at Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. is growing −4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (TKOMF)?
Earnings per share at Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. are growing −48.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (TKOMF) generate?
The free cash flow of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. is ¥543B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. (TKOMF) hold?
Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. holds more cash than debt, ¥811B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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