Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Leidos Holdings Inc stock $210, price $136, upside +54.9%, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $74.02 – $197.91 · fair‑value band $141.45 – $272.12 · the $135.68 price screens below the $210.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Leidos Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides services and solutions for government and commercial customers in the United States and internationally.
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The National Security & Digital segment provides national security software; services by using artificial intelligence and machine learning to coordinate sea, ground, air, and space to help warfighters; offensive, defensive, and physical cyber operation solutions; intelligence analysis, operational support, logistics operations, security, linguistics, force production, biometrics, chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosives, energetics, training, and other services; and Digital Modernization and transformation services.
The Health & Civil segment offers air traffic control systems; health mission software; managed health services; infrastructure management and operation; logistical operations and information technology support; and life science research and development support services.
The Commercial & International segment provides power grid engineering and design, grid modernization, utility planning and consulting, energy management and efficiency, technology-driven innovation, and software and application development; people scanners, computed tomography carry-on baggage scanners, checked baggage scanners, and explosive trace detectors; mobile, non-intrusive ports and borders inspection systems; and open-architecture platform that transforms airport security by integrating disparate devices and technologies into a unified management system.
The Defense Systems segment offers air and missile defense, maritime, aerospace, and cyber and threat systems; offers airborne training, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions; and provides space-based electro-optic infrared systems, multi/hyperspectral, electronic warfare and signals intelligence, and communications payloads.
Leidos Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS) currently trades at $135.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $210.19, implying the stock looks roughly 35% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $232.66 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the $135.68 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $28.42, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $141.45 (bear) to $272.12 (bull), the price of $135.68 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Leidos Holdings Inc reported revenue of $17.2B in FY2025 versus $13.7B in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +17.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $17.2B Large · P/E ratio 12.1 · P/S ratio 0.98 · EPS (TTM) $11.19 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 7.8% · Return on equity 27.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 20% fair-value upside, at 55%, LDOS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$141.45Fair Value $210.19Bull$272.12
Price $135.68 · Upside +54.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($8.04 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.7M and none bought.
SaleGary Stephen MayDirector2× since May 7, 2026: 2,484 shares, avg. $136.01$337,851Sep 1, 2026
SaleNoel B GeerDirector10,000 shares at $140.66$1.4MAug 11, 2026
SaleElizabeth A PorterSector President3× since Dec 19, 2025: 8,000 shares, avg. $179.66$1.4MApr 7, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 25 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.9% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+21.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.0% vs 14.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 12%
2025 sits 122% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.8% a year for the price and +1.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Contract stickiness in government IT and repeated defense contract wins support moderate moat strength while health segment exposure creates ongoing federal spending headwinds.
Main risk: Leidos generates approximately 87 percent of revenue from US government contracts and could face reduced demand or lower margins if budgets are cut, priorities shift or procurement rules change.
Bull case: Leidos could deepen its AI partnerships and cleared-government expertise to deliver trusted, mission-critical solutions that agencies cannot easily replicate in-house.
Bear case: Sustained budget pressure or rapid AI commoditization could erode contract volumes and force Leidos to compete on price in lower-margin digital work.
Leidos keeps landing sizable defense and cyber contracts that build on its government IT services strengths. At the same time the health segment creates ongoing headwinds tied to federal spending priorities. Will the national security momentum more than compensate for those pressures?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 479 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+54.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)27.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)7.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)11.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.94× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)12.1× · Cheapest 25%
P/B3.51× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $210.19 versus a price of $135.68, about +55% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LDOS?
Our model-based fair value for Leidos Holdings Inc is $210.19 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $135.68.
What is the quality score of LDOS?
Leidos Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $210.19 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $141.45, optimistic scenario $272.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Leidos Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $210.19, about +55% upside versus a price of $135.68 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $141.45, optimistic scenario $272.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS)?
Leidos Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $17.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Leidos Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Leidos Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.25% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Leidos Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -2.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.9 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LDOS use?
Our models discount Leidos Holdings Inc at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.54, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Leidos Holdings Inc that is -2.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Leidos Holdings Inc grew +6.9 % a year. The price currently implies -2.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Leidos Holdings Inc (-2.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.43 %: that much free cash flow Leidos Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Leidos Holdings Inc it is $210.19 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $135.68. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Leidos Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, LDOS trades below its calculated fair value: price $135.68, fair value $210.19, a gap of about +55% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LDOS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($135.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($210.19). For Leidos Holdings Inc the two are $74.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Leidos Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Leidos Holdings Inc at about $17.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $135.68; our models calculate a fair value of $210.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LDOS?
Our models span a range for Leidos Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $141.45, base $210.19, optimistic $272.12 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $135.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LDOS?
Leidos Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.1 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $210.19 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 19.2. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 3.5, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 8.7.
What is the PEG ratio of LDOS?
The PEG ratio of Leidos Holdings Inc is 2.46 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Leidos Holdings Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 27.8%, debt of 0.94 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LDOS from its 52-week high?
Leidos Holdings Inc trades at $135.68, about 31% below its 52-week high of $197.91 and 36% above the low of $100.00 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $210.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Leidos Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Leidos Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $135.68, calculated fair value $210.19 (+55%), Quality Score 74/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LDOS calculated?
We run Leidos Holdings Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $210.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Leidos Holdings Inc currently trades 35% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $135.68. Our model-based fair value is $210.19, about +55% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Leidos Holdings Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($141.45). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (74/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($141.45 to $272.12) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS) come from?
Earnings per share at Leidos Holdings Inc grew +11.7 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.0 %, EBIT margin +5.4 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Leidos Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS)?
The market capitalisation of Leidos Holdings Inc is $17.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Leidos Holdings Inc is 0.98 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS)?
Earnings per share at Leidos Holdings Inc are $11.19 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS)?
The dividend yield of Leidos Holdings Inc is 1.2% (payout 15.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS)?
The net margin of Leidos Holdings Inc is 7.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Leidos Holdings Inc is 27.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Leidos Holdings Inc is 10.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS)?
The operating margin of Leidos Holdings Inc is 11.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS)?
Revenue at Leidos Holdings Inc is growing +7.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS)?
Earnings per share at Leidos Holdings Inc are growing −6.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS) carry?
The net debt of Leidos Holdings Inc is $4.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026