Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $2.2T
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
TSM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from $210.83 to $207.49 (−1.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −3.3% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 50% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 79/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($328.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($132.28 to $328.10) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $57.21 – $477.57 · fair‑value band $132.28 – $328.10 · the $418.20 price screens above the $207.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) currently trades at $418.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $207.49, implying the stock looks roughly 50.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 79/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company generated revenue of $4.1T at a net margin of 46.5%. Revenue grew 35.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 36.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.7T. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $132.28 (bear case) to $328.10 (bull case); at $418.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 105% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -62% fair-value upside, at -50%, TSM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($252.39) versus Asset-Based ($21.45). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally.
Full company description
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reported revenue of 3.8T TWD in FY2025 versus 1.6T TWD in FY2021, a compound +24.8%/yr. Reported net income was 1.7T TWD in FY2025, compounding +30.8%/yr from FY2021.
TSM screens 50% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Could Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Be the Most Critical Bottleneck in the AI Chip Boom?
- Should Investors Buy Micron Stock Instead of Taiwan Semiconductor Stock?
Peer Group
Semiconductors · 319 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 78/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | $211.80 | $96.91 | -54% |
| Broadcom Inc 1AVGO | €323.25 | €121.25 | -62% |
| Micron Technology, Inc ZMIC | C$52.57 | C$7.50 | -86% |
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 2,082,000 KRW | 1,109,311 KRW | -47% |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc 1AMD | €464.70 | €56.33 | -88% |
| Intel Corporation INTC | C$68.40 | C$9.82 | -86% |
| Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN | $311.46 | $59.75 | -81% |
| MediaTek Inc 2454 | 3,740 TWD | 1,163 TWD | -69% |
| SK Square Co 402340 | 1,212,000 KRW | 868,000 KRW | -28% |
| GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc 3986 | HK$917.50 | HK$540.01 | -41% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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