Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (003040) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Chutian Dragon Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value ¥3.95 · Strongly overvalued (−77%)
!Quality 56/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −0.5 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -2.6% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 0.7%
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·0.06% dividend yield
!Trails peers(3/12)
!Narrow moat19/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Watch Chutian Dragon Co Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.81 – ¥40.92 · fair‑value band ¥2.63 – ¥3.95 · the ¥17.46 price screens above the ¥3.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Chutian Dragon Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in digital security and services, intelligent hardware and integrated solutions, and system platforms and operational services in China and internationally.
Show more
Chutian Dragon Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in digital security and services, intelligent hardware and integrated solutions, and system platforms and operational services in China and internationally. The company offers embedded security products, including smart cards, embedded secure elements, and embedded SIM; smart hardware, an organic combination of software and hardware products; and other software and service solutions. It serves financial institutions, mobile operators, social security institutions, and traffic operation and management institutions, etc. The company was formerly known as Guangdong Chutian Dragon Smart Card Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Chutian Dragon Co., Ltd. in 2018. Chutian Dragon Co., Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Dongguan, China.
Stock analysis
Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (003040) currently trades at ¥17.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.95, implying the stock looks roughly 342.5% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥2.74 per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the ¥17.46 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at ¥0.4300, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥2.63 (bear) to ¥3.95 (bull), the price of ¥17.46 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Chutian Dragon Co Ltd reported revenue of 998M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.5%/yr. Reported net income was 7.2M CNY in FY2025, compounding −41.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 8.1B CNY (≈ $1.2B) · P/S ratio 6.19 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.0500 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity −1.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% · Operating margin −9.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −66% fair-value upside, at −77%, 003040 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.1300 to ¥2.75). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥2.63Fair Value ¥3.95Bull ¥3.95
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−41.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−41.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → −1%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.0%/yr over ~6Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+51.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 338 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−37% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.57× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.92× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF16.0× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 64
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)1· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chutian Dragon Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/003040
Frequently asked questions
Is Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (003040) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.95 versus a price of ¥17.46, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 003040?
Our model-based fair value for Chutian Dragon Co Ltd is ¥3.95 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥17.46.
What is the quality score of 003040?
Chutian Dragon Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (003040)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.95 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.63, optimistic scenario ¥3.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chutian Dragon Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.95, about −77% upside versus a price of ¥17.46 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.63, optimistic scenario ¥3.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (003040)?
Chutian Dragon Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 903M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Chutian Dragon Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Chutian Dragon Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.06% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (003040)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chutian Dragon Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +51.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.5 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 003040 use?
Our models discount Chutian Dragon Co Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chutian Dragon Co Ltd that is +51.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (003040) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Chutian Dragon Co Ltd grew -0.5 % a year. The price currently implies +51.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (003040) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (+51.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (003040)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.65 %: that much free cash flow Chutian Dragon Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (003040)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chutian Dragon Co Ltd it is ¥3.95 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of ¥17.46. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chutian Dragon Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 003040 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥17.46, fair value ¥3.95, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 003040?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥17.46); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.95). For Chutian Dragon Co Ltd the two are ¥13.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chutian Dragon Co Ltd worth?
The market values Chutian Dragon Co Ltd at about 8.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is ¥17.46; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 003040?
Our models span a range for Chutian Dragon Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥2.63, base ¥3.95, optimistic ¥3.95 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price ¥17.46). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (003040)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −1.6%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 003040 from its 52-week high?
Chutian Dragon Co Ltd trades at ¥17.46, about 42% below its 52-week high of ¥29.87 and 50% above the low of ¥11.61 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chutian Dragon Co Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, SK hynix Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chutian Dragon Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price ¥17.46, calculated fair value ¥3.95 (−77%), Quality Score 56/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 003040 calculated?
We run Chutian Dragon Co Ltd through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥3.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Chutian Dragon Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Chutian Dragon Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.95). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Chutian Dragon Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (003040)?
The market capitalisation of Chutian Dragon Co Ltd is 8.1B CNY (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (003040)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chutian Dragon Co Ltd is 6.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (003040)?
Earnings per share at Chutian Dragon Co Ltd are ¥−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (003040)?
The dividend yield of Chutian Dragon Co Ltd is 0.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (003040)?
The net margin of Chutian Dragon Co Ltd is 0.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (003040)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chutian Dragon Co Ltd is −1.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (003040)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chutian Dragon Co Ltd is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (003040)?
The operating margin of Chutian Dragon Co Ltd is −9.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (003040)?
Revenue at Chutian Dragon Co Ltd is growing −36.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Chutian Dragon Co Ltd (003040) hold?
Chutian Dragon Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 575M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Chutian Dragon Co Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Chutian Dragon Co Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
