NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $5.1T
NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +11.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 56% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($178.24). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($53.60 to $178.24). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.20 – $235.47 · fair‑value band $53.60 – $178.24 · the $218.99 price screens above the $96.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) currently trades at $218.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $96.91, implying the stock looks roughly 55.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, NVIDIA Corporation generated revenue of $253B at a net margin of 63.0%. Revenue grew 85.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 114.3%. Net debt stands at $807M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $53.60 (bear case) to $178.24 (bull case); at $218.99, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -62% fair-value upside, at -56%, NVDA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($178.66) versus Dividend Discount ($0.6900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company in the United States, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments.
Full company description
NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company in the United States, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments. The Compute & Networking segment provides data center accelerated computing and networking platforms and artificial intelligence solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive markets. It sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system integrators and distributors, independent software vendors, cloud service providers, add-in board manufacturers, distributors, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, and other ecosystem participants. NVIDIA Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
NVIDIA Corporation reported revenue of $216B in FY2026 versus $26.9B in FY2022, a compound +68.3%/yr. Reported net income was $120B in FY2026, compounding +87.3%/yr from FY2022.
NVDA screens 56% overvalued. Compare with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Nvidia ends week up more than 10% as AI chip fears ease
- Nvidia, Blackstone Double Down on AI Infrastructure
Peer Group
Semiconductors · 319 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM | $398.37 | $207.49 | -48% |
| Broadcom Inc 1AVGO | €323.25 | €121.25 | -62% |
| Micron Technology, Inc ZMIC | C$52.57 | C$7.50 | -86% |
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 2,082,000 KRW | 1,109,311 KRW | -47% |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc 1AMD | €464.70 | €56.33 | -88% |
| Intel Corporation INTC | C$68.40 | C$9.82 | -86% |
| Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN | $311.46 | $59.75 | -81% |
| MediaTek Inc 2454 | 3,740 TWD | 1,163 TWD | -69% |
| SK Square Co 402340 | 1,212,000 KRW | 868,000 KRW | -28% |
| GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc 3986 | HK$917.50 | HK$540.01 | -41% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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