MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc $32.09, price $30.54, upside +5.1%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.56 – $35.00 · fair‑value band $24.39 – $44.48 · the $30.54 price screens below the $32.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc., an insurance holding company, engages in the provision of insurance and financial services worldwide. It offers domestic non-life insurance; life insurance; international business; financial services; and provides risk-related services. The company was formerly known as Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Group Holdings, Inc.
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MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc., an insurance holding company, engages in the provision of insurance and financial services worldwide. It offers domestic non-life insurance; life insurance; international business; financial services; and provides risk-related services. The company was formerly known as Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. in April 2010. MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF) currently trades at $30.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.09, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.8%).
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 26 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Scenario range: $24.39 (bear) to $44.48 (bull), the price of $30.54 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc reported revenue of ¥7.3T in FY2026 versus ¥5.0T in FY2022, a compound +9.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥792B in FY2026, compounding +31.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $43.4B · P/E ratio 9.3 · P/S ratio 1.01 · EPS (TTM) $3.30 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 10.9% · Return on equity 17.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 69.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at 5%, MSADF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $24.39Fair Value $32.09Bull $44.48
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.2% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 116 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MSADF
Frequently asked questions
Is MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.09 versus a price of $30.54, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MSADF?
Our model-based fair value for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is $32.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $30.54.
What is the quality score of MSADF?
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.39, optimistic scenario $44.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.09, about +5% upside versus a price of $30.54 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $24.39, optimistic scenario $44.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥7.3T (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.95% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc it is $32.09 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $30.54. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MSADF trades below its calculated fair value: price $30.54, fair value $32.09, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MSADF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($30.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.09). For MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc the two are $1.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc worth?
The market values MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc at about $43.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $30.54; our models calculate a fair value of $32.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MSADF?
Our models span a range for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $24.39, base $32.09, optimistic $44.48 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $30.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MSADF?
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.09 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.4, P/B 1.4, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 2.0.
What is the PEG ratio of MSADF?
The PEG ratio of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is 2.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
Balance-sheet figures for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.8%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MSADF from its 52-week high?
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc trades at $30.54, about 13% below its 52-week high of $35.00 and 56% above the low of $19.56 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $30.54, calculated fair value $32.09 (+5%), Quality Score 55/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MSADF calculated?
We run MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $32.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc currently trades 5 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $30.54. Our model-based fair value is $32.09, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($24.39 to $44.48) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF) come from?
Earnings per share at MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc grew +22.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.0 %, EBIT margin +10.0 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
The market capitalisation of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is $43.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is 1.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
Earnings per share at MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc are $3.30 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
The dividend yield of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is 3.0% (payout 27.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
The net margin of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is 10.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is 17.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is 69.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
The operating margin of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is 15.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
Revenue at MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is growing +18.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
Earnings per share at MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc are growing +106% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF) generate?
The free cash flow of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is ¥735B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF) hold?
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc holds more cash than debt, ¥3.9T net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026